We are going into a "revaluation metrics" period, and the powers that be (and for good reasons) will make sure that the metrics is brought back to the "standard", over many many years.
1) Who are 'the powers that be'?
2) What are their 'good reasons'?
3) What do you mean by 'the standard'?
4) If you refer to central banks, or the Fed, specifically, do they really have the tools at hand to moderate the overall rate of bear decline so it's spread over several years?
5) Do you find any technical merit to the H&S in the $USD that limits its rebound?
6) Have you defined a market projection for:
a) the next year?
b) an anticipated bottom number or date of arrival?
7) Don't the weakening consumer spending numbers provide a huge warning signal, which, coupled with the lack of business spending/investment, indicates things could (intermediate & longterm) get considerably worse?
Btw, your efforts and willingness to respond to so many questions from a large audience continue to evoke admiration from these quarters.
I wish I could follow more of your specific trades but I'm experiencing my first losing year, the first time I've been down in two successive quarters, and my risk aversion has grown too great to even consider trading unless I can project rallies lasting 3 days or longer. (That's what happens when you trade what was a 'microcap' account to begin with... and leaves of absence from the market have occurred at precisely the periods I was waiting for.... and I, similar to you, rarely short).
In 2000, it was much easier, as I then traded the account of an investment club, which was large enough to quickly overcome losses that occurred in the long decline of that Autumn and post a decent gain by its end. And I did very well with this small account last year, even prior to the 9/21 low. (And I missed the first 2 weeks of that subsequent rally due to another leave of absence).
I do agree with you that nothing like a 30s Depression will occur from the market decline, but I do think a more severe recession than has been felt so far in this bear, lies ahead.
I'd appreciate it if you'd take some time for these questions. And if you have any advice for a smaller portfolio trader like myself, who has reached a point that I miss many of my own bestest calls because of my reluctance to daytrade (I'm more conducive to swing trades), I'd be a rapt listener.
Thanks for your consideration;
--Kevin
AI
Market Data 
Markets 
