Replies to post #12545 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Patrick Bateman]

Do you still use the Yahoo Tick for the Comp - it can't be right

Virtually Yours,

Pat Bateman

[adamsmith]

Hungarian Deciphered?

Zeev.

Thank you for your answers. All your posts are read and thorougly digested. Could you spend a few extra minutes on your answer below? Interpertation please? pinkish comps? Does that mean weak growth?

best regards

Adam


7. The market discounts it does not look in the rear view mirror. The "Nassacre" as explained in the Dec 29 forecast was to discount a second dip, that is done, now the market will try and see what is beyond a possible weak Christmas. By the time it sees pinkish YOY comparisons for next year and anticipates these (at higher prices), it will start and contemplate the need to rebuild balance sheets for both the consumer and corporate America, with another bear leg in the major Secular market suggested in my April 20th 2000 post on SI.

[da_cheif]

zeev i would think that the 4 year cycle low is behind us and that the upper trendline to the dows expanding triangle will now be the magnet that draws the market up...

[Sir Realist]

Hi Zeev, and thank you for your patient response. I went and searched for the 4/20/00 post you referred to. Are you sure you aren't referring to Steve's Channeling Thread on
April 20 2001?
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=15696011

I apologize for having you reiterate old discussions, but I only became a market timer in Feb 2000 when I was warning about a serious Apr 2000 dip, and again the Friday before that Hell Week. It was a few weeks after that, that I first discovered you and the turnips, and for a long time, I only checked in to see what your market calls were when I failed to see a trend change and looked for answers from wise 'old' heds like yours. Thus it was April this year before I first heard of your Nassacre call, after I'd had a frustrating 6 week run immediately preceding. And family illness caused my April leave of absence from the mkt, so I've basically been playing catchup since mid-May.

After the bottom held yesterday am, I finally gained confidence that the nearterm bottom was in. I suspect we may yet dip to the 1230-1240 region within the next 24 hours, simply because of http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=i

With FOMC meeting Tuesday and the meaningless CEO/CFO reports due Wednesday, I think we'll get to just over 1400 by Monday before the next brief pullback. And I can chart a run to 1555-1570, anticipating this quarter's peak between 9/11 and 10/3.

Longer term, I can still see considerable risk of downside for the next 12 months, but wonder what your take is on the market reaction if we actually do face the intangible of going to war with Iraq.

I read that as briefly bearish (due to endangered oil prices) but potentially concluding with it being a jump start for the next true bull market.

Your thoughts on this latter point?

Thanks in advance;

-Kevin