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Re: DewDiligence post# 490

Saturday, 12/05/2009 11:48:05 AM

Saturday, December 05, 2009 11:48:05 AM

Post# of 29617
Looks like IOC will be next up in the batter's box for an LNG deal. After that we find out if these Australian coal seam gas projects are going to work out.

Interesting article about Shell getting into China shale gas. You wonder if these huge chinese companies feel more comfortable dealing with other monster sized companies.

Guess I've finaly accepted that shale gas is for real. And
it's amusing to watch as various pundits go through the same mental process. Don Coxe on his call last week talked about how Exxon has booked its US shale gas reserves. That was enough for Coxe. If a biggie like Exxon, is willing to count shale gas as reserves, it must be true.

To repeat something I posted on SI: On the last IOC conference call, the CEO, Phil Mulacek, discussed the issue of potential competition from shale gas. He said that the Asian LNG buyers he is negotiating with saw the shale gas glut as a temporary issue (as in the next 5 years). Also, they felt that 'supply creates its own demand). In other words, if NG is so cheap, over the long term, the demand will explode. Right now coal is the cheapest BTU, but what if cleaner NG will now be the cheapest BTU?

So who benefits from cheap NG? Oil sands and nitrogen fertilizer producers are the obvious answers, but there have got to be all kinds of other industries.

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