Jimlur
In all reality IDCC states they have 55% of the market licensed for 3G. IDCC states they will have revenues of over $300 million from 55% licensees. Now with 3G smart phones now moving up in sales, the revenues should continue to grow. If IDCC licenses the remaining 45% then revenues should be over $600 million. This will not be including the machine to machine revenues or any other industy licensed revenues.
Just using the $600 million and take expenses of around $120 million and taxes of around $170 leaving a net profit of around $310 million or close to $8.00 a share. If the street should give IDCC a 20 P/E based on getting even higher rates for LTE and 4G then the stock price should be close to $160.00 a share.
If and if is a big word but if the machine to machine is going to be a big money maker and if the laptops netbooks, notebooks, and other uses should be a big money maker, then IDCC is just on the tip of the iceberg of reaching its real value. Then the $600 million may be a dissapointment as revenues should maybe be closer to the billion or more. I think the Nokia resoloution will be a higher rate than what the analyst seemed to think it will be. It has to be pretty substantial to spend the money they have spend and will spend. If it was over a few million it would have been signed a long time ago for sure.
You know when things are going bad with the stock its awfull easy to forget what a bright future the company has and how great they are financially. I honestly have a hard time believing that investors, and I did say investors can ignore facts and numbers displayed by analyst and Forbes and Ford and the company themselves how good things are. Yet these investors will believe some chatboard posters and a couple of analyst that are a long long way from the other analyst target. Even the low target is over 60% from the present price.
You and I know this stock is not trading on fundamentals, it is manipulation from someone who is pretty good at what they do, and nothing more. Hopefully IDCC catches them with their drawers down and hits us with news that blows the shorts and put buyers all to pieces.
IDCC could easily help the stock with any kind of a dividend, but for some reason they have yet to declare a dividend. I would love to know what is keeping them from doing it when a dividend opens the door for so many new investors. It makes no sense to me but I am not running the company, just wishing I did or most any other positive poster on the board made the decision about a dividend. On the surface the not paying a dividend is almost a blantant disregard for shareholder value and appreciation of the stock.This company is in great financial shape and will be for many years to come.
The J.P Morgan analyst that valued the Nortel portfolio at 2 billion and Merritt stating that IDCC my interpretation had a stronger portfolio in the LTE and 4G arena. If this is true then give it a value of 3 billion and lower shares outstanding via repurchase to 40 million and bingo $120.00 a share.
I don't think I can recall ever seeing so much value trading for so cheap. Something just don't make sense unless it is some effort to steal the company and scare enough small investors, but since a potential buyer is limited to the amount of shares they can own, this makes it hard to understand. However rules are made to be circumvented apparently so maybe they have several corporations and or companies in different countries and each one can accumulate X amount of shares, since basically there is no risk in the stock at this price they have nothing to lose if they fail to aquire IDCC they would have a profit that would choke a billy goat.
The thing that makes me want to puke is to see long time loyal IDCC owners throw in the towel when now is the time to be buying. Is there a human being alive that thinks IDCC would be sold below $20.00 a share? I think that if you don't believe the company would ever be bought for below $20.00 then how can you really not make money buying at these prices long term?
All we need is unexpected positive news, ala settlement, new license from Ericsson, or Motorola, or a major Chinese company. Of course some clarity on what we do have licsensed wouldn't hurt my feelings either. Buyback, dividend, abolish RSU'S, replace Harry, are just a few things that would propel the stock.
Bottom line is set a sale price of $125.00 and expect to get it, if IDCC performs as I expect and they license all.
JMO
Mickey
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