Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

John, I have the market more like the 1966/82 period (see #reply-13483082 ).

2. I have a more bouncy run, more like the February run this year and the January run last year, nothing stellar nor exceeding 20% on the Naz rom next week low. Of course, if we get capitulation this week, that may change the story, but I do not expect that, the volume has not been increasing on the decline, a feature most often present prior to a capitulation move.

3. I think that Mish is calculating Max pains for next week, and there he may be right we will not go much above 25/26 by the end of the week (ending not far from where we are now), but the August picture is quite different (at this time, there are a lot of puts under $25, much more than calls above $25, so he'kll have to adjust his max pain for early August upward. By the tme August 19th is around, ax pain may very well be back on its way down.

4. I only "do the Comp", the NDX and Dow are too heavily manipulated so the statistical models don't work that well.

Yield, MRK and WDFC have yields in excess of 3% in the core. As for LLL, I agree the balance sheet is a little ugly and not easily comprehended, it mostly due to recent acquisitions, bringing on the book another $500 MM in goodwill but because of the heavy short it is quite playable and it is in a sector that is now "in favor", and Wall Street (part of it) is in love with that stock, LLL is probably the fastest growing company n the defense sector and will probably be trading at a premium for some time, until they get into a financial accident. I doubt that will happen soon, since they just bought back a very large $225 MM debenture that was carrying 10% plus interest (saving about $.10 per share, since total debt has not decreased, but was replaced with lowr interest rate debt). Like TYCO, LLL probably does not belong to a core folio because of its poor blance sheet. ATK 's balance sheet is just a little cleaner, but not much.

Zeev