Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[John126]

Zeev- new poster and thanks for the free flowing donation of your opinions.

Many questions and only comment on those you think are worthwhile.

1. To me this 'feels' like 87'. Market declines while the Fed insists things are fine. It may not be over until the national news is running lead headline stories on 'can you believe GE,AOL,-- are at $XX per share today'. Also lack of announced buybacks in the decline (AAPL finds long periods of support at 16.5/17-helps to have cash).

Trying to figure on what turns us into buyers now if there is going to be big selling later. You seem pretty commited to no crash now.

Have the turnips backtested to the 6/87 to 12/87 period?

2. Your bull horns are off looking for a low early this week. Is the form of this decline a reaction low that is not retested and we go to 1400-1500 or is this a kick around in 1300-1350 for a week then lets see what happens?

3. Do any of your scenarios fit into this scenario:
drop now-weak rally to current levels-drop to 1300 and sit out the summer. Lower lows with the war scenario.

This may fit with Mish who thinks the rally is over already in the QQQs (correct me if I am wrong Mish)

4. What ever your current 'likly' model for the Comp- what would you guess as the targets in the S&P and DOW? I think this is important because this is what 'the masses' and mutual funds guage and important to overall sentiment. Could this be a period that is OK for the Comp and a real screaming mess for the other averages?

The only hope I see is that earnings are good but will that be enough to cause inflows.

Historically it has always been fruitful a few months later (at the most) accumulating on periods with the VIX over 40 but this is strong stomach stuff.

Another side note- 'average' people I talk to think all this talk about CEOs being truthful is a negative for the market. They want the scam. They want the MoMo to pump the stocks. This 'Reg control lovefest' sets up a market where exhuberance is not allowed let alone the irrational kind. Can't make $$ there.

Alot of people are sayin dividend plays will be important in the slow grind market but none in your core- any thoughts?

Playing small for a bounce but I hate this market.

John126

PS- There was a very negative article on LLL on realmoney.com based on balance sheet issues. If any one is interested I will post a summary. (pay site so cannot link or paste)