Replies to post #3029 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[John126]

Zeev thanks for your thoughts. You wrote-

<I only "do the Comp", the NDX and Dow are too heavily manipulated so the statistical models don't work that well.>


Aside from models I think this implies weak rallies for all-No.

The kind of -hey we are going up-no we are going down- then resolved down.

John126

[Boad]

4. I only "do the Comp", the NDX and Dow are too heavily manipulated so the statistical models don't work that well.

Zeev, how manipulated -- the regular "weeding" of the indexes or something else? Which statistical models are you referring to?

Thx.

[ajtj99]

Zeev, iqauto has August Max Pain at 25 right now. The open interest is extremely low, so it can get moved around a bit between now and then.

Normally what we've seen is the pain number moving down as we approach expiration. That's in a downtrending market, of course.

I would not be surprised to see August Max Pain at QQQ 23 or 24 by mid-August.

I think you'll get your rally, but from 1200 COMP, and it could be about 6-weeks long, 200-250 points, ending in early to mid September.

I think we get COMP 1000 by mid-Dec., then a rally into mid-January to 1250, then drop to 1000 or spike low to 800 by end of April / early May.

[Zeev Hed]

A little while ago (May, 11th -2002), in response to Mish's question on the Dow possible low (I have a target low for the year of 7500 to 8000), I gave a list (#reply-17455722) of the max expected hits for each Dow stock, I probably should have listed the then current prices, so I am reproducing this list with the then current prices, (the Dow was just around 10,000 then May 11th) as well as the target max hits (in parenthesis), I have now added the low (in square brackets) since then and the current price:

AA (- 11) $34.99, [$29.61], $30.12;
AXP (- 19) $41.50, [$33.70], $34.98;
T (- 4) $13.71, [$9.09], $10.44; Hit;
BA (-12) $43.63, [$39.13], $40.15;
CAT (- 7) $52.81, [$43.67], $45.50 Hit;
C (-12) $43.35 [$35.10], $36.35;
KO (-12) $56.36, [$50.70], $51.05;
DIS (- 4) $23.15 [$17.60], $1845; Hit;
DD (-6) $45.40, [$41.75], $43.28;
EK (-10) $34.30, [$26.64], $28.90;
XOM (-5) $38.96, [$36.15] $36.53;
GE (-7) $30.65, [$26.40], $28.60;
GM (-15) $66.20, [$44.76], $46.60;Hit
HPQ (-8) $19.26,[$14.00], $15.27;
HON (-10) $37.85, [$32.00], $32.57;
HD (-7) $45.50, [$28.40], $29.09; Hit;
IBM (-25) $79.68, [$67.16], $69.21;
IP (-8) $42.81, [40.48], $40.95;
INTC (-5) $27.01, [$16.26], 17.99; Hit;
JNJ (-6) $61.85, [$49.10], $50.50,;Hit;
MCD (-4) $29.40, [$26.85], $27.12;
MRK (-12) $55.81, [$42.10], $45.55; Hit
MSFT(-10) $50.05, [$49.17], $51.48;
MMM (-16) $126.90, [$119.38], $120.10;
JPM (-10) $35.00, [$29.25], $30.21;
MO (-3) $54.90, [$40.35], $42.92: Hit;
PG (-10) $92.40, [$82.10] $83.63; Hit
SBC (-6) $30.45, [$27.85], $39.64;
UTX (-10) $68.75, [$62.23], $63.31;
WMT (-10) $53.66, [$52.00], $52.85.

Until last week, eight of these have hit, T, CAT, DIS, GM, HD, INTC, JNJ and MO, and this week two more hit, MRK and PG, bringing the total to 10 out of $30. And we are only at mid year and only eight weeks from the start.

Zeev