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Re: iwfal post# 65092

Tuesday, 08/05/2008 11:21:06 PM

Tuesday, August 05, 2008 11:21:06 PM

Post# of 257628
<<WAG 4Q08 at >18M.>>

How do you get from $1.4 mm in 2Q to these numbers for 4Q08 and 1Q 09 etc? Not saying you're wrong, but curious what multiples of sales to date you're throwing in with what rationales, if that's part of your method. Are you doing anything with the data on P&T decisions so far, for example, in terms of estimating ultimate share?

My hunch is that it's still too soon to extrapolate from results so far. (Yet if it's not too soon, Dew's pessimisim seems to be what one would extrapolate.) Are the few early P&Ts representative of the rest but just faster? Is potential use highly concentrated within the 1200(?) hosiptals Carter mentioned and if so how are we doing on the big ones? How will we really do with the majority of formularies where we share position with bovine? For the many P&Ts that have delayed considering us, does that mean King outguns us or we just need patience? Since we did make it on some formularies in Q1, why not more sales to them in Q2? etc.

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