I think your 25% to a partner is too low, depending on what that partner delivers ( advertising, distribution, sales force, manufacturing, etc) it could be anywhere from 40-60% to the partner. Still a lot of revenue for the company without having to bring on additional employees and overhead.
There will also be corporate taxes to be paid on their share of the revenue, not for the first couple of years due to capital losses over the last decade, but it should be accounted for in future years.
Also, the mAb’s are listed at $27k a year not the $48k you stated. Maybe with the MRI’s and the trips to the facilities that administer the infusions that could add up to $48k, but that is not the price of the drug.
Europe is not going to accept a price even 75% of that $27k mark. Europe price will be somewhere between $6-10k a year, the US higher at about $12k a year per patient.
AVXL will be wildly successful if/when approved by EMA & FDA, but let’s be more realistic about revenues and SP. $700B MC with an $8200 share price is not just “being too optimistic “ but downright out of touch with reality.
We should be in the 20-50B range in MC a few years after approval from both agencies, IMO.
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