That seems like a high risk wager, and objectively it appears more likely the market sells off around the April 2 date. From what I've read (link below), many traders are still under the impression Trump is bluffing and will back off, and that has kept the pre-April 2 market from dropping more. If so, the market could be in for a rude awakening. On the other hand, Trump was very sensitive to the stock market's direction in his 1st term, so he might still do something at the last minute to cushion the blow and we get a relief rally. The PPT could also jump in to protect the markets. But that said, a nasty drop seems very possible.
April 2 - >>> 'Could be a shocker': Markets might not yet be grasping what Trump may do April 2 on reciprocal tariffs <<<
Fwiw, back in my bio days, we called this type of situation a 'binary event', and I almost always went to cash prior to those events. I only stayed long through an 'event' once (small position), and picked the wrong outcome. The binary nature of these events and the unpredictability of the outcome makes them extremely risky.
Listening to Ray Dalio, he said he always tries to avoid unhedged binary type wagers, since the risks are too high. The public perception is that hedge fund guys are gunslingers taking enormous risks, but Dalio said it's the opposite. Rather than having big naked bets, he did 'arbitrage' and used offsetting risks to get the net risk level as close to zero as possible. In some ways your metals and energy positions could constitute a hedge against the big SVIX position, but.. be careful my friend :o)
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