Bigworld, Yes, things are a mess, and Trump's ineptitude with these tariffs could be the pin that pops the balloon.
Reducing the deficit and ending the Ukraine war are definitely needed. Ideally the deficit reduction should be done gradually and systematically, but unfortunately politics won't allow that, so they are forced to do everything in the first 100 days. That's extremely disruptive, and along with the tarrifs, we get pushed into recession / stagflation. I'm thinking at minimum the stock market has a 2022 type decline (~ 9 mos), depending on how long it takes to get into and out of recession. Just a guess though.
One good thing with Trump is that he doesn't have much appetite for criticism, so when the financial markets tank and his approval ratings sink, he should respond and try to reverse the damage. That's how he was in his first term --> hyper-attuned to the level of the stock market. But this time? He doesn't have to run for office again, so doesn't care as much about public opinion. But he still hates to look bad, so hopefully that is enough for him to back off when 'damage control' is clearly needed. Rickards says the Fed's own limit is a market drop of 15%, and then they move to prop things up.
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