gfp: If you look at market history as I do the market has not even begun to appreciate downside risk in tis still vey overvalued market. As I said a few days ago...stock to 100% cash and short term Treasuries. Don't allocate a dime to the stock market until Buffett sends out the news that he's a buyer. It will be easier on your psyche, and in the end you'll feel like an investing genius.
Markets rarely go from their penultimate high to their generational low in one fell swoop. I suspect that this market will be a slow churn downward with the market fluctuations from overbought to oversold....a stair step downward. Lower highs followed by lower lows. There is no permanent conviction. Over the last few weeks we went from fear induced selling, to daily fluctuations, to the present time where the buyers are gaining traction. As the FOMO muppets jump back on the train the smart money will be happy to unload shares to them. There has to be a bag holder. The retail investor is always the guy.
So with this type of environment I will continue my approach of playing the volatility, alternating between UVXY and SVIX. I'm now thinking that the VIX dropping to at least 16 is almost a given. And the lower it goes the more attractive it will be to shed SVIX and start scaling in on UVXY. If the market doesn't shed 20% by the end of summer this fall will be a prime opportunity for a really gnarly sell off.
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