Bigworld, With Trump's big push for Bitcoin and crypto, the logical move for us investors might be to pile into the Bitcoin ETFs. As much as I dislike Bitcoin, it does have some undeniable tailwinds. Having all the new Bitcoin ETFs available suddenly made it easy for investors to pile in, and the price zoomed, and this happened even before Trump's big 'conversion' to Bitcoin.
I remember when the gold ETFs were introduced (2004-05), and the gold price immediately skyrocketed as the public piled in. Gold quadrupled over the next several years, and the availability of the ETF (GLD) was largely responsible. A similar pattern occurred with Bitcoin after the ETFs came out. IBIT started trading early last year, and after an initial slump it proceeded to almost double. It then consolidated sideways until Trump became pro-crypto last summer, and then it nearly doubled again. The current chart looks poised to go higher, so this might be a logical place for a speculative position.
The bigger aspect with Bitcoin / crypto is that after anti-CBDC opposition appeared in Congress, the Fedsters backed off on their CBDC push. Rickards said the eventual idea is to re-brand CBDC as a Stablecoin, ie a crypto that doesn't swing wildly in value from day to day. First though would be to get the crypto 'plumbing' in place, and increase public acceptance of crypto, etc, to grease the wheels for the eventually transition to Stablecoin (CBDC). Whether Trump is aware that he's being used by the Fedsters, who knows, but he is the perfect vehicle to get crypto fully entrenched into US financial transactions.
Trump was anti-crypto for years, but apparently had a 'Damascus Road conversion' last summer, probably from listening to Musk and other pro crypto advisors, and next came his 'Bitcoin Strategic Reserve' idea, etc. Anyway, Bitcoin --> crypto --> Stablecoin ---> CBDC looks like the plan to get CBDC adopted on the sly, they just won't call it CBDC. So even if Bitcoin appears to be a worthless POS, the smart move for investors might be to own some of the ETF, at least in the near / mid term.
Fwiw, I bought a little IBIT when it first came came out, but it looked weak so I quickly bailed out, but then it began it's big run-up. I figure that initial drop was from long time Bitcoin owners finally having a liquid way to cash out or hedge, but the selloff was brief, and then the Bitcoin price took off as newbies piled in using the new ETF. Personally I really dislike Bitcoin / cryptos since they are purely speculative vehicles, have no underlying value, and are way too volatile to be used as 'money'. But there's a lot more to the picture if they are to be the Trojan horse that gets the Fed's CBDC adopted.
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