Thursday, January 02, 2025 9:45:18 AM
The current status:
*The 4x200 PIC is the company's only hope for near term significant revenues because that is a potentially large market and the company has made some progress. Shareholder confusion comes from the fact that they had a graph saying that is "in qualifications" at the 2024 ASM, but when reviewing the graph the CEO pointed out that they had completed SINGLE LANE, and of the 4 lane only said "it's coming". Obviously it was not in qualifications based on what he said as well as common sense: The company would definitely shout out loud to the industry the moment they have a working 4x200 PIC from which transceiver companies can work with, as shown by how strongly they advertised their single lane success.
*No PIC - NO Transceiver company deal. There is no reason for a transceiver company to put a lot of effort into working with Lightwave until Lightwave develops a working PIC. That is Pre-Transceiver work done by Lightwave in the own lab and with their one 200mm foundry - AMF.
*The narrative of "deep negotiations" with transceiver companies has never been supported by a single company statement in Prs, or filings. All we are really being told is they are having "discussions" and are "engaged". Most likely they have shown some preliminary interest in the status of the 4x200 PIC and said "when you get a working PIC give us a call."
*The company has never verified that any transceiver company is designing any product or prototype using the company's technology. When Dr Lebby was asked directly, he didn't not answer affirmatively.
*The company just lost their CEO under suspicious circumstances. The PR announcing it discussed new verticals and plans to "evolve" and while it mentioned materials and polymer modulators there was no mention of the development of a 4x200 PIC.
Disturbing historical facts:
*The company's 10k's said for 10 years in a row they expected to commercialize product by year end
*Dr Lebby gushed about how easy it would be to be quickly incorporated into foundry PDKs and partner for "mass commercialization" - even showing a timeline that ended with "commercialization Polymer Plus" pointing to mid-2021 in the 2021 ASM
*The top 2 each took $2.6m in cash bonuses against company policy of giving out bonuses pre-revenue.
*Every single director sold their shares at year end 2021 - beginning 2022 - which was just the time investors were expected major deals and partnership announcements because of the 2021 ASM
*The company said they were on-track for all of their goals in the Dec 22 shareholder letter
*The company used their first deal as the excuse to not review annual goals at the 2023 ASM
*The company projected 7900 units in transceivers in 2024 during the 2023 ASM - when they had not yet even gotten full wafer poling to work (not for another 6 months).
*The company led shareholders to believe a commercial deal for scalable polymer modulators could happen at any time in spring-summer 2023, when they were 9-6 months away from even having a full wafer of modulators from a foundry
*The Dec 23 shareholder letter came early when the stock was tanking badly -- and it greatly mislead investors into expecting major deals in a short amount of time.
*When the deals from the above shareholder letter didn't happen the company first explained that it was because they were needing to show more reliability and scalability. Later the narrative changed to having switched to more lucrative Tier1s after the 200mm demo - dropping the reliability/scalability reason first given.
*The company has yet to name Polaritan as a partner they have made a deal with.
*The company has made very little money on their first "deal" because it is not a scalable product.
*Marcelli pushed a narrative of multiple major deals soon after shareholders had lost a lot of faith from the 2024 ASM and the price had dropped, via a "high level executive" phone call
*The company has only gotten 200mm full wafers of poled modulators from one company - AFM - as is clearly stated in PRs and filings. Any other wafers they are getting from other companies are not 200mm.
Rebuttals to Proto's nonsense:
Funny how Proto - the daily cut and paste man - now has adopted my use of the word "DESTROY". Just makes me chuckle. All you really need to know is he has been claiming "deal any day" ever since arriving here on this board in 2012. The chart tells the story though. It's too bad many here bought into his narratives.
Here are 3 examples that I believe really destroy the claims of Proto. His 'responses' typically falsely accuse me in order to try to discredit me - and ignore almost all of the actual substance of my arguments.
Destruction of his claim of a consistent timeline by Dr Lebby going back to 2019:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175504291&txt2find=destroyed
Destruction of his TIMELINE-->Events used to support the questionable current narrative re Dr Lebby's resignation: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175546032
Destruction of the 'evidence' for the narrative from MrLWLG101 which many support:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175540191
More DD about important issues:
Here are the unmistakable facts staring everyone in the face here, that help paint the real picture:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175564394
Here's Mr Marcelli's questionable phone call in July which likely kept some or many investors from selling:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175527158
Here's imo the most reasonable explanation for Dr Lebby's sudden and unexpected departure:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175522353
Here's my sticky post that explain where each branch of their technology REALLY stands, to clear up the confusion
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175516653
Here's my post of pretty accurate predictions made in February of 2024 for the year:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175533967
Here's the shocking summary of red flags events OVER JUST THE LAST 12 MONTHS revealing this company's true colors:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174952792&txt2find=analyst
Here's the original RED FLAGS sticky post that may have saved investors millions of dollars, as it revealed numerous terrible issues:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172611173
Good Luck trying to find your way here. Hopefully you will find the above to be helpful.
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