AVXL must tread carefully when presenting post-hoc analyses to avoid overextending the narrative. If the COL24A1 subgroup (70% of the population) shows a 2x improvement over ITT, the implication is that the remaining 30% with the mutation might be performing worse than placebo (+2.6 points). This raises a serious question: Could Blarcamesine potentially harm certain patients? Such a concern might prompt the EMA to require a confirmatory trial.
With the OLE and genetic analysis results seemingly leaked, CM is navigating a narrow window. A press release addressing these findings feels urgent, ideally by tomorrow or early Wednesday morning, ahead of his fireside chat at noon. The Q4 CC and 10-k have to come out next week to leave a window for insiders to purchase stocks before the end of the quarter black-out window starts again.
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