I still believe that NWBO will surprise a lot of people with UK approval, so personally I've taken advantage of the share price weakness to greatly increase my position.
As for AVXL, I'd be thrilled with $20 before its initial approval, that would represent roughly a $2 billion market cap. Right now, with approval coming potentially any day NWBO has a market cap under $370 million.
I'm of the belief that either company on approval ought to have a market cap of a few billion. Beyond that the market cap should build based on sales and anticipated future growth. Both companies are in markets that certainly have blockbuster potential many times over if their technologies become part of the SOC for treatment. In spite of the fact that AVXL's potential is huge, I believe that NWBO may be even larger if its vaccine is determined effective in many solid cancers. I believe this possible as anecdotal evidence has indicated it's working in compassionate use in the UK. Remember, it's vaccine is made from the tumor so its effectiveness shouldn't be limited to GBM even if that's what the Phase 3 trial targeted.
Of all the diseases AVXL is targeting, Alzheimer's is clearly the one getting the attention, and approval in it should achieve major headlines. Just as I believe that NWBO's DCVax-L will gain major off label use in other cancers on approval in brain cancer, I believe the same will be true for AVXL on approval in Alzheimer's in other areas like RETT's and Parkinson that it's targeting.
In many ways, AVXL has a tougher task. In cancer patients either live longer, or are cured, or they aren't. In the diseases AVXL is tackling a great deal of hope comes with treatment and people observing patients may think they're seeing improvements because they're hoping it's happening. I believe the RETT's trial was flawed by placebo observers being fooled by hope. On the other hand, reducing the rate of brain shrinking is measurable, ultimately that's an observation that cannot be denied.
I don't know that it's possible to create a trial that ignores observing the patient and only looks at brain shrinkage. I do think that the regulators will be hard pressed to ignore slowing brain shrinkage as being a benefit. It's hard to say how long it will take for the regulators to agree with the benefit, but in time I believe we'll see approvals rather universally.
Gary
Bullish
AI
