You understand I'm not saying Anavex initially lied intentionally, which would have been illegal, unethical, and stupid. If it did happen, I believe it was primarily the result of bad fortune. Anavex got the P2b/3 results a day before CTAD 2022, due to its CRO's problems. Additionally, IIRC, Anavex has said it hadn't run its own statistics for the P2b/3 at that point; the statistical analysis was initially handled by the CRO. I believe Anavex felt a great deal of pressure to present the trial results in its scheduled time slot at CTAD. MacFarlane has said he didn't get his slides until an hour before he presented them. The Anavex office (virtual or not) must have been very chaotic in the day leading up to the presentation.
December 1, the day of the all-endpoints-met PR and CTAD presentation, was a Thursday. Friday the share price shoots way up on the news on huge volume, and then starts sliding back down. (I personally bought a lot of shares in the pre-market and remain well underwater.) I don't know when they figure out there's a problem, but Missling's performance on the December 5 conference call was somewhere on the spectrum between unimpressive and abysmal. I think he didn't get much sleep that weekend.
Please agree, even hypothetically, there's a chance that my facts above are generally right and that Anavex discovered at some point after December 1 that they hadn't actually met all endpoints. What do you think Anavex should have done about the unintentional misinformation (ADL endpoint met) at that point? I believe that had it announced the error, it would have finished the company in a sea of lawsuits. Let's say for the hypothetical that Odds Ratio was the second-listed statistical test in the hierarchy, and accept my understanding that meeting a not-first-listed test is not really meeting an endpoint.
