22 years of annual revenues is not "an isolated data point in a vacuum."
"Trends are not found looking in the rear view mirror?" Huh? How can a tred be anything BUT in the rear view mirror? How can a trend be somethign that hasn't happened yet?
"Companies which comprise the market?" What is that supposed to mean? The market is comprised of companies but how does a company comprise the market?
Kelly Whelan does not know that the CMS will accept a Pilot Study as proof that RecoveryRx reduces opioid use. For one thing, she doesn't know the results yet -- in a small pilot study, anomalies occur, and the endpoint of opiod reduction might not even be met. (Remember Koneru's back pain study that failed?) She also doesn't know for certain that Ilfeld will finish and/or publish a paper.
Regardless -- the CMS might accept a Pilot Study and they might not. Nobody knows until they submit the Pilot Study and wait for the CMS decision.
And even then, if the CMS reimburses for RecoveryRx under the NOPAIN Act, there is no guarantee that doctors will prescribe enough RecoveryRx to make much of a difference.
The NOPAIN Act is not a trend -- it's a possible future catalyst, like the NHS and FDA full-body OTC clearance and Synergy were possible future catalysts. No microeconomics professor is going to give any credence to possible future catalysts.
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