HL,
I'm really not a trader, I buy and hold. I'd speculate that we could run up prior to SNO, but I'll not trade on it, and it's purely up to each investor whether they wish to sell if we run up to it, or not.
I believe that if we run up by SNO, if we get the Journal by then, we'll also get the Annual Meeting announcement and proxy for the meeting. Somewhere in that time period we should also get the third quarter filing. I still believe the acceptance of either the production facility or the application by the U.K. could come any day. In short, there are a lot of possibilities that say if we do have a run up to SNO the share price could continue to run up as other news comes in. I believe anyone trading in anticipation the price will come down after SNO is risking being out during a sustained gain.
Certainly stocks do retrench after major gains before making further gains, people who trade routinely make big gains if they get it right. On the other hand no one really knows how big the major gain will be, if you sell at $5 and it retrenches to $3 or $4 you can profit nicely, but if it keeps gaining to $10, then it might retrench to $6 to $8 and if you buy back in when it finally retrenches, you'd have substantially fewer shares than what you sold at $5.
I would only look to sell if I believe the shares are not selling on the news, but rather on emotion after major media coverage. If before approval or partnership we moved into the $20's I would start to set trailing stop losses. As the stock moved up so would my stop losses. Otherwise my intention is for my kids to inherit my stock when I'm no longer here. If tax laws are unchanged they'll get a new basis for their holdings at least for the shares in my primary account. I'd be inclined to trade on the shares in the Roth IRA, it's a much smaller part of my portfolio, but without the tax burden it's a much better place to trade out of, and it has some of my cheapest shares.
I certainly don't know how high the share price could go in the next decade or two, which is about as long as I can possibly hope to be around for. If GBM and only GBM is what's benefitted perhaps we're limited to about the $20's. However, if most solid cancers benefit from both DCVax's, how high is up, certainly well into triple digits, but perhaps more than that. Of course this presumes NWBO remaining independent. If it's bought out, I'll probably take shares in the buyer if that's an untaxed option. The dividends paid by most BP's wouldn't be a bad thing to have around.
Gary
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