NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[ATLnsider]

FeMike, I know that some NWBO investors are tired, and they are anxious and ready to sell their NWBO shares for $3 to $5 per share. There is nothing wrong with that, and I don’t believe anyone here will try to stop them from selling their shares at $3 to $5. Every investor should do what is best for them, based on their personal needs, expectations, patience level, etc.

Markets are forward-looking and will assign value based on estimated future results. DCVax-L will become a part of the new standard of care (SOC) for treating ndGBM and rGBM. Initially in the UK, US, Canada, Germany and the rest of the EU. Then, in the rest of the world (ROW).

Once DCVax-L becomes a part of SOC, it will not compete with any other alternative treatments for GBM. The current SOC for GBM (maximal resection + radiation + chemotherapy) does not compete for patients. SOC basically captured almost 100% of the market, solely based on it being SOC. As long as the tumor can be safely resected (is operable), and a personalized DCVax-L vaccine can be made for the GBM patient, they will be treated with DCVax-L. I would estimate a minimum of 90% market share.

I prefer to stick with the guidance we were given directly by Dr. Bosch and Dr. Murthy. The Sawston facility will be able to scale to treat 1,000 GBM patients per month in the UK and throughout Europe. That would equate to 12,000 patients per year in the UK and Europe.

Then, I would estimate a minimum of another 13,000 GBM patients per year in the US and Canada. That would equate to a total of 25,000 GBM patients per year.

My valuation calculation for just the ndGBM and rGBM indications for NWBO would start with the following formula:

25,000 Annual GBM patients X $200,000 per DCVax-L treatment = $5 billion per year

Then, $5 billion per year X 15 times multiple = $75 billion Market Value

Then, $75 billion Market Value / 1.5 billion outstanding shares = $50 per share (estimated value)

Also, keep in mind several important factors:

(1) This valuation is primarily only for ndGBM and it does not fully value the rGBM indication

(2) This valuation does not assign any value for DCVax-L approvals in the ROW.

(3) This valuation does not assign any value for DCVax-L being approved for treating any other solid tumor cancers.

(4) This valuation does not assign any value for DCVax Direct being approved to treat all or most inoperable solid tumor cancers.

I WILL NOT BE SELLING MY SHARES FOR $3 to $5