NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[MI Dendream]

SOS was extremely conservative all around in this rendition IMHO. For example, he uses 20 in 100 as the estimated survivor rate at 5 years on DCVax. Let’s look at this a little deeper.

Over 28% of all patients survived at 3 years which was up about 4 percent from an analysis done a year and a half earlier. Using the data provided on predictive survival in both the article and SNO presentation, one can extrapolate the 5 year number of the combined group to be about 19% with the likely continuation of the phenomenon that later enrolled patients will pull this number up, I believe to about 22%. These are combined group numbers however. Using reasonable estimations for placebo, these produce about 35+ and 25+ In 100 treated patients survive at 3 and 5 years respectively. That creates a delta vs placebo which is about 5x natural history at 5 years which included IDH patients.

What are we invested in an ancient pharma with little pipeline and future headwinds or should our multiple valuation look more like a burgeoning biotech with a deep pipeline and novel approaches to disease with high unmet medical need, very, very high unmet need.

Ex is leaving because he sees the writing all over the walls throughout every room of the house