NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[ou71764]

Ou...I know you've been in this one for a long time but I want to understand your prediction of the sp. You are long but you think a year from now the sp will be at .35 which essentially means a failed trial?

Hi HM4L,

I don't think the trial failed in the sense that the vaccine has no future.

I believe the vaccine has worked for a significant subset of people in the trial. What I fear is that NWBO didn't design the trial in such a way that it will pass regulatory approval without gathering more data...which could require a new trial that is designed to clearly prove statistical significance for a subset.

Why am I long? I could be wrong about them needing a new trial. And using probability, if something might be worth 10 or 20 times its current price, even if it's not the most likely outcome, to me it's worth being long. I even added a small number of shares at .80 in early December.

But I think the most likely outcome is that the TLD won't be sufficient for approval. That the company is waiting for a journal publication before relasing TLD is a huge red flag. I've never heard of such a thing. IMO if they had data sufficient for approval, it would have been relased a long time ago.

I think the journal article is to explain that the vaccine did help a significant group of people in the trial (as I think it did), but that the trial wasn't designed to capture that data in such a way that it can be submitted for approval.

I don't think NWBO wants to give up on getting approval. But I think they might already know that they are going to need to collect more data in a new trial - and they are waiting for the journal publication as it might provide a scientific basis to show to investors, as the company pursues a fundraising for a new trial.

My .35 stock price prediction is a reflection of what I think will happen if they need to raise money for a new trial. But I really want the other predictions of a much higher stock price to be on target!