Saturday, November 09, 2019 8:34:22 PM
It's my belief that in interim checks the clinicians aren't overly concerned about LTFU, but at the end of the trial, they will work much harder to eliminate all of them. Perhaps a couple won't be located, but I believe very few will be found in the final data.
At this point in the trial, where all who are alive have been for 48 months or more, I would suspect that most are feeling pretty healthy. That's not to say none are in failing health, but I believe the numbers are small. If 80+ were alive a year ago, I doubt if more than 10% passed on in the last year. If I'm right about that, the number alive today should be in the 70's.
I believe that by, or before SNO we'll have some news, it may not be an unblinded trial and top line data, but I see no reason they can't verify the status of all still thought to be alive in the trial. Even if we have a couple LTFU's, I believe we'll hear a very impressive number.
Hopefully whenever they do discuss status with investors they will establish goals for when the events needed to conclude the trial will occur, as well as an update to the trial for DCVax-Direct. Who knows, they might have a surprise for us and actually provide top line data.
Gary
At this point in the trial, where all who are alive have been for 48 months or more, I would suspect that most are feeling pretty healthy. That's not to say none are in failing health, but I believe the numbers are small. If 80+ were alive a year ago, I doubt if more than 10% passed on in the last year. If I'm right about that, the number alive today should be in the 70's.
I believe that by, or before SNO we'll have some news, it may not be an unblinded trial and top line data, but I see no reason they can't verify the status of all still thought to be alive in the trial. Even if we have a couple LTFU's, I believe we'll hear a very impressive number.
Hopefully whenever they do discuss status with investors they will establish goals for when the events needed to conclude the trial will occur, as well as an update to the trial for DCVax-Direct. Who knows, they might have a surprise for us and actually provide top line data.
Gary
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