Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[TonyMcFadden]

Since we're tossing around numbers that have no merit (there is no history of acceptance of this kind of paradigm shift)


1. Near term (2003/2004)

In the very near term Wave's "significant" income will come from Premium Services as the number of TPM's is relatively low. Maybe 20 million units in 2004 (Licenses $10 million, Premium Services at 10% adoption rate $40 - 60 million)

I prefer to look at the low end licensing number, as it may be more likely with volume orders. Also, volume licenses for Premium services will be at a discount to the retail price. In addition, initial adoption rate of premium services will be low)


2. Medium term (2005)

I estimate 40-50 million units during this time span. So licensing revenue will be around $20-$25 million and Premium Services should, still assuming 25% adoption, generate about $200 - $250 million

Same volume arguments as near term.

I can't see the point in looking beyond 2005 at this point. Information gleaned from the coming 6 quarters will make forecasts that much easier to make.

That said, even with conservative numbers, Wave has the potential to rake in barrow loads of cash....

And none of this includes TAN based revenues, XPresso revenues, FINREAD activities or Government contracts...