Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[awk]

barge: The road to prosperity...


1. Near term (2003/2004)

In the very near term Wave's "significant" income will come from Premium Services as the number of TPM's is relatively low. Maybe 20 million units in 2004 (Licenses $20 million, Premium Services at 25% adoption rate $150 - 200 million)


2. Medium term (2005)

I estimate 40-50 million units during this time span. So licensing revenue will be around $40-$50 million and Premium Services should, still assuming a 25% adoption rate, generate about $400 - $500 million


3. Long term

Assuming that other players will enter the field with premium services there really is one question that needs to be addressed:

a) How do these new players interface into the infrastructure that will be in place then? Steven Sprague anticipates programmable platforms for secure application execution by approx. 2006 If that were the case the present revenue model will probably be outdated by then. Will we have moved to the applet business by then?