123Tom's TA study group

[F1ash]

IF folks are expecting news coming in a month, the rally could begin now.

A number of things have occurred that make this a critical time for IPIX.

1. Kevetrin has taken a step backwards to formulate an orally available delivery method. The reason they have to try oral is because the IV trial could not show efficacy at doses which were practical when administered by IV. So for all practical purposes, the bloom is somewhat off of the Kevetrin rose. That’s important imho because it’s unlikely that any earth shattering Kevetrin news will appear out of nowhere anytime soon.

2. Brilacidin OM’s results “after the interim review” were apparently not much better than Placebo. That, unfortunately, probably throws a wrench in the works of signing a deal for a partnership. It’s unfortunate because without the interim review things would probably be different. The overall results were positive but because of the interim review it basically became two separate trials. The first one (pre-interim was very successful and positive. The second trial (post-interim) would probably be considered a failure by many. So it really throws into question partnership interest in the near term imho.

3.Prurisol. In looking at recent deals for Psoriasis drugs it seemed obvious why LE was willing to make such a large bet by utilizing precious capital on Prurisol ahead of Brilacidin and Kevetrin.

Here is the deal as I see it now.

I believe it’s like poker.

Management was short stacked and decided to bet on two hands. Brilacidin OM didn’t produce the results necessary to make a partner act without awaiting further confirmation.

So it’s all down to the Prurisol hand.

I believe that companies see the blinded results from these trials in real-time. That’s super important because although they probably can’t tell if a drug works, they probably have a very good idea if it “doesn’t” work.

How? Well if they expect a 6% Placebo response and the “blinded” data only shows 6% of all patients responded then the trial is probably a failure . If 20 percent respond then odds of success are good and so on...

Going with the poker analogy, LE has never been one to slow play a hand in the past. If you read his PR’s about Prurisol though, his message has been very subdued compared to comments about previous trials. The adjectives are missing imho. No “We are excited” “We eagerly anticipate the unblinded results” etc.

Here was my thesis going in.

If Prurisol blinded results were not promising then, if I was running the company, I would drag out the unblinding as long as I possibly could and tap the daylights out of the Aspire agreement in the meantime because IPIX now owes money to pay for these trials.

It’s much more dangerous when the bills are due and you are dependent on a successful trial to generate a partnership to pay those bills. I believe that’s the situation IPIX finds itself in currently. Imho if Prurisol fails to show partnership worthy results it could be devastating for IPIX.

All that being said, it looks more and more like ARTH is a fraud and their market cap is still $50 million, so maybe IPIX is already near rock bottom Market Cap even if Prurisol fails to impress.

We shall see.