123Tom's TA study group

[sab63090]

Me too! Thanks, Kevin...

[kevindenver]

I've loved charts and T/A from day one.

Wishing wellness for you all!

[kevindenver]

I went looking for one of "Citrati's" charts and saw you guys came over here to the safe zone. I haven't adjusted to a software transition from Schwab's Streetsmart to the much more robust ThinkorSwim platform. I just can't get the screen ratios and indicators I used to use to "look right", but it doesn't really matter much as I haven't been an active trader enough to really use it in about a decade. But, I used to trade technicals successfully in my early broker career which started in 1994. Today I mostly adjust equity asset allocations and reinvest bonds as they mature. However, I do have a institutional size Anavex position I am sticking with until the drug passes or fails approval. So I do enjoy our T/A chatter and will need to learn to use this platform or just migrate to "stockcharts.com" as those just look like what my getting stubborn brain can process.

Hope the best for everyone's health!

$AVXL technicals look good after a boring signalless period.

Kevin

[sab63090]

Chuck:

Call me Steve, we are both on the same wave length and both like charts! Best

[Citrati]

Glad you have developed your own routines and workarounds.
Haha.
May you live as long as you want.
Managing stress is one of the top needs for many cancers as inflammation can be a relapse trigger, especially with lymphomas.
May we live as long as we are motivated to get up each morning with something to look forward to.

Chuck

[sab63090]

Citrati
Thanks, I'm good too! The Bendamustine (chemo) was horrible I could only handle 5 with 6 the protocol and failed my first attempt with Rituxan, went to hospital, etc....but finally with "preps" was able to finish the normal sequence and carried that on for another 18 months, too! However, I have to this day side effects such as extreme tiredness and pain over my whole body while sleeping which I need to help the cells improve over night...then in the morning I improve until around 6 to 6:30, but then need to go to bed (most of the time) around 7:30.....but, hell I'm now 81...how long can I last? ha ha

Take care and always enjoy your posts!

Steve

[Citrati]

I am posting to you here since this board is quite sparse for postings and didn't want to reply to you on the AVXL board.

I turn 77 in a few months. Was diagnosed with Grade 2 stage 4 fNHL in 2008 at age 59. There are so many NHL types and subtypes that treatment isn't all the same. I am fortunate that chemo and entirely changing my lifestyle have enabled me to remain in the "undetected category" after 2009. After the completion of chemo I was never able to work again. While it saved my life, (I was literally at deaths door) the side effects of the chemo will remain with me the rest of my life due to cell and nerve damage. Having so many sensory issues, I now have greater empathy and understanding of those who are on the autism spectrum as well as those who deal with any kind of cancer. I have a great quality of life as long as I listen and follow my adaptions.

If you ever want to chat shoot me a message on the free friday hour here at ihub with your contact info and I am happy to share/commiserate or provide support as a member of the NHL "C club". God Bless you.

[Kentucky123]

We have an interesting set up with a weekly gravestone doji. The two and four hour charts are not oversold as the other time frames. I would expect a retest of the prior low and a strong rebound. The gap at 10.50 is the first resistance then the gap at 13. JMHO

[Citrati]

Glad you have found something that is useful to you.
The internet is a great place to find, collaborate, experiment and adapt pieces that allow us be our unique selves. Incorporation is far more useful than copying because we are able to be true to who we are, which brings greater success with comfort that allows us to mute emotion the most effectively. Because the system fits us we can better replicate success, while still adapting the outside influences beyond our control.
Then the key is our risk management, which must align with who we are as well.

What I didn't show was money. I look at OBV, CMF and A/D. Why, because they are all derived differently and IMO give a fuller view of what is happening in the buy/sell arena with the volume bars.

I use faster settings along with the ema's because while all the the past and long term data has important value, I want to be as current as possible as to the action without creating whiplash. I definitely use weekly charts for how they might corroborate the daily data and where the longer term support/resistance is.

Green Trades.

[Kentucky123]

Thank you. I now have a subscription to Stock Charts and have used your charts as a template for my own use. Back when I was charting by hand I did not use log scale. I find that the down trend lines are broken faster with standard charts with back testing before a reversal. That must be due to a flattening of the MA's.

[Citrati]

🤓Todays closing Daily.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2025/2/10/qtwhoScreen_Shot_2025-02-10_at_2.13.46_PM.png
https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2025/2/10/clnhnScreen_Shot_2025-02-10_at_2.14.39_PM.png

Note what is occurring inside the market structure zone and the vertical zone. That is where my focus is.
Pink 4 ema has turned up. Needs confirmation but positive development. Add the potential double bottom plus todays hammer candle. Blue ema flattening and a 4/8ema up cross would lead to further testing upward. CCI is now out of highly oversold -100 line and RSI potential double bottom at its 30 line which has been a past bounce level. Both fast and standard MACD's maintaining +divergence movement. More potential added. Again confirmation needed. Lagging stoch may want to join the up group.

Still lots of resistance to navigate upward, however price close and confirmation above blue 8 ema would allow for testing the orange 13 ema. Stack all 3 of those positively with solid upward angle and getting into upper 9's and 10's would be looking like pretty good odds. Then it is getting past the midlines.

That is how I see things today without writing a book.
Green Trades.

[Citrati]

Good question. I am in the minority of TA traders in that aspect.
It is just preference on my part. I simply prefer equal distance between points so that there is no sizing or scaling difference. I like that each unit of a price change on the chart is represented by the same vertical distance regardless of the price level when the change occurred.
I use my indicators and ma's to identify rate of price change rather than taking keys from the logarithmic price style. It helps me visually because the items I place on the price chart like both ema's and ma's don't become too congested under certain price movement changes. They react the same way through each price increment. Many think my charts are too congested anyway. LOL.

Hope that helps.

Green Trades.

[Kentucky123]

Hi C
I notice that you do not use log scale on your charts. Any particular reason?

[BooDog]

A friend of mine lived in Thailand for years and kept trying to get me to come over for some golf. He's stateside now and I never made it over. Beautiful pictures though! Hope you had a great time.

This seems to be becoming the age of riding sprinters. Shorter term swing trades and trading around a core position seems to be becoming the edge for the little guy to add slices of the market pie consistently rather than just holding. Looking to add reduced price or free shares from trading JOBY is my plan.

That's been my strategy now for a few years. Swing and scalp and maintain a core position. I like both ACHR and JOBY. Loking to see if they catch lower support levels going into earnings. Both seem to have the volume and the support to continue sideways, we'll see how that factors with the bollinger tightening below the short term MA's. Money and fast sto may just hang in there.

Playing ATNM for a swing/pinch and PLX with a $3 target, PROK may get lively and then LXRX looking for a lifeline.

Cheers!!

[Citrati]

Mentioned some quantum computing stocks in Nov and again Dec. Wonder if anyone checked their charts out then.
Oh, back from Thailand now. Great place to visit for anyone who hasn't traveled there.
One day AVXL will likely get frisky again.
Still like JOBY and ACHR in the eVTOL sector.

I think I might have mentioned the small nuclear reactor sector a while back as well. NNE, OKLO and SMR have done nicely as well.

Green Trades Everyone.

[123tom]

Will do, C . Have a happy journey. T

[Citrati]

T, for about 2 1/2 more weeks I have a fourteen hour time difference, so hard to post much and only using phone.
Run a few charts and see what you like from the chart picture of my posted stocks. I need to look at several others besides what I have posted on your site. We can talk about them when I am in country again and over the jet lag. LOL, at 76 it is a real thing. 😎

Green Trades.
Stuff is looking good for now. Hold it all up for me at least til I am back and in step again.

[123tom]

C, my only stock now for a few years has been AVXL, I haven't had to study too many charts. I'm of the opinion that the market is controlled by the Trump administration, no longer by the Rothschild banker system. And we won't see a crash. I was watching carefully in October 2021, when they were shouting alarm warnings, expecting crash triggers like the collapse of the China real estate, the collapse of the 3 gorges dam, war with Taiwan, etc, and I watched the S+P for 2 years more, and it continued up, it's a game, and I decided based on the political clues, that suggested some other political power ,not the Rockefeller system, was in charge, I surmise we are not going to suffer a market crash...I'm not believing any fear hype anymore. I'm only studying AVXL , and my gold and silver charts. But I am interested in some of those stock picks you mentioned. I haven't been looking at new picks in a while. I do also like the idea of Quantum computer stocks. Med bed technology stocks, if there are any. C, I'm thinking the time has finally come for Anavex to flourish and become a big win. I'm fully invested. I hope you have a core position.
I'd be interested in your thoughts and experience with those stocks you like.

[Citrati]

Tom, how in the heck does this make sense? Sure hope the sheeples don't get stuck in up, up, up. It is a very narrow few dragging markets up both SPX and COMPQ etc.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2025/1/3/tmutpScreen_Shot_2025-01-03_at_9.31.57_AM.png

So, will the 493 other names in the S&P besides the Magnificent 7 rally back up toward the big names? Or will the Mag 7 sell off to catch up with the other 493 stocks? I have always believed that the market must first correct to catch up to the majority of stocks, then things can correct from there. It seems fanciful to me to wait for the 493 other stocks to rally back up toward the Magnificent 7. But then again, the algos will do what they please to throw off smart traders at times! 😶

[Citrati]

What AVXL Market Structure may be telling us in short term from Daily perspective.
These two views are a narrow view of one element so add your onTA stuff for fuller picture.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2024/12/29/hsdyjScreen_Shot_2024-12-29_at_10.21.41_AM.png

Weekly view.
Holding 200 period is much needed going forwrd IMO.
Price needs to hold top green lined horizontal support zone in order to have sufficient base strength for testing and maintaining 15.24 and above when news comes.
Keep in back of the mind that news can trump TA thus creating new targets.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2024/12/29/frburScreen_Shot_2024-12-29_at_10.26.01_AM.png

[123tom]

... to continue a little... the very large chart picture, shows a 'bottom' zone , let's say 3 dollars. You can analyze from 2 dollars as well, but what I want to mention is the picture of major Bottom (reverse head) and then, the series of shoulder zones, as support shoulders, and it looks simple enough to see.... From a major bottom zone around 3, you can see the swing pattern, swing waves, 3 to 7, back to 5, etc...and the pullbacks which held support at these shoulder zones..... holding at 5 dollar zone.... then holding at 7.20/7.50 zone.... there's a shoulder support around 8 dollars/8.40 area. And an old shoulder zone from 9.30 to 10.30.
The first support now is the 10-9 area.
In terms of classic Avxl technical trading and wall street games in the past ... I think a surging move like today would get hammered down again. Whether from 12 or 14 ,wherever it begins and would get slammed hard back to 8.50.
But with today's news, I don't think we would see that kind of weakness. Time will tell, but I'm watching to see signs of a different ballgame now.

[123tom]

Yes. Big big day. probably the biggest single day for my investment.
News driven. Big volume. Does this development finally begin a new cycle , in the big leagues for AVXL.? Much appreciate any and all your thoughts, of course. There are a few good fundamental analysts on the anavex forum I pay attention to, some very bullish, one remains very cautious, Doc, but I value his mindset.
The price action has always followed the wall street Rollercoaster game, way up, way down... and look how many years we watched it go from 2 dollars to 28, and 3 to 31, and back down.... all while the developing science and trials were in relatively early stages...but like you said, sooner or later successful developments that create approval and a buyout or whatever the success achievement plan is... at some point, the short attackers and price manipulation will have to stop, or change dramatically.
In my own chart outlook, technical target for this current rally, without spectacular news, but just ok news, has my target zone here from 11.50/12/13/14/15 , and let's see what the resistance looks like around 15... a double from the 7.50 shoulder bottom. Now , in just the simplest basic ways, as the dust settles, we're looking for the next pullback support zones, like the chart you posted, and From what resistance peak would that retrace begin.it might take a week to see it show us something. It could bleed up to 15, and sell back to 10... or it could climb to 15, pullback a dollar or two and then climb to 18. Or peak soon at 12 and somehow sell back to 10. The train tracks are switching, and the engine could be shifting gears. Time to recalibrate.
And yes, the 200 MA at 10 as a marker. And the very long term chart, has 10 dollars as a major pivot shoulder bottom, for a good while, a few years ago.

[Citrati]

Will the weekly 200 become support now at 10.33ish? The bulls are out today. $11.48 now and outside the upper bb on both weekly and daily. Filed and accepted now just need the actual approval announcement. AVXL may finally push the big boy's weak attempts to the side and bring real relief and improvement.

[Citrati]

Intraday is capped by daily 13 and 8ema's. Been that way for 6 weeks now. Price has room for more down unless a frisky market can give it traction. Possible double bottom or new 12 month low if not. Course news could trump the chart. Until buying comes in 1.96 is resistance.
Just my opinion.

Will continue to watch. Any near term catalysts?


https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2024/12/19/vpwlgScreen_Shot_2024-12-19_at_8.54.20_PM.png

[Citrati]

I have mentioned JOBY a few times over the last couple years in the eVTOL air taxi sector. They continue to progress. Due your own DD on anything I mention.

[Citrati]

I mentioned these 3 quantum computing stocks here first on November 26 and then again on Dec 11th. QUBT,QBTS and RGTI. Take a peak today. IONQ has been moving longer and was the first in the sector to catch my attention.

Green Trades Everyone.

[XenaLives]

An important part of the DD is that there are roughly 20 million shorts that can't cover because long term holders are in the money still and retail isn't selling in spite of the egregious AI manipulation of the price. The tech is real, they have money in the bank that should last them through the current last mile to commercialization.

[Citrati]

Thanks. I will have to check out LWLG. Wasn't following that one.

Green Trades.

[XenaLives]

IMO - that's also LWLG's prospect list.

I suspect that today's trading reflects the desperation of the shorts...

[Citrati]

Want to investigate the hot quantum computer sector? Here is a list of 18 stocks into quantum computing.

https://quantumzeitgeist.com/public-quantum-computing-companies

[Citrati]

Well here is how the blue box played out since the 7th. Today hasn't finished yet and it will be the close that is important.
That said, as of this moment all short term ema's and ma's of midlines have rolled over. EMA's are now negatively stacked and potential for them to increase downward price pressure will grow if they are still that way at the close.
Could be a very nice buy the dip opportunity coming for those with trading shares besides hold'em shares.

If one looks at the post linked to this one and click on the live stockcharts link you will see in the blue circles that trend has not yet broken down, while momentum is in danger of rolling over. Just a reminder that CMF, A/D and OBV don't update until days close.

[Citrati]

UPDATE from previous AVXL daily chart.
Yesterdays close is an either way potential for Monday next week.
Fast ema's are set to go stacked down resistance with potential power from midlines rolling over. The blue vertical box will tell the result. If up, then confirming above midlines and reversal to positive ema stacking must occur. The blue circle action is also important for the indicators. We closed the week with a ? no confirmation for either way on the daily.
Note also that red volume bars dominate the last 8 trading days. That must change for up to occur.

Full chart link for those with stockcharts account.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVXL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p59480897723&a=1637906248

Daily price chart only, viewable by all from screenshot.

[123tom]

☺️... yeah, it reminds me of Woody Allen's famous quote,where he says... I would never want to be a member of any group that would have me.👍️

[XenaLives]

Speaking of LAME...

It doesn't get much worse than this...

P.S. Blarcamesine seems to be a real treatment for mitochiondrial dysfunction...

[Citrati]

We would welcome you to your own board. 😎

[123tom]

Yeah, the AVXL forum is pretty lame,been that way for a few years now. I don't know why I bother to keep posting there. I should just stay here with you guys.🤓🙂

[123tom]

I guessed wrong for today's move...
It popped back up instead of down.
So for now ,we're looking at a pivot low 7.60, which is a lovely measurement of 2 dollars from the 9.60 shoulder top. I like seeing these kind of target moves...they seem so planned and contrived... 1 dollar and 2 dollar, then bounce 50%, then reverse and move 1 dollar , etc... just like a computer algorithm would be programmed to do. Yes, I'm still cynical about the wall street trading game. It always factors into my trading analysis.
So now,the chart pattern could be considered a Range pattern with this latest bottom at 7.59, it's in the zone ,alongside the past bottoms, 7.55 to 7.18, 7.30 area. I'm not sure I agree with your view of the 10 dollar double top... I think it was a 10 area spike double top fake out surge, both times. And one of those games that we've seen many times, the fake out and whipsaw reversal... so I might place more credence on the secondary resistance peak around 9.60 as my peak to measure the real technical trading... and it looks computer algo perfect for the bottom yesterday at 7.60.... how easy is that.
Now if the computer can just run on moron setting... we will see a 50% retrace hit 8.60 and reverse back down. But all kidding aside, I'm watching for this just to see if it could be a template. 7.60 was not a bad target to buy. I was deciding to be a little greedier and wait for one more tumble.
I'm looking at the chart as a Range Pattern now.

[sab63090]

I guess it is!,,,,as I mentioned elsewhere, I will stand aside for now......just got home after being tied up in traffic for more than 1 hour....glad I don't have to commute to work and suffer car crashes, raging & impatient types! Luckily I was behind a police car and made to our appointment 4 minutes before scheduled only because we left early....Serenity now!

[XenaLives]

With AI painting the tape, isn't all of your acquired human experience moot?

[sab63090]

Thanks, Citrati, I also welcome people who use TA and different views also...the learning process keeps one focused better...I no longer use shorter term indicators because of the time it takes me from enjoying my retirement until I just drop over...ha ha!
I take my wife for her follow up today so I will miss the opening and then some (after cataract and glaucoma surgery left eye yesterday)/

I retired from Morgan Stanley (for 26 years) more than 20 years ago at age 60 and can't step away from what I loved doing...the market, I'm now 80. Prior to that I worked at Merrill Lynch International (Commodities) for 7 years, then PaineWebber (merged with UBS) for 6 years..

I wish you and yours and all here good trading and enjoy reading everyone's posts....have a Merry Christmas and keep us watching things that you focus on, including that wretched thing called Avanex....lol

Best, Steve

[Citrati]

Yes, that is the more classic term IMO. Well done ye of the upper crust. I wondered, since you have been on the 'Street' if you would use that term in response. 👍️😎
A wonderful Christmas season to you and all here.

Post away., when you have something to add. Discussion not only passes the time, one is never too old to learn something, especially trading stocks. It is the reading of nuances that separates traders. Most anyone can soon learn to find major support and resistance. Yes, on potential for double bottom. I threw in the 65ema on the chart because the algo's sometimes us it on the markets and high priced stocks to throw off those who are rigid in 50, 100, 200. The 65ema would line up nicely for double bottom or bullish hook reversal if something occurs to bring the bulls back. Daily indicators all have room for more down from today. We shall see.

I posted here because I get tired of the TA is useless and stupid comment crowd on the AVXL board.

Trading is quite the addiction, yet intellectual stimulation. 😎

[sab63090]

My first reply was apparently not sent to you....but I appreciate your comments, however disagree with your comment on double tops...they only have to be near the prior high! We called those which hit at a lower level (hooks) in commodity trading...I agree with Tom's potential double bottom effort, too....$7.18 or your right below that seem reasonable.....Kentucky was using the bottom of the BB as a good spot....$7.45, also reasonable.....Old Mystic was using $8.00 which seemed OK, too....I will stand aside at this point and observe. Regards.....

[sab63090]

Citrati
Thanks for your comments and your impressions, too! I will take issue with it not being a double top though...the price does not have to be exactly to the prior high but rather near it. You are correct that it was slightly below the prior high (we used to label it "a hook" in commodity trading)..right now the price does not look "great" with a volume break pointing to where Tom suggested and visible on the chart (near towards $7.20 to $7.35)....Kentucky is using the bottom of the BB...$7.45....I won't venture a price guess..the 200 day shows about 6 tries at breaking out, ALL were failures....I just choose to watch...best!

[Citrati]

TOM and SAB,
Update to Daily from 7 days ago. ( Not a classic double top) on daily or weekly IMO. Just a lower high when one draws the line between the two. Also the difference in candle bodies plays into it IMO.
Weekly shows it is just continuing 200period resistance and daily candles aren't a double top IMO.
Tomorrow likely confirms todays fall through supports and we look hopefully for support between closing price and the upward 50period currently 6.94. If this fails then from the 50 to the green 100 period is in play.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/uimage/uploads/2024/12/5/toyczScreen_Shot_2024-12-05_at_2.11.41_PM.png

[Rubyred77]

It would be interesting to see your views on crypto charts. Or is that too Wild Wild West 

[123tom]

I followed my TA trading instinct in recent days, watching AVXL, and placed my trade sell in the docket the night before and today's open gave me the whole 1.10 jump. I've had to wait 9 months for this chance to get that trade cash back. I missed the first spike to 10.30 a few weeks ago, I was ready for it this time. 👍️
Thanks for those stock picks, I might take a look.🫣 🙂

[Citrati]

Anyone interested in AI, the quantum area is hot right now. Biggest movers are QUBT, QBTS and RGTI on % basis. As these are lower priced than the big boys make sure to do you own DD of both fundamentals and TA. Unless there is news to pile on news it is usually not a good idea to buy overbought tops, so follow your trading system rules not emotion.

Green Trades.

[Citrati]

Besides AVXL I like JOBY and it's current movement. ACHR is the current competition for JOBY, however there is room for both as they are focusing on different aspects of the eVTOL trillion dollar market. Do your own DD. As always buyer beware. Understand the FA and TA when considering. Mentioned these a few times the last couple years.

[123tom]

The fine art of scalping and day trades. You could probably write a book at this point.
Do you count Elliott Waves at all? I still look at it. I'm focusing still on the basic patterns, like head and shoulders, resistance levels. Even simple math price targets like AVXL 1 dollar moves. Sometimes 2 dollar moves. Right now, looks like that to me... The pattern, pulling back to 9.00 support, could hold here and rally 1 dollar to target 10. Or in the down direction, could bounce up here at 9.00 to hit the shoulder resistance around 9.30 and roll over and tumble to begin the 1 dollar down to target 8.30.
I'm watching for the bounce right now at 9.00 and see what the resistance looks like around 9.30. Time frame could be 3 or 4 days, maybe 2. But this move wouldn't be a day trade.

[Citrati]

I do not use options or warrants because that increases my personal risk if price in the underlying ETF or stock reverses or moves quickly in spurts.
My leverage comes from using 1 1/2 to 3 times ETF's. Most are 2X ETF's. Stocks are un-leveraged so I look for volatility in the stock itself. Stocks moving very slowly or sideways don't fit the bill. It is rare for one of my trades to last beyond an hour. The majority last 15 to 45 minutes.

I know another trader who uses the method described with zero day SPY options and have seen trades of his go from up 100% to down 100% or more a couple times. You literally cannot leave to pee during these trades incase there is a large reversal volume. How much price of the option moves relative to the move of the index is not always consistent either. Time of day makes a difference and changes.
Since market it is controlled by big money and not retail if the price of an ETF moves a certain distance, that is directly causal to the price I am gaining or losing on. I don't have to guesstimate anything other than trade the chart as close to a robot as I can. My goal is consistent profit rather than how big a score I can get every time. "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered".
While individual stocks and sectors are also affected I find for me they are more predictable.