"2018 could be a great year for anavex, 2019 will be a fanatstic year for anavex "
Again, this is speculation. I happen to agree that each passing day brings us one step closer to a hopefully positive outcome, but lots of trials do well in P1 or P2A and then underwhelm when the stakes become real. I don't know what Anavex will do, nor do you, nor does Dr. Missling, nor do the "shorts," or anyone else. The best we can do is use the information at hand to make an informed decision, and you're right, so far the data has proven worthy of further study.
My 25% guess for approval is significantly greater than the .004% chance that past drugs have demonstrated. That alone should convey an overall bullish sentiment -- I don't post on boards or hold stocks in companies that I do not think offer significant future upside.
That said, I try to be realistic about the odds we face. You are saying that a 200x increase is possible. At $750/share, which would give Anavex a MC of $37.5B. I think it's a LOT more likely that Dr Missling would sell the company well before the stock ever got anywhere near there. Alzheimer's can be estimated to be worth $20B or so, that's what BIIB's MC dropped when its drug underperformed, if I am not mistaken.
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