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Thursday, December 01, 2016 3:31:25 PM
Very interesting. That was NPV as of 2014, not what the price might otherwise be with real approval and revenues and accounting for current price ranges and market caps (for comparables) that they likely used to derive that number. It also only accounts for GBM DCVax-L, not DCVax Direct, which would be a much broader application and set of indications. Nor does it account for the Cancer Moonshot program efforts or the new changes in law here and abroad that could expedite other applications and get them to patients sooner, assuming they work and that DCVax-L will be validated shortly.
Given JUNO's valuation, not that long ago, for a fairly narrow set of indications, that NPV of 5.5B in 2014 was not all that unreasonable for a developmental stage company, and of course, with potentially over $2B in revenue, if it hit that in 2020, the multiples would likely be much higher, leading to a valuation , one might assume, much higher, upon approval and broad use, than $5.5B.
http://info.evaluategroup.com/rs/evaluatepharmaltd/images/EP240614.pdf
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