NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[lattices]

My colleague, a current long term NWBO investor, is more confident about NWBO's future than I am. My difficulty in understanding all the facets of risk/issues/legal entanglements paradoxically has improved my interest in buying at this point.

I now own five stocks, and I feel I have an information advantage relative to the market in this order:

1. CLNV
2. PRTO
3. ARGS
4. VSAR
5. NWBO


As you can see, I am quite aware that I lag many on this board for specific knowledge. Even though I have been studying and reading about NWBO for a number of months.

I give a percentage risk of failure to each of these. For example, PRTO has approximately a 7-8% risk. I double it and prepare for a 15% chance of losing all my money.

I give a relatively high percentage risk to losing all my money in NWBO. This, in contrast to my colleague, who gives a much lower risk of near or total capital loss in his NWBO investment.

Some of the differential between us is that he has more specific knowledge of NWBO. And, also, he is using different metrics. For example, in small biotech/medical devices, if the founding VCs do not own a wide majority of shares and control the BOD, I view the investment as much higher risk. If there's an unknowable trial failure risk -- as is true in both ARGS and NWBO -- I view the risk as higher than it may be.

The fact that I cannot devote the time -- or perhaps have the specific knowledge set -- to understand NWBO as well as many on this board is not, at this point, deterring my investment.

I think AF and the like have chased away anyone but the sturdiest, and this has eviscerated my investment competition. I'm not competing with institutions for shares; if I've struggled for so long and with significant time investment and some basis of talent to get past the hurdle of buying shares, most retail will not overcome the purchase hurdle.

Few would question that the trial restart + combo trial value is worth the current share price. Where someone might worry is that the share price would decline as more money is raised. However, I doubt this will substantively decline the actual market value -- there will simply be some shares sold at lower prices. Maybe the market cap of the company will decline 20%? 30%, but also maybe not. Anything in that range, given the upside, is easily tolerable.

I simply need to try to balance my present greed at owning a stake if there is market-impacting upside news, with the resources to purchase additional shares.