These reports you are posting, AEK, are quite useful. Perhaps remedial for some, but I am in the category where they are providing context for the trial halt (or whatever appropriate term.)
If I only look at the risk/reward of the trial restarting (and, again, since the specific words seems to be a sensitive issue to some on the Board -- whatever word one finds appropriate,) it seems worth the market cap of $50M.
For me, the added optionality of combo trials adds to the compelling risk/reward.
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As many on the Board know, in early biotech venture capital rounds, it's presumed that there will be numerous subsequent added rounds, often at worse/downround pricing. This is why in VC deals they have a "pay or play" clause, where if a VC firm declines to participate in any/each subsequent round, their shares are demoted from preferred to common, which defacto reduces their value immensely in the pre-IPO capital structure.
I purchased my first shares yesterday, in two sets. I'll likely purchase a third set next week.
I am setting aside a multiple of these amounts to participate in each dilution/repricing going forward.
I'm giving a great deal of thought this weekend to developing the optimal balance of current upside of having a full house of shares if news comes soon-ish, but I also want to be able to participate in each future round.
As I've written in posts late in the week, I've been exceedingly skeptical of the company, and put all my dendretic investment in argos. However, the Cognate give-back from Tuesday has turned me, along with friendly prodding from a current nwbo investors who I respect. Cognate had alternative approaches that were equally acceptable to NASDAQ and much better for Cognate, yet Cognate opted for a resolution which significantly advantaged the NWBO shareholder.
Everyone invested in NWBO has had to just get used to successive downrounds (dilutions at ever lower prices.) As Smith outlined in the commentary you posted yesterday, there this will need to continue, until there is specific positive news. However, even corporate management cannot know specifically the date when the FDA will provide final clarity. I concluded that without some initial position, I had no opportunity to benefit from this day of FDA clarity.
Some on the board were uneasy with my lacing comments with my lack of confidence in NWBO management. However, there's a point where the informational and trust impediments are so high, that it creates an informational barrier to entry, providing extra-attractive pricing to buyers of shares. Woodford has, by his position, provided a third-party review of management on behalf of common shareholders. If/when NWBO inevitably raises additional substantial cash, either from an investor or a BP partner, additional management review and controls will likely be established that also benefits the common shareholder.
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