Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

$GILD - Of the 22 anaylst reports after 4Q14 that I reviewed, 14 gave estimates for Q1 for earnings and HCV sales. Some of them broke down the sales estimates into US and OUS. The following is the list of each analyst ranked by HCV sales estimate - highest to lowest. This post is responding to my post that summarizes the estimates for earnings and HCV sales for '15 and beyond.

Analyst - Q1 earnings est - HCV est. - US/UOS
Baird - $2.98/sh - $5.279B
Maxim - $2.46/sh - $3.924B
WellsFar - $2.34 - $3.829B - US $3.121B/EU $.591B
MorgSt - $2.33/sh - $3.699B - US $2.384B/EU $1.025B
Cowen - $2.45/sh - $3.625B
WmBlair - $2.26/sh - $3.620B
Guggenh - $2.41/sh - $3.599B
Piper - $2.16/sh - $3.565B - US $2.88B/EU $.625B
Needham - $2.05/sh - $3.542B - US $2.707/OUS $.83519
BMO - $2.31/sh - $3.530B
RBC - $2.12/sh - $3.450B - US $2.825B
CredSuis - $1.89/sh - $3.404B
Nomura - $2.08/sh - $3.242B
JPMorgan - $1.78/sh - $2.799B

My current guess is for $2.80/sh (vs. ~$2.28 current consensus) and $4.4B sales of HCV scripts. $2.80/sh of earnings results in about $9.40/sh of TTM earnings. Again, the amount of OUS HCV sales is the largest unknown.