Biotech Values

[Rocky3]

$GILD analysts reports - Have now reviewed 22 different analyst reports after Q4 earnings. Some (like Credit Suisse) have put out a couple reports. Others (like Wells) put out weekly commentary after script numbers, so I expect there will continue to be changes. I did not give a summary after Q3 since the numbers looked pretty accurate, or maybe even too optimistic (though they turned out to be somewhat too low). The numbers again appear too low to me, though nowhere as low as they were after 1Q14. I'm going to give a quick summary of the numbers, primarily by giving the range, medium, and average of the numbers.

Price target - 20 reports provided price targets. 7 were decreased and 1 increased after earnings - the range was from 84 to 159 - the lows were 84 (Jeffries), 85 (Goldman), and 94 (BOAML) - the highs were 159 (BMO), 143 (Guggenheim) - the medium was 120 and the average was 119.55

Q1 earnings - 18 provided an estimate - the range was 1.82 to 2.98 - the lows were 1.82 (Credit Suisee), and 1.99 (Deut Bank) - the highs were 2.98 (Baird) and 2.50 (Barclays) - the medium was 2.285, as was the average.

'15 earnings - 21 estimates - the range was 8.21 to 10.83 - the lows were 8.21 (JPM), 8.42 (CS), and 8.66 (Needham) - the highs were 10.83 (Baird), 10.18 (Wells), and 10.17 (Guggenheim) - the medium was 9.55 and the average was 9,50

'16 earnings - 19 estimates - the range was 8.19 to 14.07 - the lows were 8.19 (Baird), 8.31 (CS), and 8.53 (BOAML) - highs were 14.07 (Maxim), 11.60 (Cowan), and 11.50 (Barclays) - the medium was 10.50 and the average was 10.20

'17 earnings - 17 estimates - the range was 7.72 to 15.41 - the lows were 7.72 (BOAML), 8.16 (CS), 9.84 (Goldman) - the highs were 15.41 (Maxim), 13.00 (Cowan), and 12.38 (Wells) - the medium is 10.90 and the average is 11.04

skipping '18 and '19

'20 earnings - 7 estimates - the range is 6.05 to 18.82 - the lows were 6.05 (CS) and 11.81 (Piper) - the highs were 18.82 (Maxim) and 15.09 (Morgan Stanley) - the medium was 12.45 and the average 12.90


Baird went from the highest numbers in '15 to the lowest in '16 -a cliff in extreme.

Maxim seemed to be the only one that considered Japan HCV revenue to any extent.

If I have time later, I may add the HCV estimates in the reports (and total revenue).

I still think that the Q1 earnings will be much better than estimates. The idea that people can estimate sales and earnings in '20 is pretty silly. But it is their job I guess.