Replies to post #188627 on Biotech Values

[masterlongevity]

$remarkable how different the Baird and JPM estimates are. Both are clearly outliers

[Rocky3]

Re $GILD-

From the middle of March -

My current guess is for $2.80/sh (vs. ~$2.28 current consensus) and $4.4B sales of HCV scripts. $2.80/sh of earnings results in about $9.40/sh of TTM earnings. Again, the amount of OUS HCV sales is the largest unknown.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gilead-sciences-announces-first-quarter-200100723.html

Not bad. OUS was even a little higher than I thought and FX didn't hurt as much as I thought. Let's see what issues come up on the call.

[Rocky3]

Re $GILD:

From the analysts that made Q1 estimates back in Feb:

Analyst - Q1 earnings est - HCV est. - US/UOS
Baird - $2.98/sh - $5.279B
Maxim - $2.46/sh - $3.924B
WellsFar - $2.34 - $3.829B - US $3.121B/EU $.591B
MorgSt - $2.33/sh - $3.699B - US $2.384B/EU $1.025B
Cowen - $2.45/sh - $3.625B
WmBlair - $2.26/sh - $3.620B
Guggenh - $2.41/sh - $3.599B
Piper - $2.16/sh - $3.565B - US $2.88B/EU $.625B
Needham - $2.05/sh - $3.542B - US $2.707/OUS $.83519
BMO - $2.31/sh - $3.530B
RBC - $2.12/sh - $3.450B - US $2.825B
CredSuis - $1.89/sh - $3.404B
Nomura - $2.08/sh - $3.242B
JPMorgan - $1.78/sh - $2.799B

So Baird was too high on HCV sales, but around the earnings number (hope they are wrong on '16). The rest were way to low - just like all of '14. Again, the OUS number was a huge miss (for me too).

It will be interesting to see the numbers for Q2. Most likely, the analysts will be much closer, and may be even too high since US scripts are declining and more contracts are kicking in.

Most amazing thing to me - Harvoni is the highest selling drug in the world in its FIRST FULL QUARTER of sales ($3.437B vs. $3.111B for Humira - not including Sovaldi sales). Never happened before and will never happen again. JMO.