By the way all the doctor has to do is write daw on prescription and you will not get generic. Depending on your plan it could be more expensive

It goes much further than that. Couple of questions for u. Did your script have your triglyceride level on it. I'm sure it didnt as that info is only known by you and your doctor. Your pharmacist definitely has no knowledge of the skinny lable and only follows the direction of your insurance/PBM. Another question are you using v off lable or have you had 2 prior cardiac events or diabetes. I know about 7 people on it. All off lable. So both vascepa and the generic are used off label and are legal. Would not doubt that 50 percent of all prescriptions V and generic are off lable but amarin is not breaking any laws selling to people who dont meat the label requirements. The issue is you cannot market the drug for off label use.

I can't disagree with anything you said. Assuming compensation is blocked you have to be prepared for sarissa to sell out and walk away from board. That would definitely be a short term hit to stock price

The advantage of having big short interest at 26 percent

Biggest mistake investors can ever make is looking at their unrealized p and l to determine what to do with a stock. Your money should be in the stocks or bonds that will perform the best with your desired risk. If you think amrn is one of the best choices to make money in the future than hold and even add to it. If you lose say 50k in a stock it does not mean that you have to make the money back in the same company. Holding on to a stock because you are losing money in it makes no sense. If the fundamentals are as good as when you bought it then add to it. If they have changed and are now negative sell and put the money in a stock that can recoup your money. Every day an investor should think that they are buying the stock that day. If you bought a stock at 50 and now iit n is 20 you dont buy or sell because you are down 60 percent. You buy because it is undervalued and sell because it is overvalued. One last point. In general stocks that are down large percentages are usually that way because the fundamentals have deteriorated. If your use unrealized p as d l as a basis for stock ownership you will end up holding the losers and selling the winners.
My largest position for the last 20 years is isrg. I have bought and sold it probably 100 times. I always kept between 10 to 12 percent of my portfolio in it. A year and a half ago the fundamentals started to change. Competition from j j and mdt was coming. I lowered my allocation to 7 to 9 percent. I never looked if I was making or losing money. I put the funds in vrt for ai. Crwd because it has become oversold with other SAS stocks. And a high risk bio iova. I believe that combo will outperform isrg going forwatd

Have you ever thought maybe there is no news on any of the things you mentioned. Remember they make money same as you. Stock going up. Amrn is very different than other smid cap bio stocks that are always reporting trial results that have no revenues. This is a company you buy because you think it is undervalued based on this drug for the approved indications. Hopfully they have something new. But is very possible there is no announcements because their is nothing new.

I am not going to argue about your statement because this is a activist hedge fund that should have had a plan when they took control of the company. Looks like their plan was just one side of the income statement. Cut expenses. But he is corect with his statement also, everyone has complained about all the management teams that has controlled this company as the stock price fell with all of them. So if you believe that they have a great product and no one can manage it you should sell. Management is as important as the product

Agree. When I have a stock that is underperforming the market I hope for a large growing short position. Another reason why it can outperform in the future. Never good to have a falling stock price with a declining short position. No guarantee that longs selling their position will ever get back in. Shorts will end up buying back. It's like a permanent sell verses a temporary one

That is only for trades done off exchanges but still shows a negative view. Could also be hedging verses a long call position

Every stock trades multi decimal points for volume. Have you ever reinvested dividends. In fact I'm pretty sure it goes 5 decimal points. Most brokers trade fractional shares. I guess every stock is manipulated. Two questions for you. Since there is such little volume and short interest in the stock who is manipulating it and for what reason. All I know is it is not institutions. Didnt even trade a million dollars today.. we used to have a running joke on the trading floor picking which person would blame their loses on manipulation.

There was nothing going on. the bid was 14.23 and someone put a market order in to sell. So it fell 55 cents. It is meaningless. The last trade means nothing use the bid ask. If some followed with a market buy it would have went up 55 cents. Again meaningless. Now it is 14.45 to 14.78. Huge spreads due to lack of orders.

The court decision will not remove the 6 generics who did not illegally market the drug from the market. It would additional cash to their balance sheet. New drug that insurance companies cannot substitute generic for is a solution not a decision against 1 generic company.B y the way the rest of the patents in u s expire around 2032

Marzan I disagree with your statement that the biggest overhang on AMRN stock is legal. If they win the stock my get a short term bounce but no sustained gains. The overhang is 2 things. U S patent loss and slow ramp of sales in the rest of the world. If one of these things changes you will begin to see institutional investors especially mutual funds get back in the stock. It is all about revenue growth.

xbi Up 6.5 percent. Two major buyouts. APLS by biib and cnta by lly

Probably what happened in the posted article except this time they forgot to change the numbers. The losses are probably for the previous stock they published . Lazy and stupid

I've never subscribed to any news letter to provide me with buy sell opinions. I do read analyst reports on a regular basis to get access to information on things like competitors, surveys for hospital spending which is important for the medical device sector and doctor surveys for their plans with new drug approvals. . Just want information . Not buy sell recommendations. I have a friend who spends thousands on newsletters. I will say some really do put work into it but zach's is not one of them. This board could publish an amrn newsletter and sell a weekly update with all the quality information and well thought out opinions. Most opinions. Still some pumpers but large majority give both sides of the argument

Wht a total joke they are. How anyone listens to them is beyond me. Losing 6 bucks a share in 26 and 4 in 27. Embarrassing, do a little research before giving a stock a rating.

I see 12.84

https://hedgefollow.com/funds/Sarissa+Capital+Management

I dont think it has anything to do with pills. Free society letting the demand determine price verses benefit it did very well. Row with price fix not at all. I would bet any money if they met the price in these countries all would be approved now. This have nothing to do with the drug. All companies go through it and some never get reimbursement. I cant tell you how long it took for celgene to get reimbursement for revlimid or MS drugs from vertex. Those were large companies that could afford to meet the aprovable prices required for reimbursement because they had many drugs generating revenues. AMRN CANT.

If your right about a new formulation and it obtains approval then who knows. Should be much higher than 1 billion. If the world environment stays exactly the same especially in the U S. I cannot see this being a 1 billion dollar company especially with the patents expiring in I believe 2032.

Everyone blames management and calls it a wonder drug. I disagree on missed opportunities statement. By the way I am not sticking up for management. One has been worse than the other. First the U S. Cant blame management there. Revenues uptake was excellent and would have continued. Drug was a huge success Yes they absolutely screwed up with the patent. Paying off apotec and teva while leaving hikma and reddy out was just a total waste of money and beyond stupid.. Only takes one to file anda and then amrn has to sue. Canada has been aproved for 6 years and is a total disaster. So I guess it is HLS management fault. Also they partnered with Pfizer. That was such a disaster that hls cancelled it. I guess Pfizer had bad management also. EU been approved for 5 years and still near zero revenues. Cant even get approved in germany and italy. So now we will blame that on amarin management. China . Edding could not get reimbursement. Again they must have bad management. Just possibly other than the U S which had a great launch the rest of the worlds universal govt paid healthcare has zero interest in the drug and it is not amarin, HLS, PFE or eddings fault

Could be wrong but I have never seen any mention by the company or read in an analyst report. All from this board . The patent app of course has been filed but I do not remember amrn mentioning that either

I know that well. Lost my shirt in a large variety of smid cap bio stocks the turn started in april 25 with the xbi now up 50 percent since.

Makes sense. My overall point is many think because denner is involved there must be a plan and everything is going to be ok. Well every fund has losers and he has had many over the last 10 years as his fund value has been depleted. He has winners and losers no different than any other investor.

These are the non 13f assets for hedge funds . Doubt he has much overseas exposure in biotech. Dont know. Definitely could be short or options.
Missing Data: They only report long positions, excluding shorts, derivatives (futures/swaps), and cash positions.
Non-US/Non-Public Assets: They often miss significant foreign holdings, as the requirement focuses on U.S.-listed securities

Ok their 13f assets are done 80 percent

I read a story about a year ago that sarissa was in the bottom 10 percent in performance over the last 5 years. That did include the horrible biotech underperformance. He had 4 positions down over 90 percent . I cant find it but this is very telling. Their aum is down 80 percent in the last 2 years and back to 2013 levels.

https://www.holdingschannel.com/aum/sarissa-capital-management-lp-aum/#:~:text=The%20most%20recent%20Sarissa%20Capital,Sarissa%20Capital%20Management%20LP%20AUM.

EU is going to be a totally different business model going forward. It will be very lumpy and I'm not really sure what the annual revenues will be. From the call
European sales in the fourth quarter of 2024 included direct sales only; once the transition to a fully partnered sales model is complete, European sales will consist only of supply shipments to Recordati.
As far as expenses go it is very easy spending 20 million a quarter. Legal, management reporting and back office support adds up. Annual system costs , rent, salary and benefits. Not sure how many people they have left. They cut all sales and marketing

The current price or mark is meaningless. Only thing that matters is bid ask. right now it is 15.46b and 15.81 ask. So if someone buys 100 shares it will go up 38 cents. If it goes up 38 cents on 100 shares will u say this sht has to stop. If you want smaller moves up and down put an order in to buy at 15.6 and sell at 15.7. Then it will only move 10 cents.

None. It only has 43 drugs. the largest selling drugs like glp 1

Your statement is correct but much more complicated then just a simple generic substitute. All pharma and generic companies bundle their drugs. So for example teva says if you sub generic V we will give a discount on drug a b and c. Impossible for small drug companies to compete.

The one problem with your statement is the pharmacy, pbm, insurance company has no idea what your triglyceride level is. The script does not contain the info. only patient and doctor know. Since a doctor can write prescription off label the pbm can still sub any generic. Same as today. The pbm subs generic since levels are unknown. You call it infringing but no one from the pharmacy to the generic company knows your levels.Having approval for 150 to 499 will not help. What may help is if the fda classifies as a new entity. Therefore their is no generic but sure that would cost hundreds of millions in trials.

Right now I see that as the only way out with current patents expiring in 2032. By the way my knowledge of the legal aspects of the argument solving amrn issues I have minimal knowledge in but I do not understand how that gets the generics from the U S market. Hikma definitely illegally marketed the generic and the others did not. That is why apotec teva etc are not being sued. But I would never argue with a person who has knowledge of the law

The amazing and very positive thing is amrn keeping 50 percent of the market. It is near impossible for a single drug company to compete with generics. The bundling they do with pbms putting the generic in a higher tier and then giving discounts on drug a and b makes it near impossible for any drug company. So they are definitely buying time to figure out a long term solution. I do not believe the company will be sold in the near term. Not because sarissa or stockholders dont want to sell it more because the stock will not fetch the value they expect. Last year bio had an excellent year in m and a. The average premium was 84 percent. People hear are talking thousands of percent. By the way my history with amrn is around 20 years. First was a huge win bought in the 2 and 3s was down hugr for years and sold all at 16. Over the last 10 have lost on every share and option purchase. Bought back around 10 I did have puts covering my long pos when we lost the patent covering 80 percent of my losses. Sold everything the next day at 4. At least 20 trades since all losers.

I agree to a point. So many posts have talked about would a new formulation require a whole new set of trials. If the answer is no because,it has the same active ingredients then it opens up a possib.e problem with pbm and insurance companies. They could easily substitute the generic for new V since it basically the same drug. A few other comments on new form. I do not agree that they cant announce plans for a new formulation because of competitive reasons. Every othe drug company lists every trial and pre trial drugs on their website. If they announced it who is the competitor that is going to gain an upper hand. But also in the other direction I feel something is going on because they are not doing the buyback preserving the cash for something

Very true. Also the argument on what will move the stock to a sustainable higher price not a one or multiple day bounce for me is only 1 thing. Getting the u s market back with an extended patent life. Believe the patent expires around 2032.

I would change the wording on your last sentence. Not the market. The institutional investor. As you know this stock is in the bottom 10 percent owned by institutions. Remove sarissa and it is bottom 5. If that number was double or triple the stock would be trading much higher. Now the question is why do the institutional investors stay clear of the stock. No matter if you are a mutual or hedge fund you are benchmarked on something. For the long only mutual if you run a bio pharma fund you can be benchmarked on any of the many pharma bio index etfs like ibb xbi etc. That is all they care about. The bonus is based on performance verses some index. Hedge fund the same but much more complicated as they usually have longs hedged by multiple legged options. So they dont think it is a value destroyer just their are better potential out performers availabe. Think about the huge winners in the bio space over the last few years and what moves the stocks. Rarely it is an eps beat or low pe or peg ratio. Probably 90 percent of the time it is results of a successful trial. Look at the majority of m and a last year. Probably 80 percent have zero revenues. Buying the pipeline.Small cap bio does not trade like a consumer staple. Investors rarely look and say selling at a low pe or cash. Verses market cap. I had a report in april that showed 45 percen of all small cap bio stocks had larger cash values than market cap. Sure that has changed drastically since the xbi has made a huge run. Bio performance equal pipeline and patents.

I can tell you what I was told at merrill for different securities that required phone call. Had nothing to do with market orders. The amount of fraud for on line trading was rising significantly over the last few months. They stated the old pump and dump schemes.. they put the security checks on companies where the fraud occurred and also those that had small market cap or very low volume

Yes also a verification security procedure at ml

Those 2 companies are not trading at their current valuation because of their triglyceride drugs. Both have huge pipelines with around 25 active trials in a variety of indications ions is 12b and arwr 8b. They cannot be compared to amrn because of 1 drug treating same indication
https://ionis.com/science-and-innovation/pipeline

https://arrowheadpharma.com/pipeline/