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6 months of demos = don't expect a deal anytime soon. New tier1's after OFC emphasis just amplifies that message.
And of course he spilled the beans when validated that the old bugaboo of the skeptics - reliability and scalability - was a concern to the NDA companies that he was talking to.
Funny that he didn't seem to know that when he put out the Dec 4 letter though, huh?
EDIT: Proto always has a ready cut and paste reply whenever I post, to try and counter me. This one is about TFLN - which shows that he has missed the point: The industry has spoken about TFLN - and while it is still several years off (at best), the industry has NOT spoken about Perkamine.
To be clear - Google, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Microsoft and others have all weighed in on TFLN - some sighting the power savings - one saying it will only take days instead of months to cycle through, etc...
The amount of talk re polymers is very small in comparison.
NONE of that matters though if you know how to read Dr Lebby's lips.
I just meant I"m a newcomer to this stock story. Not here to argue. My question was straightforward and I have nothing more to add. Thanks for all opinions shared.
as a newcomer I look at the fact that it traded below 8 cents just 5 weeks ago and some saying phase 3 results likely won't be announced until June.
That combination makes me wary and want to wait for a much more significant pullback.
For those that are strong supporters, what would be a good counter argument to that?
TOP 5 REASONS TO BUY LIGHTWAVE:
1. The Thrill of the Unknown!
With Lightwave you never know where things stand. For every wink or claim of excitement there are dozens of unanswered questions. As the mystery unravels you'll have goosebumps with all the twists and turns, just like being on an screeming roller coaster!: Who saw the massive bonuses and director sales only months after being told they were in Foundries in 2021? Who knew that PDK's had a flip side that took another year to cook and still aren't done? Who expected deal after deal once the first one was announced - and on the very day of ASM?! How exciting! And we all STILL can't wait to hear who it was with!
2. Live the Life of Luxury!
Own one of the most expensive pre-commercial stocks on the entire market as a simple screening for market cap will show! Don't let the falling price fool you - it is still VERY expensive and you get to own it! Trading 9 times it's historical market cap and sporting one of the highest percentages of short ownership in the market, you'll feel like a real King or Queen with this shiny one! Ca-ching!
3. Fun in the Sun!
Trek on down to Florida to hang out with your fellow longs outside the iron gate to Mr Marcelli's beach house that he bought with his $2.6m cash bonus after the ASM 2021 surprise. Watch the Millionaire's Club play volleyball on his private beach. Mr Leonberger has a mean spike - it goes careening off of ML's noggin every time as he tries to block it with 2 wiggly fingers. What fun!
2. Make Friends and Influence People!
It's a true Dream Team. A more devoted group you'll not find in this stock. 15 years of denial creates a bond of togetherness and steely conviction like no other! True believers. You'll laugh together, drink wine together, and pray for relief from the endless pain together. Hearts will bond forever as you advance through the Higher Levels of Enlightenment. The Word is that when you reach the Top Level you'll know how to interpret the secret hand signals from the Great One Himself.
1. Making the World A Better Place!
Everyone knows of course that It's all for naught if we don't give back, right? And who better to give to than LPC - the guys that make it all happen year after year? These folks have been selling retail shares going on 12 years now, and they are very very happy. As is the Millionaire's Club too, of course, who knows just what to say and what not to say to keep people cutting and pasting THE DREAM day in day out. You truly will be living the dream when you help others do the same. May the Great One Bless You Forever and Ever. Amen.
I was the first poster here years ago and Steve S. and I shared an interest for a while, but once the CEO died and revenues from Oculus failed to impress I got out.
Too bad what happened here, but the financials always were so weak -
thanks Dan! eom
chemo, but when? Is there enough to keep it going right now?
Is dog diarrhea approval the catalyst here or something bigger coming, and when?
Reanimator NAILED IT here recently:
Some predictions for the next couple months, as we slide from the $3s on down:
-Lebby will continue to “demonstrate thought leadership.”
-marco will continue to post increasingly convoluted and preposterous excuses to explain away LWLG’s failure to commercialize. (We should be grateful for the levity these unintentionally hilarious posts provide).
-scope will continue to insist that “loyalty” and “defending the board” - not cold hard facts or reality - are the most important things for investors.
-jeunke will nervously scan his financial advisory contracts with his clients to see if there’s a clawback provision that allows them to recoup their mismanaged money. Also, there might be a run on pitchforks in Belgium.
-carl will say that sure, he expected news by now - but he’s goshdarn positive that there will be news soon, maybe by end of year, or possibly next year, or the year after!
-x will continue to insist that the shorts are really, really, really in trouble and that he’s excited to be able to pick up more shares, as he reaches across the breakfast table for his bottle of bourbon.
-kcc will say “Maybe saying I was in love with Lebby all over again after he failed to deliver any deals was a bad call on my part. And I guess I have been 100% wrong on my business predictions so far. But I’m still bullish on the company! Who’s with me? Anyone? Anyone?”
-protopump will continue to copy and paste the same spam posts he always has, leaning into his role as the human photocopy machine.
-xena will focus her efforts on hitching a ride on the Hale Bopp comet, so that she can finally unlock the hidden mysteries of the universe and expose the nefarious cabal that has been keeping LWLG down.
You heard it here first, folks!
Newcomers, most here do NOT know what they own. 33 questions they simply can't give a good answer to:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174232127
Easy peasy to explain why the market has soured on the stock since the farce of ASM 2021 when the CEO gave a strong indication that they would be commercializing in a massive way by year end or soon thereafter...instead the entire management team lined their pockets...sad..but the good news is that YOU CAN VERIFY THIS - just watch what was presented from mins 6-20 for yourself - search Lightwave ASM 2021 on youtube.
I've taken on a mission to counter the bs that is spread here year in year out, as it may help save some from losing a lot of money.
I see Proto has ALREADY responded within 2 minutes with his cut and paste about TFLN -- he misses the point entirely which is that the industry has warmed up to TFLN but seems to know almost nothing about Perkamine, and regardless - it's a slow transition either way.
Good luck Newcomer. Perfect example of what you'll encounter on this board..
Here are the latest narratives to catch up on events occurring after the Red Flags sticky post at the top of the posts here which was published last August. That 'sticky' should at the least help you see the scope of the problem with this company.
1. Shareholders anticipate all reliability information to be released at ECOC (fall 2023), after which there will be no further delays in deal-making and 'floodgates' to open. ECOC resulted in select information being shared, and a report clearly indicating that for the first time companies were starting to want to learn more about what Lightwave offers. This was in contrast to the "Tier1s pushing the company' narrative now several years old.
2. Dec 4: CEO releases very positive shareholder letter when the stock is bleeding badly, which suggests strongly deals within a month or two. Tomorow it will be 5 months and still no deal.
3. Late February: CEO explains lack of deals due to requests for more evidence of reliability and scalability. CEO sets new goals for 2024 to be more transparent with investors to 'set expectations" - clearly an acknowledgement that his Dec 4 letter failed at doing that properly.
4. CEO announced as 'big milestone' 200mm wafer with working modulators from a foundry. Investors had thought this already happened 9-12 months prior.
5. 10k released which adds in the 200mm language, and shows low revenues which confirms that the deal already announced last ASM was not significant, despite hopes by investors to the contrary.
6. OFC comes and the hoped for transceiver demo does not happen. Rather he announces test results which sound as though 200gpbs were achieved on foundry modulators (though the wording is not clear). CEO makes off-cuff comment about thousands of modulators without discussing true status - ie hurdles re yields, reliability, scalability. Andy B does NOT confirm polymers are 'ready' despite Dr Lebby saying months ago he needed to 'update his slide'. Engineering team does show some kind of demo showing good signal strength but it's not a transceiver demo.
7. April: Ceo announces demo to be shown at ASM, and says in interview will be showing the demo to prospective clients over the next 6 months. This imo is an obvious 'tell' and a fulfillment of his intention to lower shareholder expectations - so that ASM doesn't arrive with expectations for a deal.. This will likely be dead money for months on end here IMO.
8.Late April, CEO meets with some shareholders in Europe. Stock falls immediately same day and in days after to new lows in the mid $3 area, while the market rises strongly. Lead guys put together 'secret' email indicating various positive messages from Dr Lebby - the main one being more positive statements lacking clarity re the true status of the technology, and the NEW explanation for the big miss in the Dec 4 letter that the company is now focusing on large companies, the addition of 2 new large ones since OFC - once again leading investors to expect a 'deal any day' in contrast to Dr Lebby's own 'funnel' slide from 2023 ASM saying start to finish takes 18 months. The Lightwave part-time salesmen reportedly told someone they now have tripled the NDAs from a few years ago, implying 40 have been signed. The faithful believe that is signifcant. The careful packaging of this new narrative out of the Eurpoean meeing in Antwerp helps stabilize the stock slightly.
9. Late April, for the first time an industry analyst, Mark Lutkowitz, posts on Linked-in some positive statements about Dr Lebby which matter-of-factly point out Dr Lebby's positioning in the industry as something he has leveraged to help market/argue for Lightwave's polymer solution to provide credibility. Mark's post received 18 reactions within hours. Mark further stated that he has not heard anything to suggest Lightwave's is 'offering something subtantial', with industry input being his criteria. This is as opposed to TFLN, which he has received significant feedback about. He posts that he believes there likely will be only one winner due to the large industry investment required and that it is likely to be TFLN. Several shareholder immediately try to discredit Mark's credibility.
Newcomers, don't be foolish. The above is entirely consistent with the pattern seen here over and over.
TRUTH..
..
Marco such nonsense. “I have you on ignore”. I don't believe you - we were having a conversation and i immediately called you out on your claim.
It took 16 callouts for you to finally respond. I was wondering when you finally.couldn’t take it. For Shame.
And in your respons you conveniently ignored my evidence which shows you are insincere. Asm 2021 is the evidence- as im sure you well know but you ignored it. For shame.
You may be able to hoodwink some here but i see through the bs from you and have for a long time. Trials in 2021 with next step being manufacturing and “partnering for mass commercialization”. You ignore all that and point to 2022 which was his backpedaling year but the damage was done in 2021. And you know it. Shame on you.
Kcc points out the cleverness of Dr Lebby in 2021 with using the word “allow” when talking about big partnerships at least but the stock price showed what everyone thought. Nobody can defend the slide which literally has the word commercialization placed at what appears to be mid 2021!!
I’ve never been paid to post and am not and never have been short. If i were you can bet someone else would have popped up to counter all of protos misleading posts once i got restricted . Never happened. Lucky for the stock price,
I also never said he”promised deals”. Another attempt to smear me. Shame on you.
Truth
Marco - 16th time. NEWCOMERS: here's 50 reasons the stock is weak and 33 questions that longs have very few good answers to.
First, to catch up on events occurring after the Red Flags sticky post at the top of the posts here which was published last August. That 'sticky' should at the least help you see the scope of the problem with this company.
1. Shareholders anticipate all reliability information to be released at ECOC (fall 2023), after which there will be no further delays in deal-making and 'floodgates' to open. ECOC resulted in select information being shared, and a report clearly indicating that for the first time companies were starting to want to learn more about what Lightwave offers. This was in contrast to the "Tier1s pushing the company' narrative now several years old.
2. Dec 4: CEO releases very positive shareholder letter when the stock is bleeding badly, which suggests strongly deals within a month or two. Tomorow it will be 5 months and still no deal.
3. Late February: CEO explains lack of deals due to requests for more evidence of reliability and scalability. CEO sets new goals for 2024 to be more transparent with investors to 'set expectations" - clearly an acknowledgement that his Dec 4 letter failed at doing that properly.
4. CEO announced as 'big milestone' 200mm wafer with working modulators from a foundry. Investors had thought this already happened 9-12 months prior.
5. 10k released which adds in the 200mm language, and shows low revenues which confirms that the deal already announced last ASM was not significant, despite hopes by investors to the contrary.
6. OFC comes and the hoped for transceiver demo does not happen. Rather he announces test results which sound as though 200gpbs were achieved on foundry modulators (though the wording is not clear). CEO makes off-cuff comment about thousands of modulators without discussing true status - ie hurdles re yields, reliability, scalability. Andy B does NOT confirm polymers are 'ready' despite Dr Lebby saying months ago he needed to 'update his slide'. Engineering team does show some kind of demo showing good signal strength but it's not a transceiver demo.
7. April: Ceo announces demo to be shown at ASM, and says in interview will be showing the demo to prospective clients over the next 6 months. This imo is an obvious 'tell' and a fulfillment of his intention to lower shareholder expectations - so that ASM doesn't arrive with expectations for a deal.
8.Late April, CEO meets with some shareholders in Europe. Stock falls immediately same day and in days after to new lows in the mid $3 area, while the market rises strongly. Lead guys put together 'secret' email indicating various positive messages from Dr Lebby - the main one being more positive statements lacking clarity re the true status of the technology, and the NEW explanation for the big miss in the Dec 4 letter that the company is now focusing on large companies, the addition of 2 new large ones since OFC - once again leading investors to expect a 'deal any day' in contrast to Dr Lebby's own 'funnel' slide from 2023 ASM saying start to finish takes 18 months. The Lightwave part-time salesmen reportedly told someone they now have tripled the NDAs from a few years ago, implying 40 have been signed. The faithful believe that is signifcant. The careful packaging of this new narrative out of the Eurpoean meeing in Antwerp helps stabilize the stock slightly.
9. Late April, for the first time an industry analyst, Mark Lutkowitz, posts on Linked-in some positive statements about Dr Lebby which matter-of-factly point out Dr Lebby's positioning in the industry as something he has leveraged to help market/argue for Lightwave's polymer solution to provide credibility. Mark's post received 18 reactions within hours. Mark further stated that he has not heard anything to suggest Lightwave's is 'offering something subtantial', with industry input being his criteria. This is as opposed to TFLN, which he has received significant feedback about. He posts that he believes there likely will be only one winner due to the large industry investment required and that it is likely to be TFLN. Several shareholder immediately try to discredit Mark's credibility.
Newcomers, don't be foolish. The above is entirely consistent with the pattern seen in the Top Three Red Flags sticky post, and also as shown in the following:
HERE ARE THE 50 REASONS THE STOCK IS LOW: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174225579
HERE ARE 33 QUESTIONS LONGS JUST DON'T HAVE MANY GOOD ANSWERS FOR: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174232127
The case against Lightwave is very strong. Not that they are a complete scam, but that anything they say with regard to timeline to commercialization can be trusted. Marco, a trusted poster here, repeatedly wrote that Dr Lebby's timeline all along has been 2024-2025. I went back and proved that in ASM 2021 - while a timeline was not explicitly stated,there was a slide showing 2019-->2020-->2021-->COMMERCIALIZATION Polymer Plus as clear day and the entire tone of the presentations implied that since the company had moved into foundries they would be announcing major commercial deals by late 2021- early 2022. This enabled the stock to organically uplist to Nasdaq, Dr Lebby and Marcelli to each be awarded $2.6m in cash bonuses,and every director to sell options for profits (several in the millions of dollars) by early 2022.
Nobody who is unbiased can watch minutes 6-20 in that presentation and think that Dr Lebby was selling a 3-5 year timeline. Marco has been called out 16 times now to acknowledge his error in judgement. Silence. Others have been challenged to refute this interpretation of ASM 2021, and no long has tried to refute it. They just can't. But they still trust Dr Lebby and his timeliness...
So many facts, but one has to be willing to see them...newcomer maybe they really do have something but with this company the devil is always in the lack of details...
..
Mark L's TFLN insights, and Walter's sharing
At the OFC Mark L presented info heavily focused on the demand side regarding TFLN from some 15+ large companies, including the five most prominent hyperscalers in the world and Nvidia, along with insights on Cisco Systems, Ciena, Arista, Juniper, Marvell, and others.
He also discussed eight TFLN suppliers throughout the world, and that number has increased since then.
His presentation pointed out that there is much work to be done with TFLN - scalability/manufacturing has not been forthcoming, so that ability is still suspect - and that InP is still the predominant solution and will be for a while. He said that the bigger opportunity is NOT with 200G/lane, but is with 400G/lane.
To be sure, the jury is out on whether TFLN will deliver but the INDUSTRY seems to be very familiar with this material, which is why Mark knows this much information.
IN CONTRAST, the INDUSTRY has provided little to no information or insights about perkamine other than the widely known concern re reliability of polymers in general. He has nearly ZERO insights from any of the companies named and we just saw in the last Optica meeting that Andy B seems to have very little knowledge or enthusiasm for polymers as compared with TFLN.
It is telling that there is really only Lightwave and NLM (others?) supplying polymers for the industry. While perkamine is proprietary it is totally illogical that a market with any promise of taking off has so little participation. There is a relatively high number of Chinese suppliers in the TFLN market that offers the promise of penetration into the attractive western markets -- are there any Chinese polymer suppliers? If there is a market for polymers like perkamine, there will be other players. That's how it works. That's what happened with TFLN. Transceivers are currently in a boom period, I understand. There is plenty of research going on around the world so if there were real expectations of perkamine taking off there should have been announcements of new polymer players at OFC 2024. But almost nobody is talking about it and it seems to me that's because nobody in the industry sees much potential.
AimlessBlade I can tell you that I believe Mark is a straight shooter. He just doesn't see any reason to get excited about what Lightwave is doing.
He has gotten the feedback from the biggest companies in the world and I believe that if they had given him something positive about Lightwave he would be more generous. I think his position is that there is no way in the world the whole industry is in the dark about something great going on at Lightwave. No way. Put that together with the ongoing carrot dangling farces and I refuse to give Lightwave the benefit of the doubt. This company stinks imo. See you at year end. So far my predictions are being met quite closely.
TO WALTER:
First Walter, your sharing is the right thing to do. Thanks. If I were a newcomer and saw your list I would be excited by it.
As an informed investor who has done plenty of research there are only a couple of points that are specific enough to make me take notice. Particularly re the technology status, which does sound good (though plenty is not being addressed still)
The puzzling thing is if they revealed anything that was meaningful and has yet to be presented publicly that would be an SEC violation, So I have to wonder if a couple of the items were 'gleaned' as opposed to specifically stated.
In any case the tells are clear to me about this company: Regardless of the true current status, it dangles carrots year after year in order to keep their doors open. As such, their timeliness have no credibility and I'm going with the obvious tells we have seen so far this year.
IMO the last 3 ASMs were are grossly misleading as were the last 2 annual shareholders.
That's my evidence and no long has come close to refuting it.
The best I can give Dr Lebby is that he feels that carrot dangling is ok and is justified by the potential success they may have someday. I refuse to be dangled by this company.
Newcomers, when all you have is hope and prayers...you have a stock on shaky ground as we descend toward ASM 2024.
These ASMs are each becoming notable for their obvious deceptions.
Not a single long has risen to my challenge of explaining minutes 6-20 of the ASM 2021.
Lewrock refused. KCC refused. Marco refused..
How can ANYONE believe anything Dr Lebby says anymore?
I came here after that ASM but had watched it a few times with specific purposes in mind.
When I rewatched recently it to check Marco's ongoing narrative that Dr Lebby had a long term time frame in mind all along - calling Marco out now for the 15th time -
I was SHOCKED at how deceptive the ASM 2021 messaging was. From the "roadmap guru".
Nasdaq, top 2 $5.2m richer, and directors selling for millions..and what did shareholders get?
Here it is once again:
Volume hasn't scared me off - too low. Willing to wait another 30 days if need be, actually. 30 days for 400%? hmm...
40 NDAs: I GOT A SAMPLE!, and NLM saying samples of polymer product in 2026 comment:
NLM said POLYMERS - not "NLM Polymers" as you just wrote - would not be available until 2026 for sampling, and volume not until 2027-2028. That's how I took it. Maybe he was referring to NLM Polymers, but he was answering the general question about polymers.
Andy said he had no idea when....hmmm why would he say that when Dr Lebby supposedly has said Andy needs to "update his slide" many months ago? IF my notes are right Andy just said the customers are "quite risk averse" and they want to stay with mature, stable technologies. No big surprise there...all indications to me (and we saw this as clear as a bell at ECOC 2023) is that the big wigs are just starting to even consider something like what Lightwave offers.."interest in learning"..Folks, this just seems worlds away still..and the tells from Dr Lebby after his Dec 4 "deals real soon" fiasco are quite clear (reliability and scalabilty concerns, will be demoing their tech (but no product) for the next 6 months).... This is DEAD MONEY FOR QUITE A WHILE at best, I believe.
It's so freakin obvious that there are significant technological barriers at this point (ie no product demo even!) that I'm embarrassed for all of you longs.
Your complaint about Mark calling out Lebby on LinkedIn when Lebby wasn't going to be in the meeting is absurd. Atkeim is on the meeting - and Lebby is on Linkedin. Mark L, who Pozo just said is "very respected" simply is voicing what he is SEEING IN THE INDUSTRY. He is NOT SEEING anything to suggest near term commercialization by Lightwave. Why should anyone fault him for that?
Your accusation that Mark is being PAID to promote TFLN is also absurd.
You complained after my last post that I didn't answer you re the technology of Lightwave vs TFLN. I did. The basic answer is that TFLN's capabilities are far more known within the industry than Lightwave's, and the INDUSTRY gets to decide. Dr Lebby said the industry has issues with reliability of Lightwave's polymers. That's the bottom line. It's up to Lightwave to prove everyone wrong.
The big defense is NDA secrecy. So, Lightwave says they have 40 NDAs? Someone sent me a copy of one:
"All information I'm about to be shown by Lightwave Logic is strictly confidential and I agree I will never discuss anything pertaining to it with anyone other than authorized individuals as defined by Lightwave. I understand that if I fail to follow these guidelines my butt is on the line.
Signed,
My Butt "
(satire)
More Belgiums I honest don't know. I tried to find out - very politely and was not replied to.
haha, maybe something like that 4/30 was not exactly a strict deadline. It was a date they were going to "work toward" but they warned us they may need another 30 days for the real estate. Frustrating no matter how we view it, but too much potential upside for me to give up ..
MTag is still prominent on their webpage.. anyone notice their webpages appear to have the same designer? Thoughts on that?
Was the YouTube video a pump with legs or just a pump to get the price up? Haven't seen it.
From 4/2 PR: "Both parties have agreed to work towards an April 30, 2024 closing date, but have incorporated an additional 30-day extension to support the real estate transfer, if needed."
update needed
"TFLN isn't ready and Perkamine is better" is the basic narative response to Mark which follows the "announcement of a TIer1 partner -any day" following Antwerp.
The latter is just the same carrot they have dangled for 2 years now (really since ASM 2021)..
If the above are really true, then why does the industry favor TFLN? A former employee wrote of Hyperlight:
Mark L's BIG POST, Lewrock, Microchips, KCC's validations:
Saving the best for last (Mark's post), I'll start with the latest 'discussion' stemming from my challenges to longs, and Lewrock in particular, re the company's credibility being compromised - and the evidence being the primary messages in each of the last 3 ASMs:
LEWROCK, your refusal to even acknowledge - much less try to counter - my points about each of the last 3 ASMs being great examples of intentional misguidance by a CEO who knew he was misleading investors by both what he said and what he didn't say, should speak volumes to newcomers.
It's sad really. I won't comment on your claim re the Tier1s further until you give your opinion about what I wrote. Why should I when you've already (and recently) demonstrated a tremendous lack of judgement by implying Vanguard was buying for profit at $18?
MICROCHIPS, nice try, but I don't consider the 'signs of progress' to point to a big picture at all. Rather I see the continued OBFUSCATION regarding their progress to point to the true big picture:
What obfuscation? How about the things he could address but doesn't?:
How many wafers has the company received?
How good are yields?
What reliability tests remain and when will you have results for those?
How many devices have been made to standards in foundries?
What scalability tests remain and when will you have results?
When will a PIC be made?
How many foundries are you now working with each on Slot, and Plus?
When will a single foundry validate your tech 'progress' as being complete with a PDK?
When will a transceiver company finally agree to produce a demo?
A former employee recently wrote that shareholders don't ask the hard questions at the ASMs. With few exceptions that is dead on.
The BIG PICTURE, microchips, is very clear to me and while I never thought I'd stick around for nearly 2 full years following this so closely, EVERY STEP of the way has validated the BIG PICTURE which is this: The company is a carrot dangler in order to keep the doors open.
KCC, I believe you are being honest. Just overly optimistic and trusting. I sent you an email btw. check it out.
KCC, you may view your list of 10 external validations as a great counter to what Mark L posted yesterday, but I really don't see why you would feel this way. And then for you to say the things you said to discredit him....anyone can check out his Linkedin, background, reviews, publications and find out. When I do that I see someone with deep connections who is upfront but does look for solid evidence before he gets too excited about new ideas/changes in the industry. that sounds pretty wise to me for an analyst, and yes that may cause some to not care for his style, but - He's been around. He's seen how the industry works.
I'm curious KCC which of your top 10 you see as the most important? Your #1 and #6 sound the most promising to me on the surface, but AIM Photonics (the foundry planning to offer polymers in the future) is a govt-led initiative, so would think that's going to move at a pretty slow pace. Wouldn't you have rather someone like Intel have said that instead of an entity that appears more geared toward helping startups/research companies? Your NVIDIA comment sounds good but "new materials" could just as easily be TFLN. What exactly do you find so compelling in your list?
THE BIG MARK LUTKOWITZ POST:
WOW FOLKS - we FINALLY have some input from an analyst!!!. What happens? People here jump all over him - accusing him of 'odd behavior', being a 'black sheep', etc.
How about addressing the actual POINTS that he made?
Mark's post made several points, that I think make sense from an analyst perspective, but more importantly should be taken seriously due to his connections with all kinds of people in the industry, including the hyperscalers -- has anyone noticed he has some 8,900 followers (as opposed to 3,100 for Dr Lebby)? The man's experience is deep, with over 60 publications on the industry.
Did anyone also notice several Lightwave employees - including the director of reliability - gave his post a 'Like'? His post had 18 Likes 4 hours after it was done (when I first saw it, thanks to Carlin)
IT sounds to me that all Mark is looking for is some compelling evidence - and despite possibly seeing the demo (per one of the comments), he isn't convinced yet.
Here's the meat of his post re Lightwave's prospects:
1. External validation from an authoritative source:
Lewrock and Jeunke, most people will be very cautious in the future if they feel they have been misled by someone in the past. I find it hard to understand how Jeunkie gets excited about a gleam in Dr Lebby's eye, or Lewrock takes the "working with" Tier1s as anything other than as an exaggeration on par with prior exaggerations about potential relationships. How can you guys be excited after being so badly misled for 3 years in a row?
"Oh, yes there have been some delays, but I still BELIEVE." Is THAT your position? Of is it "this time it will be different?". Have you guys really looked at the FACTS? I ask because they really are DEVASTATING. And incredibly insulting to the shareholders.
But you both just seem to be able to look past it. Are you being honest with yourselves?
Lewrock and Jeunke: Can either of you really come up with good answers to the following?
1. ASM 2021: How can you have faith in a man who knowingly led everyone to expect commercialization that year, and a large announcement that year, only to instead take a huge bonus while the price was cut in half when directors sold their options for millions, and shareholders were wondering where the big deal was? Proof? Major price fall at end 2021 when directors sold, early 2022.
2. ASM 2022: How can you have faith in a man who knowingly led everyone to expect final PDK 'results' at year end, only to end up revealing - at year end - that there are 2 parts - a front and a back end - and that they had a hell of a lot of work left to do on the back end? Proof? Dramatic fall after Dec 19 shareholder letter.
3. ASM 2023: How can you have faith in a man who knowingly led everyone to expect a foundry deal any day since they had "commercial acceptance", while hiding the fact that it was a deal that had nothing to do with their foundry work, and that they hadn't even gotten a single 200mm wafer back? Lewrock, this should ESPECIALLY get in your craw since you said Dr Lebby told you ALL of the foundries they were working with used 200mm, and yet not a single wafer until 6 months or more after the ASM. Proof? After initial rise the price and stock strength has been horrible ever since.
How do you answer these very basic observations which serve to undermine the credibility of the messaging by the man in charge?
For newcomers, I've recently posted 50 reasons the stock is low, and 33 questions longs just can't answer, but these 3 are all anyone needs to know. There is intentional obfuscation going on - dangling the carrot - so LPC can continue to fund their operations by making money off of shareholders.
Some shareholders don't understand that this company would have had to rely on toxic convertible financing and would be trading at sub penny level on the pink sheets with billions of shares and multiple reverse splits over the last 15 years if they weren't able to keep the investor base chasing one carrot after another - making them willing to buy up LPCs shares as soon as LPC could get rid of them. They only could do that because the technology was over everyone's heads. .
The stock traded at around $1 a share prior to the gigantic CARROT of 2021. The average market cap had been around $54 million (which was pretty outrageously high imo).
And now we've had 3 years of massive CARROTS with almost no further knowledge of progress because of their obfuscation (ie nobody really knows the status re reliability, scalability, reproducability), but the market cap is STILL about 9 times that average level prior to the farce of 2021! The price today is 9x higher than it should be ONLY because of shareholders like Lewrock and Jeunke who continue to get excited despite the obvious signs of deception by management.
The stock is incredibly over-priced given the lack of transparency about where things stand.
Again, I ask both of you Lewrock and Jeunke - how in the world do you rationalize the obvious away?
A former employee, an engineer and an industry expert - sounds like the start of a bad joke, doesn't it ?
I wish it was They have all said the same thing within the last month:
Reproducibility, scalability, reliability all need to be proven and haven't been. One source said despite scalability issues Hyperlight is quite a ways ahead with what they have shown the industry.
But those people weren't even necessary: There have been so many clear indicators.
Did anyone read the list of 50 reasons I gave? 50. Not 3 or 4 or even a dozen. But 50.
Here they are again: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174225579
Call out Marco now for the 12 time? Why bother? Intellectual integrity? hmmm....
The sad thing is this isn't a dip before ASM imo. It's a direct response to a loss of credibility and very realistic beliefs that the company is not going to deliver because there are too many problems. Trading volume has been UP after Antwerp. The market knows. "Under Construction". Should have been their motto 20 years ago.
I and others have warned over and over - mainly for the Newcomers to not be duped, but longs can decide to listen too.
Some will hold on until the bitter end. I feel sorry because that's not only a big financial hit but a huge psychological hit. Please at least be diversified. Even KCC has diversified some.
Re the roadmap: Dr Lebby is a promotor. He promotes himself and I've been told the industry is somewhat surprised at the positions he has carved out..but they don't pay that much attention to his polymer claims..maybe a teeny bit more..but still waiting...Anyway, he didn't author those chapters. Some 30 (I didn't count) contributors and he just helped put it together. That's what he does. He put patents together for Motorolla. He's good at it. He's also very good at dangling carrots.
TRUTH
..
HERE'S WHAT THE BELIEVERS DON'T UNDERSTAND AND STRUGGLE TO EVEN FATHOM AS POSSIBLE:
First: Instead of just newcomers, I'm going to address ALL readers of this post to challenge themselves to be as unbiased as possible, as I do believe the worst is yet to come and it could get very ugly. I hope those who typically ignore my warnings somehow find these words before it is too late. I'm probably nearing the end of doing this as I actually feel sorry for those that don't listen. If you could just put aside your assumptions about me, and pretend this was written by a trusted friend, you might save yourself a lot of grief.
Try to fathom these realities:
Dr Lebby KNEW at ASM 2021 that they were nowhere near to commercialization, but he led investors to think it was happening in a big way that year, and he, Marcelli, and ALL the directors greatly profited while investors were left thinking a massive deal could happen any day.
Dr Lebby KNEW at ASM 2022 that they were nowhere close to having a complete PDK at a single foundry, but because he said nothing distinguishing between front and back-end, he led investors to think that multiple PDKs would be completed and probably would result in a joint foundry partnership announcement by the end of the calendar year.
Dr Lebby KNEW at ASM 2023 that they were nowhere close to having a deal from foundry work because he knew they STILL hadn't gotten anyone to fabricate a successfully poled 200mm wafer, but he led investors to think that had been done long ago and that all that was left was running reliability tests on the resulting perk-based modulators.
You now have 3 years in a row of EVIDENCE that what I'm saying about credibility is not conjecture or "twisting" of information and is straight-forward FACT. Anyone can review those ASMs to fact check the above. But for some, it's still not enough.
That is why some investors perhaps shouldn't look Dr Lebby in the eyes, as they tend to get dazzled. The best con men are really good at it. He's likable. He's authoritative. He's got that great British accent, and the quiet confidence. And with his knowledge he can talk circles around any of us. So, if his allegiance to shareholders is compromised in any way, the in-person test may not be a good idea because the smiles and non-answers that sound good don't tell us anything and may only serve to lead one on in a "confidence man" deal. As I said recently this skeptical view goes beyond this board and into the industry more than you might imagine. Do your own DD if you don't believe it.
The most recent Antwerp meeting just serves to illustrate this problem. He can say things like "everything is ready" on one hand and "PICs are under construction" on the other, and then laymen try to interpret and botch it up. This is why secret meetings and emails are a really bad idea. They contribute to confusion and distrust within the investment community. More importantly, they are a waste of time because anything that could affect the share price (which includes non-verbal cues) REQUIRES public disclosure in a filing or PR or social media. Since that didn't happen, he either violated the law, or just used his "confidence man" persona to create more confusion. These meetings should NEVER take place with a legitimate publicly traded company. The ASM is more than enough.
Even if you still just can't bring yourself to face the above facts, at least see the most recent TELLs that can't be disputed which suggest they are either falling behind or are not near as close as hoped:
1. The top 2 only received 1/3 of their target bonuses in 2023. With how well their directors get treated, you KNOW things were pretty bad when that happens.
2. Other companies are already in the marketplace for 800gpbs (Marvel, NVIDIA), and OpenLight showing near 400gpbs for crystals (ie there may be no need for EOP).
3. 6 months of demos that aren't even a product is a TELL that after all of this time not even one transceiver company is excited enough to make a move on creating even an initial demo.
4. New Tier1s is a TELL by his own words: Any new Tier1s they may be talking to is another 18 months to deal fruition based on his funnel slide...maybe far longer, and that's if it is even successful: when showing that slide he stated he started the process not 18 months prior but in 2017 which at the time was over 5 years prior.
MrLWLG101 - is actually on point about one thing when he asks:
BUT WHAT ABOUT ALL OF THE NEW HIRES????
If the truth be told that probably is the MAIN thing longs are holding to as tangible evidence at this point.
I think the new hires IS a good thing, but it mainly serves 2 purposes: First, to create more materials for the Polariton agreement, which is not going to be ubiquitous at any near date: Plasmonics is still far off. And second, to try and satisfy the testing requirements. Obviously, the testing required for reliability must be extensive. How much we still are not being told.
As such, while it is a step forward in certain respects, it just doesn't mean they are on the verge of commercialization. We don't know what all they are testing, how much more testing will be needed, or if the industry will even care once it is done. We DO know that the $5m or so was easily covered by their $26m of cach from LPC stock sales to investors, so why not? : they expanded because they could and because it was needed as a NEXT STEP. But that's all anyone really can say at this point because nobody knows how many steps there are to the top of the winding staircase.
SO anyone hanging their hat on the new hires while completely rationalizing away the continuous misguidance and/or ambiguous guidance that unfortunately has DEFINED Lightwave Logic since they first went public is not doing themselves a favor and they will continue to be perplexed when the market does not validate their own views and convictions. The only solution for those people is to face the reality that I've tried to help uncover so they can then recalibrate their own expectations to something more realistic.
I sincerely wish longs Good Fortune Someday (hint?), because I think they will need it if they don't recalibrate, and soon.
And to any newcomers reading this - know that there is a long story here that, while certainly interesting, is not pretty so be informed before you let the temptation of "low" relative price keep you from thinking it can't go far lower than it already has. This still trades about 9x higher than its historical market cap and yet shareholders imo are almost as in the dark overall under Dr Lebby as they have always been under the 4 preceding CEOs.
Disclaimer: All of the above are my opinions of the reality. Do your own DD.
NRDC2's "MYSTERY", SATIRE, TRAINWRECK, & KCC's BLAST FROM THE PAST:
SATIRE: First, let's lighten the mood:
Lebby to Marcelli before Antwerk: "Hey Jim what can I tell the to keep them excited? I've been trying to let them know this it taking longer but I don't want to face an angry crowd"
Marcelli: "Just say Tier1 a whole bunch of times and let them know we have talked with -- I'm mean are working with - them and totally focused on that. That should hold them over."
Lebby: "But what if someone brings up the bonus miss last year and whether it is an even bigger tell than my 6 months guidance?"
Marcelli: "Damn it, I still can't believe Bucci and Leonberger did that after all we did for them in 2021!. Busts my chops -- THE FCKRS! Don't worry Michael. Just keep saying Tier1 and don't forget to smile and put up the jigglies. You work on the gang there and I'll work on the gang here..saw a beaut in Malibu and I gots to have it! "
Next, Nrdc2's mystery. Nrdc2, you wrote:
thank you Dave for replying.
homebrew I can't pm anymore. I removed my subscription since my abilites were limited.
To answer you - all of my (all polite) attempts to converse (even my initial one) received no reply - also to my surprise - so I have given up. It feels personal. And I don’t understand it.
I feel like I have something valuable to offer on that board, but it has become nearly impossible to do so
Hi, can I completely close my account - not quite sure what that means - and open a new account in order to post without restrictions? I would not have 2 accounts, and I would lose whatever benefits - reputation, followers, etc.. that I had with the old account so it is not as though I'm trying to get around the rules without paying a price.
All I am seeing about this in the terms of service is the following:
Lebby is viewed as a con man by a lot more people than just some on this board.
It is amazing he has weaved his way really into prominent positions within the photonics industry, but that he is tolerated and ignored by many who think he is barking up the wrong tree. Feedback from an engineer whose input I received re the wafer picture was devastating. He literally said he doesn't trust anything coming from Michael Lebby, and sees him as someone who just loves to promote himself without showing the industry what they want to see.
Skeptic reader: "What? I have found TP quite annoying but don't think he is being paid to post. Can this really be true?"
It is true. Do your own DD. It IS fascinating that Dr Lebby has reached high levels of visibility in the emerging industry given how so many appear to view him. That's probably because he is effective at pushing the photonics message in general - which benefits them, so he is tolerated.
Folks, the best CON MEN are very slick and polished, and very good at it. That's what makes them the best.
Satire:
Lebby to Marcelli before Antwerk: "Hey Jim what can I tell the to keep them excited? I've been trying to let them know this it taking longer but I don't want to face an angry crowd"
Marcellit: "Just say Tier1 a whole bunch of times and let them know we have talked with -- I'm mean are working with - them and totally focused on that. That should hold them over."
Lebby: "But what if someone brings up the bonus miss last year and whether it is an even bigger tell than my 6 months guidance?"
Marcelli: "Damn it, I still can't believe Bucci and Leonberger did that after all we did for them in 2021!. Busts my chops -- THE FCKRS! Don't worry Michael. Just keep saying Tier1 and don't forget to smile and put up the jigglies. You work on the gang there and I'll work on the gang here..saw a beaut in Malibu and I gots to have it! "
Folks, look at the EVIDENCE: It's devastating and it is staring you in the face - blatantly misleading messaging in each of the last 3 ASMs.
*ASM 2021: The 2019-->2020-->2021--> COMMERCIALISM Polymer Plus. slide at ASM 2021 along with saying they are in the Piloting phase and manufacturing is next, and that they were already working with foundries and to look for "partnering for mass commercialization" with nary a hint that it would not happen imminently. He KNEW otherwise.
*ASM 2022: Leading investors to expect complete PDKs by the end of the calendar year, only to be told later in the year that there is a whole "back-end" process that is part of the PDK that they need to work, which they are still working on to this day. He KNEW otherwise.
*ASM 2023. The "commercial acceptance deal" with a still unnamed company that was used to avoid discussing the foundry work goals they had set and even claimed 6 months prior were still "on track". Why has he STILL not named Polariton - a company supplying devices to universities, ie not real products in the marketplace? Why didn't we know about a 200mm wafer still not fabricated sucessfully? Ready for commercialization? He KNEW otherwise
What will the 2024 ASM message be ? This is how CON MEN operate. Who can dispute this?
I'm calling Marco out now for the 11th time for refusing to admit he was wrong to say Dr Lebby didn't mislead investors about the timeliness and always had 2024-2025 in mind. It doesn't look good for his credibilty,
Now, to OpenLight: GP posted their latest update which shows amazing - near 400Gpbs ability using crystals, and not EOP.
KCC responds by saying OpenLight said last fall they were "working towards" adding in EOP. The actual statement KCC made about this previously was simply that they had "discussed" polymers. Discussing and "working" aren't near the same. Saying you discussed something has little weight. Then KCC diverts to irrelevant mentioning of some other foundry that has nothing to do with OpenLight.
Folks, REAL companies are known for their actual partnerships and real achievements - like OpenLight. Look at their website and announcements. Compare to Lightwave. 40 ndas currently? If anyone really is excited about that I call the company out for violating SEC laws: You can't legally privately share anything that can affect the share price. And if it is true I'm 99% certain it isn't anything other than a paper they make everyone sign before they talk to them. No big deal..pun intended
Lastly, for those excited about "stability is not an issue", stability isn't reliability. It isn't scalability. It isn't necessarily yields, or insertion loss, etc. He dazzles with incomplete responses that the naive swallow.
If NONE of the above convinces you, consider the simplest way to see the TRUTH here:
The real questions that are simplest to answer never get answered. They don't need evasive questions in return, or "non-verbal" 'cues".
Just be straight with your own shareholders:
1. What reliability data is still being requested and when will it be available?
2. What scalability is being requested and when will it be available?
3. When do you anticipate a working demo with a transceiver company that a prospective end user can finally see and test, instead of in-house research for a transceiver company to look at over the next 5 months?
DISCLAIMER: The above are my opinions which I based on reality. Anyone is free to have a different opinion. That's what makes things interesting and hard to look away sometimes..
Chartreader, the bough is about to break imo - as you point out the charts are really precarious right now.
IMO Chart Reader, you are here at the right time - please do let us know what your take is on these charts reflecting the fundamental reality.
You say news a few times a year pushes the direction, and I wouldn't disagree although I'd say news varies by degree and theme - and that the ABSENCE of expected news takes a toll on the supply-demand equation too..
A MAJOR meeting in Antwerk just happened on Friday and as soon as the meeting was over we saw larger volume sells, and here we are seeing even more weakness Mon morning. This is after a weekend of people digesting what really was NOT said (ie of course not - SEC violation to say anything that can affect the stock price).
The few positive comments and the secret emails about this big meeting aren't fooling the market. If "on track" was said it is as meaningless as "on track" meant in the Dec '22 shareholder letter. The last bastion for longs is the upcoming ASM in one month but in their heart of hearts they know this is not going as they thought it would and many just can't figure out why. Many refuse to consider any of these damning questions as pointing to the truth about why the company continues to dangle carrots year after year: https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174232127
The price weakness is telling the real story here about both the company and investor fatigue.
Right now the undeniable theme is the that the company is coming up with one reason/excuse after another for why there has not been a commercial deal.
The 'crowd' is being extra hostile towards those that point out the basic fact that the company has yet to answer the simplest of questions that make all of the difference:
1. No PDKs still . When will the tech be considered good enough by a single 200mm foundry - and confirmed with the first complete qualified PDK that includes the full front and back end technology that incorporates what Lightwave brings to the table?
2. What reliability tests are the prospective customers saying needs to still be done - ie the 'more data' - and WHEN does the company anticipate having that data so that these customers are satisfied with reliability?
3. Scaling - what needs to be done before prospective customers are satisfied that the technology really can scale?
4. When will the company have a 4x200 PIC, and when will a transceiver company be willing to create an actual demo for prospective clients instead of the company resorting to only showing lab results that demonstrate a good signal?
Again, welcome.
Truthseekers, try to ignore this nonsense.
High volume sells after the meeting tells the real story.
Marco is now being called out for the 10th time for refusing to acknowledge that he misstated badly a critical point. He claimed that way back in 2021 Dr Lebby mentioned the 2024-2025 as the commercialization timeline.
The reality is that Dr.Lebby led shareholders to expect massive commercialization by year end 2021! This misguidance enabled he and Mr Marcelli to each take $2.6m in bonuses after the company made it to Nasdaq on these false expectations
TruthSeekers, this is the companies mode of operation. Dangle carrots. The antrwerk meeting was more the same. Winks nods have always duped the naïve here. This is going to end badly. The company continues to wink and nod.
They refused to answer the real questions which are simple to ask and simple to answer: What additional reliability data remains to be collected by lightwave? What additional work remains to prove scalability? Has any company produced a working transceiver demo yet?
Why does the company continue to mislead its own investors? We know the answer to that: they need the money to keep coming in.
It’s embarrassing to see the lack of critical thinking that continues here after year here
This email from jeunke is meaningless. If it had anything meaningful, that would be a violation of SEC rules.
Newcomers, the LATEST: Antwerp & Tier1s, PDKs, Polariton & first commercial deal real meaning
First, who am I? I'll let others speak for me:
StevenDice said this morning:
Zebra, PDKs and reliability are not "cherry picked non-events" that I have "created".
These are measurable REQUIREMENTS for commercialization.
The 10K says PDKs are still in development.
Dr Lebby himself said reliability issues are the reason commercial deals aren't happening.
Zebra you aren't being serious or honest. You asked my for evidence and I gave it to you.
If you were serious you wouldn't dismiss my in-depth reply with one sentence that is so far off anyone here can see it. Instead you would take each of my points and examine whether they are truly just "cherry-picked" from my mind and not in the "real world". You would look at how reasonable and likely each of my points are. And, you would examine the reasons I gave for longs thinking commercialization is very near, and my rebuttal to those reasons.
KCC thinks the PDKs basically done, if I read him correctly. And he minimizes the reliability concern also - preferring to call them challenges instead of issues, as though that matters.
KCC has been way too optimistic for years here. He minimizes the delays. He is averse to looking at the possibility that something is holding this up and could hold it up for another year, or maybe even forever.
I'm not averse to looking at the facts. PDK status is a fact. Reliability status is a fact. The company has said neither is ready for prime time. It's not even up for debate. THE ONLY DEBATABLE ISSUE IS JUST HOW FAR OFF THEY REALLY ARE.
That's where the big picture comes into play: Can the company's word be trusted? Are they acting in good faith?
Nrdc92, I don't know how any intelligent person such as yourself is unable to see intentional deception in the messaging over the years. I really don't. Do I need to repeat them?
How can the ASM 2021 message of 2019-->2020-->2021-->commercialization Polymer Plus and the "next step" being "partnering for mass commercialization" in retrospect have been just an honest mistake by the man who is the roadmap author?
How can the ASM 2022 message of "PDK results" by year end have unintentionally left out the entire ALD puzzle and front-end/back-end discussion?
And - dear Lord - how can the ASM 2023 message of "commercial acceptance" when he KNEW they still hadn't gotten a foundry to produce a wafer of modulators on 200mm be seen as anything other than intentional misguidance?
I really would like to know how you interpret this as just bad business.
I know that WANTING TO BELIEVE can be intoxicatingly strong, but I have always challenged this board to face reality because that's how we all make money and avoid losing it. The reality is that if they really were close to commercialization - they would make that crystal clear because these guys are world class level at raising shareholder expectations. Instead we see the opposite and because he painted himself into a corner in the Dec 4 letter he had to later admit that there are impediments to closing deals. Then with ASM 2024 only a couple of months off he tells us "6 months of demos" are coming. That folks, is what is called a "TELL".
I get lots of negative imogi's and almost no counter arguments. Almost nobody will quote me and then analyze what I've said. Even Marco, who by the way I am now calling out for 8th time as refusing to acknowledge the error of his claim that way back in 2021 Dr Lebby told us of the 2024-2025 timeline, won't quote me, but responds primarily with generalizations. At least he tries, though. This failure/reluctance to even address my points only serves to solidify in my mind the idea that there really aren't very good answers to my points and that I'm hitting the mark.
Zebra, you asked for evidence that commercialism is not near:
You said it is 'idle speculation', as though I have no reason at all for saying such a thing is a viable explanation for what we all have seen happen, and that I am just saying it because I want to, but that's not it. Maybe the following will help you see my view better:
First, I'll turn it around and put forward the evidence longs have pointing to near term commercialism:
1. Dr Lebby's reputation and credibility. This is an argument for his word being trustworthy as authoritative and with having reasonable vision -ie a reasonable timeliness for success.
2. There is a strong and growing need for lower power, higher bandwidth solutions, and Lightwave's tech addresses both of those.
3. Dr Lebby's statements that indicate or suggest that their foundry work has successfully demonstrated low power, higher bandwidth and that it is scalable at high volume, and is reliable.
4. Dr Lebby's May 2023 prediction for their modulators being in 8000 transceivers by year end 2024.
5. External validation (see KCC's post) suggesting some in the industry are expecting and anticipating a day - maybe even in the next few years - where they will use polymers. A few even indicating they believe polymer modulators may be an inevitable solution.
6. Dr Lebby's own reassurances that a deal can come any day, and in fact is overdue if one takes the Dec 4, 2023 letter at face value.
7. To our knowledge - that is, Dr Lebby has never said they don't - they have everything some foundry or transceiver company would or should want in order for them (ie the foundry and/or transceiver co) to get a piece of the big pie: the technology, the ease of integration, the patents, the resources.
Did I miss anything?
Now here are the things I would EXPECT to already have happened if commercialism were right around the corner:
1. If the manufacturing process were qualified by the foundry, I would expect the announcement of a qualified PDK for the entire process so that the industry themselves can start ordering foundry runs for tests that they need to perform. IF such tests were happening I would expect this to be a strong marketing point - and therefore publicly announced. As I understand it, high volume capability must be proven to the satisfaction of a foundry before they include new tech into a PDK (Dr Lebby said so in the ASM 2021). The 10K is not silent. It says "we are currently working to have our fabrication processes accepted into foundry PDKs (process development kits).". Their 10k has announced various completed work. But it hasn't done that with PDKs, so it seems pretty clear to me that no foundry has yet qualified a PDK for potential customer testing. No foundry has deemed Lightwave technology to be commercially viable yet.
2. If the material is reliable and not a problem, I would expect Dr Lebby to say so in no uncertain terms. Yet just 6 weeks ago he said very clearly that there is something about reliability that is not convincing enough for a potential partner to sign a deal.
3. If the timeline of PDK finalization and of convincing reliability were known to Dr Lebby to be near term, I would expect him to say so very clearly in order to to keep shareholders excited.
4. An actual transceiver demo. That would demonstrate that the transceiver partner they have been working with in some fashion is excited to ramp up production as soon as possible.
5. I would expect Dr Lebby to want respected external validation to help boost the stock price, and to reach out to make it happen.
6. I would expect the stock to reflect positive anticipation in the form of volume and price. I would expect very large volume days along with spikes in price, from the word getting out. Maybe not Andy, but someone(s) with deep pockets would be buying.
None of the above have happened. This is my evidence - measurable and expected events that have not yet occurred.
Your evidence appears to come in the form of TRUST in the words and predictions of Dr Lebby.
Which of these sounds like real evidence?
I have two big issues re your 'evidence' - ie trusting Dr Lebby's timelines:
First, recognize that he has missed them badly 3 years running:
2021 ASM - clearly the message implied was to expect partnerships for "mass commercialization" by year end 2021.
2022 ASM - the implied message was "PDK to be complete by year end". Never did he say anything about "front end" vs "back end"
2023 ASM - the message was "we are now a commercial entity". Never did he say anything about 200mm wafers still not working.
Second, recognize that in each case he led shareholders to expect something that he KNEW was not going to happen. I repeat: in each case he led shareholders to expect something that he KNEW was not going to happen. I hate to falsely accuse Dr Lebby (or anybody) but how can anyone in good conscience disagree? The company may well figure the end justifies the means, but if the means includes leading shareholders on wouldn't you want to know?
Dr Lebby imo is keenly aware of shareholder expectations. He gets the emails. He meets with shareholders. He's a communicator. He gives presentations. He is an expert witness in trials. He knows how to communicate! The fact that he knows what shareholders want but STILL tells them things to keep excitement going while knowing they might lose excitement if he told them the whole truth should be a HUGE part of the assessment one has of his credibility at this point in time.
And since there are all kinds of things he COULD be telling both the industry and us shareholders about like reliability, scalability, yields, customer trials, foundry involvement, etc.., without revealing a single name or violating NDA agreements, but he isn't, that further suggests there are plenty of obstacles that remain.
In my passion I've done a few things I regret and I apologize for the overstepping. And for the times I came across in a condescending way. Yes, I've wanted a lower price but I thought it was deserved and I've always been true to what I think about the company. I used to kind of get my hopes up but I've become jaded from what looks to me to just be an ongoing pattern of obfuscation and really shameless leading on of shareholders. While others are taking a few mildly encouraging things as some kind of amazing confirmation of their grand view of the big picture, the more I've learned the more it has confirmed for me that the company intentionally hides reality from shareholders, that their time is running out, and that a trainwreck may be fast approaching. But I can't look away after all this time. Eyes open.
Good luck.
Newcomers, the Company deliberately keeps EVERYONE in the dark because they aren't anywhere close to commercialization..certainly a viable explanation..
GP may well be right: The industry doesn't want what Lightwave says they can do. The industry is using their own 800gpbs and seems fine with that. So while Lightwave tinkers around with getting 800gpbs they miss the opportunity. The industry always seems to be one step ahead
The sentiment of longs is now: "As long as they are progressing and still on the forefront"
The problem with that is that there is no evidence that they really are "on the forefront", or that they have EVER been on the forefront.
YES, they are attempting to be on the forefront but world records with plasmonics is not a good sign of being "on the forefront". Ok, what about their polymer modulators on 200mm? That's better, but the problem is the company doesn't tell where that really stands...
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They make it SOUND LIKE there is nothing more to prove re reliability, but they don't explain what they mean when they say customers want to see more reliability!
They make it SOUND LIKE it is scaleable but they don't really want to talk about that either: Are they "doing multiple runs" to prove it, or are they still trying to get their yields to be good enough to matter to anyone?
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A REAL EYE OPENER is the ASM 2021 video. I'll bet any honest long that watches from minutes 6-20 has got to be angry . here you go again:
Today's PIC conference, being "on track", and Grifting
2 presentations today:
PHIX - Lightwave's packager, POET, and Lightwave in same room with Pozo is certainly interesting, as would be Dr Lebb's talk in the afternoon. Would love to hear him say directly that the testing at 200gpbs was done on the actual/same modulators made on 200mm in the foundries. That would put to rest doubts from the ambiguity in the wording which imo still leave the possibility they tests were done on their own in-lab devices that were modeled after the foundry devices (ie "based on a design", "leveraging", "representing", etc.). It would also shoot down the argument that they changed the wording from "are implementing" to "are planning to implement" in foundries because they hadn't done 4 channel for 200gbps in a foundry.
Re being "on track". KCC says the only thing that matters is whether they are "on track" to create a module with a transceiver company this year.
I see two problems with that:
First, 8,000 units of sales was projected, so just having a module in the lab is a far cry from achieving their sales goal.
Second, if Walter asks Dr Lebby that question, and Dr Lebby says "yes, we are on track for that", it WON'T MEAN SQUAT because he said they were "on track" to meet all of their goals in the Dec 19, 2022 letter, but they ended up not meeting these goals:
Dr Lebby laid out these goals during ASM 2022 for the next 12 months:
1. Polymer Plus Prototypes -> Beta/Qualification plan
2. Polymer Slot Prototypes -> Beta/Qualification plan
3. Establish deal with partner -> Announcement of partner
4. Establish deal with foundry -> Announcement of partner
5. Qualification of product -> Published data/specification
6. Licensing of polymers -> 1 licensee
7. Technology transfer -> 1 tech transfer to manufacturing
How many of those above goals they were 'on track' for were met? We know several weren't DESPITE the fact that he refused to go over them at the ASM, just as we may also KNOW by year end they didn't complete a transceiver module. Time will tell, but history repeats itself with Lightwave Logic.
This isn't me 'twisting facts'. This is me pointing out that if Dr Lebby tells Walter they are "on track" this week it will be no more credible as when he said it in Dec '22.
WHY does history repeat itself? I'm bringing out the word GRIFTER now because how else can one explain the very strong implication by Dr Lebby at ASM 2021 of massive commercialization beginning by year end 2021, which enabled he and Mr Marcelli each to take $2.6m in cash bonuses - against the "no bonus pre-revenue" prior policy, after the stock went up dramatically because shareholders were expecting a deal any day. Only AFTER they got those bonuses, AFTER Nasdaq listing was achieved, AFTER directors sold for millions, did Dr Lebby reveal timeliness (in ASM 2022) that went out further. GIven this reality I don't think anyone can be accused of stretching or going to the extreme by pointing out that this does look like grifting. How could the "roadmap guy" not have known in ASM 2021 it was going to be a multi-year process? And yet, he made investors think they would be announcing deals with their foundry partners any day.
I note for the 4th time Marco has refused to acknowledge this reality which I pointed out after he repeated the false narrative that in 2021 Dr Lebby said not to expect commercialization until 2024-2025. Hmmm.. sad, really.
Now, for the newcomers, here's a list of 50 items that are concerns anyone doing dd should have. Longs may have some decent answers for a few of them, but collectively there is a pretty consistent story here, and longs just don't have a strong or consistent response. The best they can say is Dr Lebby is "cautious" to not let the competition know what is happening, but the reality just seems to be that they don't want SHAREHOLDERS to know the reality because their survival requires happy and excited shareholders.
Yes, this company is working hard to do something very very difficult. But, have they been honest? Are they being honest now? Or are shareholders being played as fools? Judge for yourself:
*THE BIG PICTURE REALITY: While dilution hasn't been very bad at all over the years, the fact is that money to run the company is raised by selling shares to Lincoln Park - who then sells it to the market. LPC has to sell at a PROFIT or the funding will stop. That only works if shareholders have very high expectations- year after year after year - irrespective of the real situation on the ground. The company has great incentive to continue to paint a picture that is a bright as possible, even if it is unrealistic. This point just cannot be stressed enough and I think is greatly underappreciated here. ONCE AGAIN: THEIR SURVIVAL DEPENDS ON KEEPING SHAREHOLDERS EXCITED WHETHER THEY SHOULD BE OR NOT. This has always been the case, and continues to be the case as the following items make abundantly clear to those who are willing to see it. "Open eyes", indeed.
*The Dec 4 '23 annual shareholder letter announces that deals are on the near term horizon - maybe even by year end. Shareholders get very excited and are unanimous in that this must happen as it is so definitively stated. A respected shareholder here writes "You can't say what he said and not deliver within 2 months". Nothing happened: Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar and now 10 days of April have come and gone.
*After much angst the explanation came on Mar 2, 2024: Reliability and Scalability aren't acceptable enough to customers. These are the 2 main issues skeptics have repeatedly said appear unresolved and impediments to commercialization - maybe EVER. Dr Lebby said:
Did you guys not see my expose' yesterday re the ASM 2021? I suggest you read it.
Talk about a pump. And look at who benefitted:
1. Company uplists to Nasdaq
2. Top 2 get awarded $2.6m each in cash
3. Every director sells at year end, several raking in millions
At what cost? Shareholders were left wondering why there wasn't a deal at year end 2021..
The narrative that the timeline "was always" for 2024 is very misleading. Anyone who watches the 2021 ASM from the 6 to 20 min can see this. I strongly suggest all here watch that with "eyes open". There is even a slide showing "COMMERCIALIZATION Polymer Plus" right after 2021. That ASM was intentionally orchestrated to accomplish 1-3 above IMO and the ONLY way that would work is by making shareholders expect a massive deal "any day" after the ASM.
This isn't a "twisting" of the facts. The accepted narrative is very wrong. Timelines "officially" started at ASM 2022, but by then the company had accomplished their 2021 goals (ie Nasdaq, money grab).
Shareholders were played big time imo. For that reason everything should be scrutinized to the nth degree.
The latest 'news' should be viewed with extreme skepticism and here's why:
Consider this: Marco wrote:
MARCO, YOU JUST PERFECTLY ILLUSTRATED MY POINT WHEN YOU SAID THIS:
WALTER, MARCO, NEWCOMERS & 50 REASONS WHY THE STOCK IS SO WEAK.
Marco, first thanks for mostly sticking with the issues pertaining to the company in your response. You obviously took a great deal of time to address the issues, perhaps even than I did - which was about 1 hour for the initial 40 and 2 more to add on 10 more and edit for better grammar and composition
Walter, I understand your sentiments about trust but am limited with what I can say in response. I'll just say that at the time my posting was restricted it came as a shock and it did take me a couple of weeks to adjust to it. It's the new reality. Folks - only post about the company and not people and their motivations. While it may be fun to throw zingers, those kinds of posts are not helpful and really should be irrelevant anyway.
Speaking of reality - that's always been my goal here - figure out the reality of this company. That's what the list of 50 is about and that's what Marco responded to.
Marco, despite the time you took I'm not going to address all of your points because we both know it's an exercise in futility, but I will do 2 things.
First, I'll respond to one of your replies about the PDK. I said it's taken 3 years, you say 2. My main point was not about how long it would take but was about the disconnect between the expectation of shareholders and the reality on the ground. Dr Lebby never set a good expectation so quite a few shareholders thought after it was first mentioned at ASM 2021 that within 6 months (by EPIC, was the mantra) the PDK would be finished and deals would roll out - ie by calendar year end 2021 - that hope was what contributed to a massive price increase.
The reality was we finally saw on a presentation in Dec '22 with the words 'operational' and the Dec '22 shareholder letter said front-end PDKs were working, but we were still left guessing about the back end. KCC now seems to think the "back-end" is done at the foundry, and so the idea that the PDK was final by the end of Dec '22 when declared 'operational', seems even more suspect than before. And the PDK for a 200mm wafer clearly wasn't done since only recently we learned that 200mm wafers finally have come back from foundries! And, as I pointed out in the list of 50 - the 10k STILL says PDKs are being developed - STILL no confirmation of a final PDK that is qualified at even one foundry. You accuse me of twisting words and reading the most extreme interpretations into things. Does this really sounds like twisting and extreme interpretation? I don't think so. I stand by the 3 years, and counting viewpoint. While the Dec '22 letter at least split it into a "front" and "back" end for the first time, we were still left guessing about the process itself as well as where they stood on it (ie poling as part of the PDK or not?). Marco, Do you REALLY think the continued lack of clarity from Dr Lebby about the PDK process is not intentional obfuscation after all this time has passed? This leads right into the second point.
But first, a major point to be made to set everyone here - including you - straight about Dr Lebby's history of giving timelines. It all starts with his now famous (or infamous) 2021 ASM presentation that succeeding in launching the stock into the Nasdaq in only a few months time:
You keep repeating the new mantra that Dr Lebby ALWAYS had 2024 as the timeline for commercialization to begin with 2025 as the ramp-up year. You wrote: