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LWLG is about-to break below $3 and free-fall to new 52 week lows below $2.50- seems likely over the next several weeks. Weak on high volume today and IMO there's more to come.
IF you like put options this might be a good opportunity, since the CEO in Q commentary today pushed a deal out into 2025 -- very vague, when longs were hoping to high heaven for a deal this year - because the Chairman more or less PROMISED multiple deals by year end back in July in order to keep longs from giving up.
I've followed that stock VERY closely for several years now and have a good feel for it.
Longs push the 'story' hard and are effective at creating pumps but I don't think they can do it this time -- they pushed it up for recent conferences and again for this earning but now with this disclosure there is nothing to keep it up, nothing to look forward to through year end, and some potential heavy tax selling as it has had a poor performance all years. Sentiment is crumbling even among long termers so a put trade may be quick money. May want to wait for a 20 cent bounce first..
Right. We are golden. New highs Coming with news and volume five cents will look ridiculously cheap soon. The beauty of tiny floats combined with increased demand
Last-minute-waiting, but very little volume is required to move a stock with a float this small. With an IR campaign coming after the financials are released, even a moderate volume can push this up to new highs quickly.
Last chance and last post for November: Each passing day without news says all I could say and more.
My post to Lewrock on Saturday was my best shot at explaining where I think things stand and why a Tier1 deal won't be announced any time soon - much less the multiple deals mentioned both last December by Dr Lebby, and again in July by the secretive 'high executive' who KCC finally confirmed was Mr. Marcelli. Lewrock's silly one-line response to this - not even an attempt to acknowledge or rebut the many points I've made - is as validating as is the utter lack of responses to the red flags sticky post that describes the many new red flags over the last year. Not a single long can come up with a sensible response, which tells me I'm still on the right track regarding the credibility of the company's narratives on their proximity to commercialization.
Here's the post from Saturday again.
Lewrock, you appear to be making some big assumptions.
You ask (I think) why I don't focus on a 5 month delay with a transceiver announcement since they likely had a completed PIC before beginning working with a Tier1 transceiver at least 5 months ago. You wrote:
My question and beef with Lebby is that if we are working with the largest Tier 1 transceiver companies, how is that possible unless those Tier 1 companies have been provided with a completed (4x200) Packaged PIC chip. Lebby believes that it does not make good business sense to announce a completed and packaged (4x200) PIC chip at this time.
My answer is this: Tier1 'work' has been going on for not 5 months - but well over 22 months since it was first mentioned in the Dec '22 letter.We KNOW there was no PIC ready then, yet 'work' was said to be going on. So, a completed PIC is NOT a prerequisite for working with a transceiver company, as proven by this history. Why do you conclude that a PIC is ready? Is it because of the demo at OFC? I don't think that was of a 'ready' PIC. KCC certainly doesn't think it was(see below), and surely he would have no reason to not announce a completed PIC if the many in the industry were being exposed to it. Your viewpoint is puzzling to me.
You seem to have trapped yourself into a box with that kind of thinking. You do know that KCC has the view that a PIC is probably not completed and that any announcement is likely to come only after completion of a PIC - which would say that a transceiver company is NOW going to develop a transceiver with Lightwave, right? He's not ruling out your scenario but doesn't advocate it:
I'm not necessarily expecting a completed transceiver with any 'deal' that hopefully is coming before EOY. I think it is possible since LWLG's PIC has been in progress for quite some time. That would be the best news. What I think could be more likely is a partnership announcement that indicates a T1 has chosen LWLG's tech to integrate into their transceivers
SO, maybe you'd want to ask KCC what work they could do without a completed PIC. I can easily envision discussions about various aspects of the technology - maybe even drawing up some scenarios, but none of that requires dedicated resources on a full-time basis, or any actual manufacturing. And yes that could go on sporadically over years. So, when Dr Lebby says they are 'working with' and provides no more than that, I don't get too excited.
Why did you say this about Dr Lebby?:"He believes that remaining in stealth mode until he can announce a completed transceiver with a Tier 1 licensing deal will be more beneficial to Lightwave's competitive position in the long run." Has he ever said this publicly?
From what I've seen the company announces completed projects when they are completed. Can you name a single time they have held back on announcing any important technical result previously? There is a fiduciary responsibility issue. A completed PIC arguably would be such a significant development that disclosure in an 8k filing would be required imo. Plus I'm sure LPC strongly encourages it..if they are going to resort to rumors of Tier1 deals via 'high executive' phone calls, don't you think they would announce something real if it actually happened?
As for GFS as an argument against my claim of only one 200mm (or above) foundry producing poled wafers - I believe they have tested out a variety of materials, including perkanimine. But since there is no evidence of successfully poling a 200mm or 300mm wafer with GFS - it probably has not happened. Anthony Yu at GFS didn't say it has been done, and the fact that Dr Lebby literally pointed to AMF as THE foundry that has cracked the 200mm barrier with no hint of anyone else being in that same 'high volume' discussion suggests to me that no other foundry has done it - and that includes GFS..it may not be Lightwave's fault - it could be any number of other suppliers of components/designs that GFS is working with. With AMF Lightwave calls the shots. Not so with GFS..
I think it's more likely that the status is this:
1. They are still working on a 4x200 PIC probably on their own, and it isn't ready. It's very complicated.
2. They are still running tests with AMF to get the best combination of metrics and to prove consistency
3. They are still working with other foundries which probably includes GFS to succeed in those foundries as they have with AMF
4. Transceiver companies are still looking for unspecified data just as he said in ASM would be coming out in another 6+ months or so from ASM.
For these reasons I think the work with transceiver companies to date has been limited, and explains the absence of an announcement to date.
Transceivers use PICs, which are not just modulators. Modulators may be ready, but PICs do not appear to be. They have had modulators for 2 years...but no PIC yet..
Who knows why or if and when?
See KCC's post on this:
Regarding the PIC...
PIC can mean a lot of different things, but for LWLG and the 4x200G PIC...it is 'simply' a multichannel modulator that includes waveguides, splitters, couplers and not the laser. There's obviously other parts of the PIC like the polymer, electrodes, etc. Lebby got into the laser topic at the May meeting and basically said he's leaving that up to the end user. BUT...that doesn't mean LWLG hasn't been doing laser work to see what works well. Recall part of the lab expansion space was specifically to be used for laser characterization.
I'm not necessarily expecting a completed transceiver with any 'deal' that hopefully is coming before EOY. I think it is possible since LWLG's PIC has been in progress for quite some time. That would be the best news. What I think could be more likely is a partnership announcement that indicates a T1 has chosen LWLG's tech to integrate into their transceivers. Still...that would be amazing news. Generally, all of us here understand the potential. If a T1 signs up with LWLG, that means the likelihood of that potential being unlocked has become very real.
Seriously? If that what you got out of my answer, I can't help you.
Your assumptions are big and unsupported. My assumptions are small and logical based on all of the evidence known.
Is this going to be another of the 100 times I've explained in great detail why I conclude what I do and why other arguments don't cut it for me and where I ask critical questions and the only response I get is a silly one-liner?
Lewrock, you appear to be making some big assumptions.
You ask (I think) why I don't focus on a 5 month delay with a transceiver announcement since they likely had a completed PIC before beginning working with a Tier1 transceiver at least 5 months ago. You wrote:
My question and beef with Lebby is that if we are working with the largest Tier 1 transceiver companies, how is that possible unless those Tier 1 companies have been provided with a completed (4x200) Packaged PIC chip. Lebby believes that it does not make good business sense to announce a completed and packaged (4x200) PIC chip at this time.
My answer is this: Tier1 'work' has been going on for not 5 months - but well over 22 months since it was first mentioned in the Dec '22 letter.We KNOW there was no PIC ready then, yet 'work' was said to be going on. So, a completed PIC is NOT a prerequisite for working with a transceiver company, as proven by this history. Why do you conclude that a PIC is ready? Is it because of the demo at OFC? I don't think that was of a 'ready' PIC. KCC certainly doesn't think it was(see below), and surely he would have no reason to not announce a completed PIC if the many in the industry were being exposed to it. Your viewpoint is puzzling to me.
You seem to have trapped yourself into a box with that kind of thinking. You do know that KCC has the view that a PIC is probably not completed and that any announcement is likely to come only after completion of a PIC - which would say that a transceiver company is NOW going to develop a transceiver with Lightwave, right? He's not ruling out your scenario but doesn't advocate it:
I'm not necessarily expecting a completed transceiver with any 'deal' that hopefully is coming before EOY. I think it is possible since LWLG's PIC has been in progress for quite some time. That would be the best news. What I think could be more likely is a partnership announcement that indicates a T1 has chosen LWLG's tech to integrate into their transceivers
SO, maybe you'd want to ask KCC what work they could do without a completed PIC. I can easily envision discussions about various aspects of the technology - maybe even drawing up some scenarios, but none of that requires dedicated resources on a full-time basis, or any actual manufacturing. And yes that could go on sporadically over years. So, when Dr Lebby says they are 'working with' and provides no more than that, I don't get too excited.
Why did you say this about Dr Lebby?:He believes that remaining in stealth mode until he can announce a completed transceiver with a Tier 1 licensing deal will be more beneficial to Lightwave's competitive position in the long run. Has he ever said this publicly?
From what I've seen the company announces completed projects when they are completed. Can you name a single time they have held back on announcing any important technical result previously? There is a fiduciary responsibility issue. A completed PIC arguably would be such a significant development that disclosure in an 8k filing would be required imo. Plus I'm sure LPC strongly encourages it..if they are going to resort to rumors of Tier1 deals via 'high executive' phone calls, don't you think they would announce something real if it actually happened?
As for GFS as an argument against my claim of only one 200mm (or above) foundry producing poled wafers - I believe they have tested out a variety of materials, including perkanimine. But since there is no evidence of successfully poling a 200mm or 300mm wafer with GFS - it probably has not happened. Anthony Yu at GFS didn't say it has been done, and the fact that Dr Lebby literally pointed to AMF as THE foundry that has cracked the 200mm barrier with no hint of anyone else being in that same 'high volume' discussion suggests to me that no other foundry has done it - and that includes GFS..it may not be Lightwave's fault - it could be any number of other suppliers of components/designs that GFS is working with. With AMF Lightwave calls the shots. Not so with GFS..
I think it's more likely that the status is this:
1. They are still working on a 4x200 PIC probably on their own, and it isn't ready. It's very complicated.
2. They are still running tests with AMF to get the best combination of metrics and to prove consistency
3. They are still working with other foundries which probably includes GFS to succeed in those foundries as they have with AMF
4. Transceiver companies are still looking for unspecified data just as he said in ASM would be coming out in another 6+ months or so from ASM.
For these reasons I think the work with transceiver companies to date has been limited, and explains the absence of an announcement to date.
This could drop 30-40c a day as year-end approaches and people realize the July 'high executive' virtual guarantee of a more than one Tier1 deal by year end was a flat out lie designed to fool them into holding onto their shares. Every 6 months they dangle the same carrot.
Even though this is just a prediction - some would do well to consider it a warning.
Now I've reached my 5 for the day - so flame away -- just telling the truth as I see it.
Great question - why can't any other photonics-oriented foundry manufacture a wafer with Lightwave modulars on it that can successfully pole.
The answer: It must be damn hard.
It begs the question too - can AMF do it consistently? Remember too that KCC said there were some dozen different designs on the wafer he saw -- will AMF be able to pole a full wafer consistently with just one uniform design on it if they are finally able to get one that is good enough? Small changes often have big effects.
I doubt anyone wants to buy transceivers from a company that relies on only one manufacturer because only one is able to do it -- therefore no transceiver company is likely to cut a deal. That may explain the delay more than anything else. 6-9 month wait each time Lightwave's other foundries try again to get it to work on a 200mm wafer. And 6-9 months each time AMF tries a new design - even if concurrent cycles are being used - each new design takes 6-9 months,. People wonder how the company can be off by a year or more on deal estimates -- well, here's a couple of viable answers.
Re disparity between foundries - not sure why you pretend gullibility there. Remember the freakin "kitchen recipe" issue with foundries? Remember Dr Lebby saying they want a group of foundries in case several don't work out for one reason or another?
Proto is fighting hard against my claim about 200mm because he KNOWS it explains things very well.
Dr Lebby said it - he said THE foundry producing 200mm wafers is the one they named a few months prior - AMF.
It defies common sense for Dr Lebby to have made quite a big deal about having 200mm wafers earlier in the year without saying more than one foundry had done it, if that had been the case.
YOU are the one that needs to prove they have done it with more than one.
You're claim re what was seen in the lab proves nothing - those seen may ALL have been AMF since they run concurrent cycles. The comment about 3 continents may well have been true -- they may well be working with 2 other foundries that use smaller wafers.
Common sense is on my side. Off-base speculation is all you have - and is all you seem to ever have here.
I think everyone knows only one 200mm foundry has successfully poled a wafer with Lightwave's modulators on it.
Deep down - everyone who has read my position on that has to know I'm right.
It's common sense -- plus Dr Lebby virtually said so - I gave the exact quote from the Beninga interview..
What's truly sad is nobody here will say so.
The other foundries apparently are struggling to make it work on anything higher than 150mm. Dr Lebby clearly said 200mm is required for volume production -- he made quite a big deal of getting the one to work earlier this year..unfortunately have only one - and a struggling one at that - may be a big barrier to forming a Tier 1 partnership.
The signs in aggregate support a coherent picture to anyone who wanted to see them.
Individual statements have been conflicting, mixed, and confusing so yes, they have been leading shareholders on with forward looking statements.
But, the truth has been discernable for those willing..
Anyone complaining just wasn't trying to see things objectively. Many details were easy to miss, but the big ones were so big that one had to intentionally twist a false meaning out of them to retain their faith..LIke the commercial 'deal' announced on the day of ASM 2023 used to obfuscate the status with foundries.
I could list - and have listed many other signs straight from the company, but what's the point? ..
LWLG is “close on deals”. They have "calls all week discussing the deals". Just before the conversation, the executive was on a call with a "potential counterparty to a deal".
This executive acknowledged the only thing that will move the stock price at this point is closing deals.
"I am more than confident we’ll close on probably more than one Tier 1 deal this year."
Within the next month, engineering teams from three separate companies will be visiting LWLG’s facility.
When asked if the T1 announcements will have a name attached, the response was that they "would love to be able to". Based on the NDA’s, they "can’t use a counterparty’s name without its permission". “The argument they make is that they are trying to gain a competitive advantage.”
When asked directly if they are working with NVIDIA the response was, “Let’s put it this way. Anyone not trying to work with NVIDIA is a fool and I’m no fool. What’s the old saying? I can neither confirm nor deny that we are working with NVIDIA.”
“We’re working with the biggest transceiver companies in the world.”
“Amazon wants warrants from companies to sell to them. They eat their young. I said that to a guy during a meeting – you eat your young. He just smirked.”
I will not disclose the identity of this person. Do not ask. Do not assume.
KCC recently revealed it was Marcelli - which means it was nonsense. However, KCC also said 3 LWLG have said similar things (next post)
I love an underdog. Even with all the stuff I can’t stand here It only makes sense that technology using light may be able to do amazing things if it’s done right.
So I’m holding out for the possibility that they prove me wrong. I look for that evidence.
But with my disdain for management carrots I give the company very little credit because they haven’t earned it. They have earned the disrespect they get from me. And Proto’s nauseating, repetitive narratives only serve to fuel my disgust.
I feel strongly about principles, but I’m kind of a softy when it comes to people. I actually kind of like Dr. Lebby. I may end up being very forgiving if they pull this off.
Behonest and Proto: Yes, he did Proto. It was in the Benzinga interview around March 1.
An alternative is the status quo continually being improved upon. So far that seems to be working. People are incredibly myopic here. There are so many different parts to this puzzle and people somehow think modulators are the biggest piece. Why in the world would the big data centers be looking at nuclear power if little lightwave had the solution in tiny modulators??!! It’s very comical really.
I really don’t think they’re very many newbies anymore. A few hopeful bottom fishers but that’s about it probably
This is an interesting company because an argument can be made that it’s about to happen, another argument can be made that it’s very early on, another argument could be made that this is the endgame because lightwave isn’t really anywhere close yet they pretend to be. I just don’t trust the first argument because of the ongoing patterns of the company towards deception, and with a totally understandable motivation.
I tried to help people see the truth here. What’s weird is they can’t recognize my sincerity. People accuse me of twisting and half truths yet they lack any ability to make an argument for that, And I’ve been right time and again. You’d think people would recognize that the reason I’m right is not due to luck, but due to the fact that I want to know the truth.
Not a single person has even tried to tackle the new red flags post that focuses only on the last 12 months. It’s shocking what this company gets away with doing to their shareholders year after year. I truly believe that.
Dr Lebby's own words obfuscate but for those paying attention the reality comes through..
"reset expectations" "hard to predict" "THE foundry (with 200mm)" "asking for more data" "they will see in 6-9 more month" "in progress" "I THINK interest is growing" add those to the things that are NOT said that they could easily say without violating an NDA and you get a clearer picture. That's what I do - weed through the dreamy words to get to the reality.
Re your question: Not Lightwave at this time. That's all that matters to me. I'm not a long term dreamer when it comes to a company that has failed to fulfill expections they raised themselves year after year. Fool me once shame on you...fool me twice and shame on me
Dr Lebby said he wanted to reset expectations earlier this year - and he did so at ASM,
But then Marcelli couldn't take it and put out the 'same timeline' nonsense as well as the 'big rumor' about Tier1s and deals before year end to be disseminated among the believers.
Then a few weeks ago we got another big rumor 'leak' before PECC to keep up the faith through year end - prob from MZ - and a hopeful shareholder who shared his phone call notes. The 'leak' wasn't external, as it died.
Carrots as they try to get the technology to be good enough -- no PIC yet folks, and no transceiver company confirmed to be working on a demo with Lightwave.
Some maybe but when 'everybody' wants a stock it doesn't trade with such low volume.
Word had better get out BEFORE fins imo or less of a float-squeeze will happen. A compelling case can be made here, but I’d like to be able to understand the case for retiring shares before I try to pass along the information to influencers.
Sorry to be negative but ..there is no groundswell going on here that I see, but one definitely could happen if there is a concerted effort to get the word out so that big influencers have a chance to get in early
I follow and trade other stocks, but yes I see potential here, but I don’t think they are close to anything meaningful other that a preliminary type announcement.
I got kind of excited a couple weeks ago when volume and price suggested a leak, but it is now obvious there has been no leak.
One reason I post skeptical arguments is to see if anyone can rebut them effectively. That way, I can learn if my negativity has gone too far. The lack of those kind of responses tells me I’m completely on track, although I can’t discount, the fact that many just aren’t paying attention anymore. Perhaps it’s too painful..
I don’t care if you sell or not. I am curious to see if there’s going to be a major sell off at year end if no deal comes through, as quite a few shareholders have indicated they’re tired of being jerked around. Open book here. Always have been, always will be.
These "what if" games are dumb. You are operating out of the realm of reality.
The reality is staring you in the face: This company dangles carrots to make you buy shares so they can continue to develop their product year after year. The evidence is so overwhelming that I just can't wrap my mind around the blindness. It's really something. 50 questions presented by me that nobody here has the ability to provide a coherent alternative explanations for than what I've come up with: There is simply no reason to believe they aren't STILL dangling carrots while obfuscating the reality about where they stand.
What's sad is they have given enough information that people like myself who are critical thinkers can figure out that they have a ways to go. NO PIC. NO PIC. NO PIC. NO PIC! Why can't you get that? KCC has said so even.
I've done the job of interpreting both what is said and not said to help paint a more realistic picture about where they stand, and yet you dreamers reject the obvious logic behind what I present and come up with your own explanations, as well as decend into ridiculous conspiratorial thinking about the messenger. You buy the false narratives that people like Proto shove down the boards throat repeatedly and sometimes that you think the company is pushing and then you scratch your heads year after year and ask WHY DON'T THEY HAVE A DEAL? It's so blatant that it is tempting to think you are just playing some kind of game here. The fools ignore the logic.
BNCM tiny float--fins showing $20m+ revs merger coming out in a week or two...
Unlike ASII and RDAR - which so far have screwed over shareholders on dilution while announcing big mergers -- BNCM is looking fantastic and could really take off when the numbers come out. Do a little DD and see for yourself. There isn't much time left to get in 'early' in the bigger picture.
How many have have done wafer scale poling on 200mm? It appears you too are ignoring logic. If you don't know what I'm talking about - that's your loss.
The ignoring of logical arguments based on simple observation has made people here truly ignorant.. and a lot poorer.
To all: Stop being a wuss. A year ago everyone here thought at ECOC the reliability data that would be sufficient to immediately start signing deals was going to be released.
I think it was Tierprathy who said the biggest news in the company's history would be announced around that time - and that was just a reflection of the whole group who thought behind the scenes deals were being negotiated that probably just depended on the final confirmation of reliability.
Then 5 months later we found out that for the FIRST TIME 200mm wafers had been manufactured and poled successfully.
Do you not see how ignorant we shareholders really are regarding where things REALLY stand both on the technical front and the negotiation front?
IMO we are just as ignorant today: There may well be no serious negotiations going on. There may well be serious hurdles or requirements being made that the company won't meet for another year or more.
The game playing and carrot dangling by the company needs to be met with stern reactions from shareholderes who need to stop acting like wusses. This is your money at stake. Become more informed and demand what is yours to demand: an honest accounting.
It’s as if you missed everything I’ve said about this.
You act like it would not matter if only one foundry is able to make lightwave modulators on a 200 mm wafer, but then at the same time you tout their having multiple foundries.
Since I don’t believe you are ignorant, I conclude you’ve checked out. You’re on your way out. Good luck.
First, if you don't like what I have to say, just ignore it or counter it with some actual argument about what I've said and not about who I am.
One of the biggest problems has been how SLOW the foundry progress really has been. 200mm wafers were thought to be working nearly a year prior to when he said they are.
The evidence supports my claim that they have only gotten those 200mm wafers back from AMF - a struggling company financially
I believe having only one source of manufacturing - and the implication that other foundries are struggling to get it to work on 200mm wafers, is a real problem for the movers and shakers in the industry, and is likely holding up a deal with a transceiver company
Dr Lebby IMO revealed this truth in that Beninga interview:
Dr Lebby Aug 12: "
over the last three months we actually did announce that we're in a strategic relationship with a big foundry based in Singapore called AMF. And these are the folks that are doing that technology on 200mm - huge [indescipherable] type wafers
He would have mentioned others if that were the case -- not only then but in the PRs, and filings that discuss the 200mm wafers
That explains the following other comments Dr Lebby has made:
Re the rate of commercialization Dr Lebby said at the May ASM: "It's hard to predict. It's hard to predict."
Then in August he said in the Beninga interview: "From a commercialization standpoint this has been - I THINK - 2024 growing interest in our platform".
Why would he say "I THINK " unless that were simply the truth? With only one foundry making 200mm wafers - the interest is simply going to be tempered and a deal seems unlikely.
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