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From the same ONCY PR, the Response Rate was 40%, and the Clinical Benefit (SD+PR+CR) was 92%.
rjc
If the 30,000 BPA blood samples were stored in plastic containers made (in part) with BPA ...
Just a thought.
rjc
The ONCY share price reaction is not so much to the results for the treatment of squamous cell cancer of the lung, but to the more general treatment of metastatic disease. Starting with H&N (blinded) results in Sep 2012, then partially unblinded results in Dec 2012, it was seen that carbo/tax/Reolysin treatment has the potential of neoadjuvant use for metastatic disease in general. The hallmark neoadjuvant “waterfall” graphs have now started to show up to illustrate the data.
About 55% of the lung mets patients in the randomized H&N Phase III Trial had a response of greater than 20% reduction in tumor size.
Today's squamous cell lung Trial results show 55% of the patients with a best response of greater than 20% reduction in tumor size. Today’s results might be seen as a confirmation of the Randomized Phase III H&N metastatic disease results.
Of the 11 “interesting” patients today that made up the 55% with best overall % response greater than 20% … the observed shrinkage range was from about 24% to about 88%, with a median of about 68% shrinkage as the best overall response. The “about” stuff comes from me reading the values from the bar chart.
Today’s sampling is a small number (n=20) of patients, but they can arguably be part of the same group detailed in the randomized H&N Trial’s (lung mets specific) results, as BOTH these data sets are measurements of squamous cell mets at the lung.
rjc
The ONCY report offers Phase III H&N response results from a metadata snapshot of the metastatic disease group. This double blinded (but fully enrolled) randomized Trial remains blinded. Without singling out the named metastatic group it typically takes 8 weeks to get a meaningful spread in data for these H&N patients (learned from 2 Phase II trials), but I suspect that the this 6 week data (the choice at this point was 6 vs 12 week) was made to minimize a statistical hit, and was done now because a late July PFS snapshot before enrollment had completed suggested that the metastatic results could show an earlier spread.
Today's results might lead to an earlier unblinding than was previously expected.
rjc
This InvestorsHub ONCY board has the potential of taking over as the default open board for ONCY, now that the redesign of the Yahoo ONCY board has left it close to unusable … and severely annoying at best.
For those reading this post on another board, the link to the InvestorsHub ONCY board is:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/Oncolytics-Biotech-ONCY-814/
The moderator here is onco_investor, and we’ve known him for a long time.
rjc
As ants currently appear to be allowed to choose their food without restriction, I assume no FDA like governing body. Just an assumption.
rjc
"If people were insects, there would be more approved drugs on the market."
A drug (to an ant) would be in the form of a new natural mutation showing up, such as a new variety of grass that spreads widely. As ants are omnivorous, the new variety would be consumed. Because there is no ant FDA, consumption is implicit approval.
But ants rarely travel more than 800 feet from their home, so across the country, each “approval” would be a local (and different) approval; so any given new grass variety (new drug) would be approved over and over again.
With each new mutation (whether effective as a therapeutic or not) being locally approved, and with wildly large numbers of communities giving their approval, the count of approved “drugs” can’t help but be dramatically greater than the current human score.
Allowing all insects into the evaluation rather than just the ants described above, would further increase the ant/human “drug approval” ratio.
rjc
From proboscises on another board ...
"Based on SEDI (sedi.ca) the Canadian inside information site Brad has been steadily accumulating shares since 2005 and never selling. Most shares were acquired through the exercise of options and a small number through acquasition in the public market. Since 2005 Brad's shares have increased from 260,000 to the current 662,900. During this time he hasn't sold a single share."
rjc
BRAF/MEK alternative for metastatic melanoma
As cancer research progresses, more and more genetic mutations are being recognized as oncogenes, that (when activated), can activate the pathway(s) on which they are positioned, and move their cell to a cancerous state. This information is being used in two different ways. In some cases, patients are excluded from therapies where the agent doesn’t block their particular mutation (like KRas+ for NSCLC or colorectal cancer). In other cases, attempts are being made to inhibit these mutations (like EGFR+ in NSCLC, and BRAF+ and/or MEK+ in metastatic melanoma).
Where inhibitors have been designed, some (or some combinations) are demonstrating some success, but it has been observed that their efficacy can be lost lost if/when alternate activation routes are developed that no longer need the target gene to be activated in order to activate the pathway. In some cases, the inhibitor’s use can cause some toxicity.
There is another approach now being investigated in Phase II and III Trials, that has shown some success in treating any cancer with an activated KRas, NRas, EGFR, BRAF (and some other genes or receptors); and that approach is viral therapy, through which only cancerous cells are killed, and non-cancerous cells are not affected. Live viruses (either wild type or modified) are being delivered now by IV in Trials for metastatic melanoma, NSCLC, colorectal cancer, H&N, pancreatic, ovarian, sarcoma, and others. The virus can be used as part of a co-therapy approach with a platinum drug to dumb down the anti-viral immune response, and a taxane to make the entry to the tumor easier through its effect in making the vascular wall more porous. There are generally no significant side effects beyond a day or two of “pre-flu” symptoms that can be handled with Tylenol or equivalent.
One such viral therapeutic is Reolysin, from Oncolytics Biotech (ONCY). ONCY currently has a Phase II metastatic melanoma Trial in progress, and ONCY’s Investigator for their first line Phase II KRas+ NSCLC Trial will be presenting those Trial results at the “World Conference on Lung Cancer” in Amsterdam in early July.
rjc
I’ve got BCIT rated as a hold.
rjc
There’s an article out this morning on Biovex’s Oncovex, ONCY’s Reolysin, and other oncolytic viruses at:
http://biomedreports.com/2010112260394/oncolytic-viruses-are-they-the-future-of-cancer-therapy.html
rjc
ONC / ONCY Short Position ...
I have been tracking the ONC/Y short positions for a while, and am now making the TSX, NASDAQ, and combined values available here: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/4381594/Oncolytics/Short%20Position.doc
rjc
This article is not an easy read. It’s dense with information, and assumes that the reader has an existing understanding of much of the material being covered.
A very brief summary (with the risk of being misleading in its brevity) would be that in a tested cancer cell line where Avastin fails, and reovirus fails; Avastin + reovirus in combination achieves a 90% survival rate. A more detailed summary follows that was posted on April 2, 2010.
From the 850+ member, free, moderated, oncyV2 board at:
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/oncyV2/message/8172
Antiangiogenic cancer therapy with oncolytic virotherapy
Background: Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is recognized as an essential regulator of both normal and abnormal blood vessel growth. In 1993, it was shown that a monoclonal antibody that targets VEGF can produce a dramatic suppression of tumor growth, and this lead to the development of bevacizumab (Avastin; Genentech - Roche). Rather than saying anti-angiogenic therapies, or VEGF inhibitors, or VEGF165 or VEGF-A inhibitors; I'm just going to say Avastin, although there are now additional drugs (like sorafenib, and sunitinib) that function in a similar way.
In the JCI paper at
http://www.jci.org/articles/view/41431?key=1ec1c381a8cdc1939fa9 , the authors believe that they have demonstrated that Avastin, in combination with systemic delivery of oncolytic viruses under specific timing constraints, leads to substantial regression and cure of established tumors, in mice with normal immune systems. For the model used, they selected a cancer cell line (B-16 melanoma) in which reovirus is minimally therapeutic on its own. Specifically they demonstrate a significant improvement in Avastin/reovirus efficacy if a 24-48 hour pause is taken between the administration of Avastin and the subsequent administration of reovirus.
The improvement has to do with a disruption (increased permeability, or leakiness) of the endothelial layer of cells that form the inner layer of the blood vessels that supply the tumors, during the 24-48 hour wait before the reovirus is administered. It is during this wait, as the cells receive a pulse of VEGF165 from the tumor (that the Avastin was blocking), that the permeability increases. This is the leakiness effect that Brad has spoken about.
In the paper's figure 6D, it shows 0% survival at about 18 days after tumor seeding for reovirus therapy on its own, and for Sunitinib (Sutent; Pfizer) on its own. For Sunitinib + reovirus together, it shows a 65% survival at day 80. In figure 7A it shows 0% survival at about 18 days after tumor seeding for reovirus on its own, and at day 64 it shows 25% survival for Avastin alone, and 90% survival for avastin + reovirus. These are the 2 charts that are shown on page 7 of the March 2010 Oncolytics investor presentation at http://www.oncolyticsbiotech.com/OncolyticsBiotechInvestorPresentation_March11-2010.pdf
titled "Increasing Vascular Efflux Through Manipulation of VEGF Signaling". In these charts, "PBS" is a control … sterile phosphate-buffered saline.
This work is all based on a murine (mouse) model, so we shouldn't read too much into it directly. I do note though that all murine models that I have read of, involving the efficacy of reovirus against various cancers, have (so far) been highly predictive of what we have later seen in the equivalent human Trials.
This is the last paragraph of the Discussion section of the paper: "In summary, we have shown that manipulating VEGF165 signaling pathways within the tumor microenvironment enables systemic delivery of oncolytic virotherapy. Therapy is associated with increased vascular permeability to circulating virus, VEGF165-mediated induction of viral replication in and lysis of endothelial cells, and innate immune-mediated attack on virally infected vasculature. Importantly, because this combinatorial approach targets the tumor endothelium, these data have direct, wide-ranging, and immediate clinical applicability across a broad range of tumor types using reagents that are already approved for use in patients."
rjc
I am pleased to add both XQZME and qtipjoe as assistant moderators.
The last product introduction REALLY needed this technical board. Hopefully this board will be less needed this time.
rjc
I am quite familiar with Oncolytics Biotech, but I see no relationship between them and CTHP at any level (other than both being in the “cancer cure business” as you phrase it). You should ask the people at FreeRealTime why they are linking the two together if you still want to pursue any common ground that they might share.
If you wish to get additional information on Oncolytics through the boards, this one at InvestorsHub is useful, but over the last year has not had a lot of posts.
The most active board is the Yahoo! ONCY Board at http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_O/messagesview?bn=25269 It can get quite dysfunctional at times (and for extended periods), but has recently entered one of its phases that include many posts that actually have to do with ONCY rather than just deriding the other posters. When this board is working well, it is a good source of both short term and trading information.
If you are looking for information that can help with long term decisions on the company, you can try the 775+ member, free, moderated, oncyV2 board at: http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/oncyV2/
For your first overview though, you should look through the company’s own website at http://oncolyticsbiotech.com/
rjc
It sounds like your broker is claiming to be just a facility for laundering illegal shares. Ask them WHO you did purchase your shares from (as they claim that it wasn't them).
If they tell you, then you have a target to go after (with your broker as proof of who sold them to you) ... if they can't tell you, then they are laundering shares.
This KRAS and EFGR testing is of interest to ONCY - (Oncolytics Biotech).
Oncolytics Biotech Link:
http://www.oncolyticsbiotech.com/
In general, Oncolytics' reovirus therapeutic works best against a wide variety of cancers with an activated Ras pathway. KRAS and activated EFGR are markers for an activated Ras pathway.
"Oncolytics announced in March 2009 that it had started patient enrolment in its U.S. Phase 2 clinical trial using intravenous administration of REOLYSIN® in combination with paclitaxel and carboplatin in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with K-RAS or EGFR-activated tumours."
rjc
More news.
What we’re seeing here looks like the “Amish” part of Amish Naturals Inc. Although this is a “gift” to the community, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this lead to Amish Naturals becoming a spokesman for healthy eating.
“I’m delighted to be involved in an initiative that helps thousands of kids share in the fun of learning to select and prepare delicious foods that enhance their own lives and help their families stay healthy too,” said Executive Chef for Amish Naturals, Stacey DeHass.
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http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStory.go?storyId=9838661&topic=AMNT&symbology=null
Amish Naturals Partners with The Junior League on Renowned Kids in the Kitchen Education Initiative
Amish Naturals Executive Chef will Embark on Tour to Teach Kids About the Importance of Healthy Eating
Natural food products company, Amish Naturals, Inc. (OTCBB:AMNT), will partner with The Association of Junior Leagues International Inc. (AJLI) on its renowned “Kids in the Kitchen” education initiative, the company announced at the 86th AJLI Annual Conference in San Diego, California.
“As a company committed to bring premium food products to the nation’s table that not only taste great, but are truly good for you, our partnership with the Kids in the Kitchen program is a natural fit for us,” said President and CEO of Amish Naturals, David Skinner, Sr.
As part of Amish Naturals’ participation in the program, Stacey DeHass, Amish Naturals’ executive chef, will embark on a city culinary tour to help youngsters learn about healthy eating and involve them in the preparation of their own meals and snacks, including recipes and snacks that serve as a complement to Amish Naturals’ fresh, organic pastas and line of wholesome food products. Tour dates will be announced over the next few months.
“I’m delighted to be involved in an initiative that helps thousands of kids share in the fun of learning to select and prepare delicious foods that enhance their own lives and help their families stay healthy too,” said Executive Chef for Amish Naturals, Stacey DeHass.
“The Junior Leagues are determined to remain in the forefront of this struggle to enable children to take proper care of their bodies and control their future health,” said AJLI President, Sandi Kemmish. “With the help of companies like Amish Naturals, we are able to continue the grassroots Kids in the Kitchen campaign to provide children with hands-on education activities related to nutrition and healthy meal preparation. We believe that education and hands-on involvement are the first steps toward addressing the urgent issues surrounding childhood obesity.”
More than 240 Junior Leagues participate in this grassroots initiative to empower children to adopt healthy lifestyles. Organized in 2006, Kids in the Kitchen responds to the staggering statistic that nearly one-third of children and adolescents in North and South America will be overweight by 2010 and at increased risk of contracting Type II diabetes, high blood pressure, the numerous ailments related to high cholesterol and social problems that affect self-esteem.
The Junior Leagues’ comprehensive website supports the grassroots programs, which are free to participants, with entertaining and educational material focused on childhood health. Because children are more likely to try new foods they have helped prepare, the website features easy-to-make, tasty and nutritious recipes from chefs and celebrities. The website can be found at http://kidsinthekitchen.ajli.org.
About Amish Naturals, Inc.
Founded as an organic pasta producer, Amish Naturals now manufactures and distributes organic and natural pastas, condiments and bakery products through its recent acquisitions of Prima Pasta, based in Los Angeles, California, the Amish Heritage Line, based in Lancaster, PA, and Schlabach Amish Bakery, based in Millersburg, Ohio. Amish Naturals’ mission is to increase shareholder value through the sale and distribution of organic and natural Amish food products to the growing market for organic and wholesome foods. Last year, the U.S. market for natural/organic foods was estimated to have totaled approximately $13.8 billion. Building on generations of traditions, the company has created food that reflects the wholesomeness and purity of the Amish people and their culinary customs. For more information, please visit www.amishnaturals.com.
About The Association of Junior Leagues International
Founded in 1901 by New Yorker Mary Harriman, the Junior Leagues are charitable organizations of women committed to voluntarism, developing the potential of women and improving communities through the effective action and leadership of trained volunteers. The Association of Junior Leagues International is made up of 293 Junior Leagues in Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom and the United States. Together, they are one of the largest international volunteer organizations for women interested in making a positive impact in their communities. For more information, visit the website, www.ajli.org.
Business Risks and Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve uncertainties and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed or implied in the forward-looking statements. These statements are expressly made in reliance on the safe harbor provisions contained in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed or implied in the forward-looking statements, include risks associated with our entry into distribution agreements with wholesale food brokers and large-scale retail outlets, the effectiveness of our promotion and merchandising strategies, the efficient operation of our production facility and supply chain, the changing dietary and culinary habits of consumers in our target markets, and our effective management of business risks.
In light of these risks, the forward-looking statements contained in this press release are not guarantees of future performance and in fact may not be realized. Our actual results could differ materially and adversely from those expressed in this press release. Further, the statements made by us represent our views only as of the date of this press release, and it should not be assumed that the statements made herein remain accurate as of any future date. We do not presently intend to update these statements prior to the filing of our next report with the Securities and Exchange Commission and undertake no duty to any person to effect any such update under any circumstances. For additional information regarding the specific risks mentioned and other risks, please read the Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which may be accessed through the EDGAR database maintained by the SEC at www.sec.gov.
Media:
Avalanche Strategic Communications
Dana Condosta, 201-488-0049
Fax: 201-488-1550
dana@avalanchepr.com
or
Investors:
Amish Naturals, 330-279-3161
Source: Business Wire (April 24, 2008 - 9:24 AM EDT)
News from April 14, 2008 - new products
http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStory.go?storyId=9667208&topic=AMNT&symbology=null
It seems like nobody's reading this stuff.
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Amish Naturals Introduces High-Fiber Chewy Granola Bar Combining Natural, Premium Ingredients with Great Taste and Flavors
Launch Extends Natural Food Company’s Product Offerings into $1.8 Billion Snack Food Category
With a growing number of active consumers looking to add more fiber to their diets without sacrificing time, quality or taste, Amish Naturals, Inc. (OTCBB:AMNT), a natural food products company, has launched a snack line including four varieties of 100 percent all-natural Chewy Granola Bars, available nationwide next month at grocery stores, including two fiber-rich varieties.
“Our entry into the $1.8 billion snack bar market is an inherent extension of the Amish Naturals’ Hi-Fiber Initiative and our mission to provide natural, premium food products that not only taste great, but are truly good for you,” said President and CEO of Amish Naturals, David Skinner, Sr.
Available in the cereal aisle, the new line of granola bars will feature four tasty flavor combinations including:
Dark Chocolate (Five 1.4 oz bars per carton; each bar contains 2 grams of fiber and 4 grams of protein)
Peanut Butter (Five 1.4 oz bars per carton; each bar contains 3 grams of fiber and 5 grams of protein)
Fiber-Rich Peanut Butter (Five 1.4 oz bars per carton; each bar contains 7 grams of fiber and 4 grams of protein)
Fiber-Rich Fruit and Nut (Five 1.4 oz bars per carton; each bar contains 7 grams of fiber and 4 grams of protein)
All Amish Naturals’ Chewy Granola Bars contain no artificial ingredients, no high-fructose corn syrup, no trans fats, no hydrogenated vegetable oils and no genetically modified organisms (GMOs).
“When choosing the ingredients for our Chewy Granola Bars, we were careful to choose ingredients that both reflect the wholesomeness and purity of the Amish people and their culinary traditions as well as ensure taste and flavor remained paramount,” said Stacey DeHass, executive chef for Amish Naturals. “We combined a blend of the finest nuts, grains and seeds, that are toasted and naturally sweetened, that would meet consumers’ demand for healthier snack alternatives, yet still meet the need for indulgence.”
“We unveiled samples of Amish Naturals’ Granola Bars at Expo West just a few weeks ago. The reactions we received were incredible.” said Troy Treangen, executive vice president and chief operating officer for Amish Naturals. “We will start selling our granola items to distributors and customers starting this week. Consumers will find our granola products on store shelves in approximately 8-12 weeks at a price in line with other bars on the market.”
About Amish Naturals, Inc.
Founded as an organic pasta producer, Amish Naturals now manufactures and distributes organic and natural pastas, condiments and bakery products through its recent acquisitions of Prima Pasta, based in Los Angeles, California, the Amish Heritage Line, based in Lancaster, PA, and Schlabach Amish Bakery, based in Millersburg, Ohio. Amish Naturals’ mission is to increase shareholder value through the sale and distribution of organic and natural Amish food products to the growing market for organic and wholesome foods. Last year, the U.S. market for natural/organic foods was estimated to have totaled approximately $13.8 billion. Building on generations of traditions, the company has created food that reflects the wholesomeness and purity of the Amish people and their culinary customs. For more information, please visit www.amishnaturals.com.
Business Risks and Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve uncertainties and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed or implied in the forward-looking statements. These statements are expressly made in reliance on the safe harbor provisions contained in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed or implied in the forward-looking statements, include risks associated with our entry into distribution agreements with wholesale food brokers and large-scale retail outlets, the effectiveness of our promotion and merchandising strategies, the efficient operation of our production facility and supply chain, the changing dietary and culinary habits of consumers in our target markets, and our effective management of business risks.
In light of these risks, the forward-looking statements contained in this press release are not guarantees of future performance and in fact may not be realized. Our actual results could differ materially and adversely from those expressed in this press release. Further, the statements made by us represent our views only as of the date of this press release, and it should not be assumed that the statements made herein remain accurate as of any future date. We do not presently intend to update these statements prior to the filing of our next report with the Securities and Exchange Commission and undertake no duty to any person to effect any such update under any circumstances. For additional information regarding the specific risks mentioned and other risks, please read the Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which may be accessed through the EDGAR database maintained by the SEC at www.sec.gov.
Media:
Avalanche Strategic Communications
Dana Condosta, 201-488-0049
Fax: 201-488-1550
dana@avalanchepr.com
or
Investors:
Amish Naturals, 330-279-3161
Source: Business Wire (April 14, 2008 - 9:56 AM EDT)
I was speaking this morning with Bob Denn, the Strikeforce president.
It takes a long time for a new piece of software, or a suite of software products, to really get rolling ... particularly in the corporate marketplace where there is a very large market for Strikeforce. Strikeforce has been working on breaking into the corporate market for quite a while now, and although they are selling product ... the big volume deals are still being developed. It looks like one of them will be happening quite soon, with a large credit monitoring company.
In the early days, this firm had an interest in marketing the Strikeforce products, but now it looks like they will be integrating the Strikeforce code directly into their own main product, and Strikeforce will participate on a royalty basis. Testing is to start shortly.
I also got to speak with their primary software developer. He was able to answer my questions and to describe some of the current work being done to expand the functionality of their products.
rjc
You are corrrect on the Q4 loss
Net Income:
2007 Q1 (109,258) (loss)
2007 Q2 949,466 gain
2007 Q3 195,909 gain
2007 Q4 ( 83,608) (loss)
=========
2007 952,509
Hi Thinkpad
When I attempted to start up RealTime this morning, it gave me 2 login errors during the start, leaving me with the login screen showing. I clicked login, and things continued to the orange/yellow splash screen then froze there.
This is not new. It happens on and off; maybe a couple of times a month on my system.
I used <Ctrl>-<Alt>-<Delete> to remove the 2 running iFinix processes, and then started fresh again and everything loaded fine.
As a bonus, the INXR Offer Book shows information (it has been an INVALID SYMBOL for the last couple of trading days).
The <Ctrl>-<Alt>-<Delete> approach is documented in “The unauthorized USER (pre)MANUAL … V3”, at http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22205114
rjc
Confirming ...
http://www.ifinix.com/dnn/ works fine.
It looks like http://www.ifinix.com/ relays to http://www.ifinix.com/dnn/ and that it was the relay that was broken for a short time this morning.
Both addresses work for me now.
rjc
From customer support
rjc: Is there a problem with the RealTime system this morning?
Jeff: Good morning rjc I am Jeff. I am glad to help you with that.
Jeff: Our sever is facing some technical issues from this morning.
Jeff: There is a login problem.
Jeff: It will be resolved soon.
The chart that I included in my earlier post (# 14156) is the story of AAGH’s base business … that of providing advertising services, and particularly internet advertising services, to China.
There can be some seasonality in this business, and from the chart we see that although 2005 was a fairly flat year, their peak revenue in 2004 was in Q4 (by a large margin), their peak revenue in 2006 was in Q4 (by a large margin), and it could be highest for 2007 in Q4 too. I’m budgeting for Q4 revenues this year (from the base business) to be higher than the Q3 revenues that we saw in their recent PR.
We also see from the graph that the Q3 revenues, just announced, set an all time high for AAGH quarterly revenues, with a value almost double that of 2006 Q3, and about 6.6 times the 2005 Q3 value. These are the sort of figures normally associated with a rapidly growing company.
In Q4 of this year, we will see another income stream added to the base business … the Revenue from WWTBAM. I’m looking for a particularly good looking year end report this year.
The correct time to accumulate is before either the (assumed great) revenues from Q4 get published, or before they get hinted at.
You might want to compare the expected income from WWTBAM to the accelerating base income too. I think you’ll find that each income stream has its own flavor, but that they compliment each other nicely.
rjc
Here’s an updated progress chart for AAGH to the extent that it can be completed with today’s partial Q3 data.
2007 Q1, Q2, Q3 do not include any revenue from WWTBAM, but do include the licensing, production, and other costs associated with WWTBAM to the end of Q3.
In case you don’t recall the cause of the sudden Q1 2007 drop in the Net Income (off the chart to a net loss of $2,947,163); $2,757,000 of that loss was a one-time non-cash award of 26,500,000 shares of common stock relating to management services, business advisory, and legal and professional services valued at the fair market value on the dates of grant. The shares were issued under AAGH's Registration Statement on Form S-8 relating to the registration of the AAGH's 2007 Non-Qualified Incentive Stock Compensation Plan as filed with the SEC on January 31, 2007
rjc
My notes from the presentation:
There was a flurry of numbers intended to clarify the recent quarterly reports. This would best have been provided by a PR, but at least it’s something.
Drew was compensated for the software that he provided, that forms the basis of the current iFinix programs. The software was valued at $1.5 million, and all of that has been paid except for $20,000, and accrued interest through the issuing of 2.467 B restricted shares to Drew. That works out to being paid with shares valued at 0.0006 each. Drew chose not to charge interest on the $1.5 million, but was advised that interest must be charged, so it was set at a little over 2% (I didn’t write down the number).
Doug loaned the company $220,000. The loan has been repaid with 300 M restricted shares. That works out to being paid with shares valued at 0.0007333 each.
There were lots of other numbers too, but they will have to wait until a rebroadcast.
The $20 iFinix RealTime introductory price will continue until the end of the year. There are currently 200 paid subscribers.
The iFinix Trader system is currently being modified to meet the needs of Legend and others, and so will not be released until next year.
The ad program has been pulled, and is being reworked before starting it up again.
They continue to work toward a BB listing, and the SEC approved auditor selection process (for NASD/SEC acceptable audited financials) should be completed soon.
There was more, but this is what I jotted down. Some of the above could have been jotted down incorrectly.
rjc
Go here:
http://www.helloworld.com/(S(yn1ydt55syaly255bfsohcvb))/members_myworld.aspx?ID=iFinix
and click on the picture of the broadcast tower.
The same version (1.0.0.2) is running as we have had for the last couple of months, but I do confirm the (current) odd volume reading that you reported. Either the system has missed a 10,000,000 share trade, or some changes are being tried out on the data feed end, where data can be manipulated before it is passed along to our running program.
Hopefully, we'll see version 1.0.0.17 or higher soon.
I can't blame them for dropping their earlier practice of updating the program as changes are made, and switching instead to waiting for the major upgrade to be completed and become stable (in testing) before upgrading us, but it sure is taking a long time.
rjc
If you can; go Friday before market close, so you can let us know if they're running their system there with a live market feed.
Also ... ask them what version number they are running.
rjc
Well then, does anybody have a statement on this from the company (and I don't mean Megas email)?
rjc
So how do we determine "the last traded price of the shares on the open market" in such a way that the value arrived at will be considered to be correct by our brokers, or by a court?
rjc
Somehow, I hadn't noticed that the first day of the show was on a Friday.
I don't kow whether they will be proividing a live feed on Friday or not, but I assume that they will.
rjc
What they demo, and the released version of the product, could be two different things. With the markets closed during the demo, they will be running against dummy data.
rjc
From the iFinix Trading Platform Technical Board at
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=9841
Need iFinix RealTime problem support, or subscription assistance?
Call the Customer Support team at (805) 347-6964
or try Online support (Live Chat) at http://tinyurl.com/2nubqu
(After hours and on weekends you can leave a message for a response by email.)
I wouldn't bother with leaving a message for an email response. Contact them on Monday instead.
rjc
A thought on the TOS display
My chat with technical support this morning:
rjc: I would like to suggest presenting TOS volume values as right justified numbers. It is done by some other sources, and makes reading the values much easier, especially when the trades are in the 100,000’s or millions.
Jeff: Good morning rjc. I am Jeff. I am glad to help you with that.
Jeff: Thank you for the feed back, rjc I will forward it to my superiors.
rjc: You're welcome. What sort of changes will we see in the next RealTime release?
Jeff: 1,Connecting to multiple servers
2,Saving and loading settings along with workspace
3,Historical Time Of Sales display
4,Help files
5,Release Notes
rjc: thanks
Jeff: Also Chart has been updated with a lot of new features.
rjc: Sounds good to me. Is there a guess as to when it will be released?
Jeff: We haven't received any information about the exact date of release.
rjc: Thanks Jeff. Bye for now.
It could mean that there are 1 billion Authorized Class B shares, of which 800 million have been issued. There are other possible answers. Perhaps Todd will be able to clear this up for us tomorrow.
rjc
An incomplete evaluation:
I have claimed that before we can suggest an appropriate share price, we need:
1) Current financials
2) Share structure with OS
3) A clear picture of product quality, and market potential
We don’t have any of these completely right now, but we do have partials. We have:
1) Financials to the end of last year, with an expectation of more filings, and a rough (but reasonable) understanding of what has gone on in the first 3/4 of 2007 … startup and advertising costs balanced to some extent with some early income from RealTime subscriptions.
2) We have an OS to Sep 30 of a little under 10B, with an un-gagged TA presumably coming very soon.
3) We have an existing product that provides Real Time Level 2 depth for Pinks that most other sources don’t, and a subscription price that beats those that do have real time depth for Level 2. We also have an expectation that the blemishes on the currently released version are about to disappear, and that a significant improvement in the presentation of the related data based information (charts, TOS histories, etc.) are also about to improve.
Perhaps we can get a feel for where the share price could be from the partials listed above.
Let’s assume that the next product release is clean, it performs well, and is priced to be a good deal for what is offered. We’ll also assume that there will be enough income from product subscriptions to allow the OS to remain constant. While we’re at it, let’s use the original subscription response of about 2,000 subscriptions (all of which were either free or at a low introductory price, plus exchange fees) as an ongoing number. Many of this group will have let their subscription lapse, but others will be added if the next release is what we hope it to be. While we’re at it, let’s assume that iFinix continues with the sort of low operating cost that they have shown so far. Let’s retain about 70% if income for earnings with the other 30% going to expenses. Software companies often do much better than this 70% gross margin, but not in the early stages.
There is LOTS of room for error here, but let’s see where this takes us:
2,000 subscribers at $60 per month for a revenue stream of $1,440,000 per year
giving an income per share (at 10B OS) of $0.000144
and an earnings per share (with 70% GM) of $0.0001
With a typical Share Price to Earnings ratio of 20:1, this yields a share price of $0.002
On the surface, this indicates that the share price could move shortly to 0.002 … that is, to 10 times the current share price of 0.0002
What could happen though (assuming that the products ends up doing what it was planned to do in full)?
We’ll certainly end up with more than 2,000 subscribers for the RealTime Platform.
The addition of a direct-connect trading capability in the Trading Platform will add more subscribers.
The introduction of the mobile eFinix system will add even more subscribers.
The higher priced Trader and eFinix programs will add proportionally to the income stream.
With scale, the Gross Margin will improve moving up from the start-up GM achievable.
A move to a more senior Exchange listing, will bring in new investors, helping with both exposure for the product, and with an immediate effect on the share price.
With a Trading link to one or more brokers, iFinix can start participating in a share of trading commissions.
A move to a PE closer to 50:1 (which is often associated with new products being sold) rather than the 20:1 from above (that is more usually associated with mature products and sales).
Some of the items in this "future list" could happen quite soon.
The above is VERY rough, but it is at least a reasoned reference calculation. Feel free to adjust the assumptions to suite your own experiences.
I have a general message board philosophy that recommends listening to everybody, but trusting nobody. This applies just as well to my posts as to any other post. Because this particular post describes a future (or even a potentially current) share price for INXR (certainly not my normal style), this post should go to the top of the “trust nobody” list. All I ask at this point, is that you think about the above, adjust the assumptions to fit your own understanding, and to revisit these ideas in the future when we have more information.
rjc
Anyone need a positive spin?
Today, the INXR share price fell to match its previous 12 month low; but bounced off it with high volume, to close with a 100% gain from the low, in a spectacular reversal of the downtrend.
rjc :)
The decimal places further off to the right (beyond the 4th position) can be used by the MMs even though they cannot be used by us.
The advantage in being able to see them is in knowing if there’s a MM just ahead of the best bid or ask or not, with a position that would not otherwise be visible.
rjc