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India Hurst Cycles
The Hurst view has not changed from the last post in early May.
The Sensex is in the last 40 week cycle that should lead into an important nest of lows for the 9 year cycle on down. This analysis uses an expert model for the Sensex (first chart), although I have run past analyses with the $SPX as the reference expert model (forcing the principle of commonality onto Sentient Trader). The left edge for this run is 1/07/1997 (yahoo finance data).
The Sensex also likely made a 20 week low this past week although it is not obvious as of yet. The target into the coming major low is nominally 15000 as mentioned in May. But a lower target is likely given the large cycles coming into play.
I expect the Sensex to bottom early, before the $SPX and many other world markets make their respective 9 year lows. I also expect a higher low versus the late 2008 lows.
Hope that helps.
cheers,
john
hi Lee,
The Aug. 10 post and $SPX ST chart was an analysis run with 01/01/1990 as the left edge and my SPX expert model.
Regarding $SPX expert models, I suggest you have a look at some of my postings at the Sentient Trader User Forum. I discussed long term phasing in a couple of threads and it is basically an extension of Bob Chonski's past work.
Bear in mind that ST's outlook can vary at times, changing its mind on where to place the last 10 week low for example. So I am not surprised that you might see a different "look" than what I've last posted.
But I try to bring my own Hurst view to bear, and as I have been suggesting this week, a 20 week low is very likely being made here. I won't post or rely on a Sentient Hurst look that I disagree with. What kind of bounce that comes here is quite difficult to predict though.
I'll try to get to update the Sensex tonight.
Welcome aboard the Sentient Trader express!
cheers,
john
$SPX Monthly Gann Charts
The Hurst outlook for this fall is bearish. All Hurst cycles from the 9 year down to the 40 week are currently pointing down. The 20 week is the only cycle pointing up and it will top out sometime late August to early Sept.
Gann fan targets (second chart) for support into the coming nest of major lows is either near $SPX 800, 940 or 1075. I doubt that 1075 will hold.
cheers,
john
P.S. DowDeva, I don't have PM priveleges here. But thanks for the message. It helped put my autoimmune struggles into the right perspective. I too am taking a multiple naturopathic approach to healing.
$SPX Monthly Gann Charts
The Hurst outlook for this fall is bearish. All Hurst cycles from the 9 year down to the 40 week are currently pointing down. The 20 week is the only cycle pointing up and it will top out sometime late August to early Sept.
Gann fan targets (second chart) for support into the coming nest of major lows is either near $SPX 800, 954 or 1075. I doubt that 1075 will hold.
cheers,
john
20 week cycle low is in (IMHO, ah make that very humble opinion) ... :)
$SPX Hurst Cycles
Been away much of July and my health continues to be poor. So postings are being kept to a minimum.
The last look was the week of July 4th. It was indeed a top and not very obvious. While the $SPX and US markets did a great job of fooling market players, other indices (eg. $TSX) were a better tell.
A 20 week low is at hand as mentioned in the last $SPX post. A cycle low should take hold by Fed day and a sharp rally for 2-3 weeks should take markets into a top around Labour Day.
From there we will see the next leg down for this bear market. I say bear market because the target generated for this fall is a retest of the summer 2010 lows ~ 1050. That is the minimum target generated by the 80 week FLD.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
www.sentienttrader.com
$SPX Hurst Cycles
Been away much of July and my health continues to be poor. So postings are being kept to a minimum.
The last look was the week of July 4th. It was indeed a top and not very obvious. While the $SPX and US markets did a great job of fooling market players, other indices (eg. $TSX) were a better tell.
A 20 week low is at hand as mentioned in the last $SPX post. A cycle low should take hold by Fed day and a sharp rally for 2-3 weeks should take markets into a top around Labour Day.
From there we will see the next leg down for this bear market. I say bear market because the target generated for this fall is a retest of the summer 2010 lows ~ 1050. That is the minimum target generated by the 80 week FLD.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
www.sentienttrader.com
$SPX Hurst Cycles
cheers,
john
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=64872950
$SPX Hurst Cycles
Short Update.
We are likely making a high today or it is already in with Friday's trading. We should see a decline into a 20 week cycle late July or early August. The USD index is about to start a multi-month rally from this week forward. I assume the Greek debt crisis will expand and drive much of the summer trading from here.
Sentient is stuck on where to place the last 10 week low. I think it was late May and I expect the next 5, 10 and 20 week nest of lows later this summer. Sentient is being run here without my expert $SPX model. In other words it is relying solely on its spectral analysis (20+ years of data).
The rally seen last week was part of that time translation I mentioned in the GE post. TWT.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
www.sentienttrader.com
Thanks guys. I won't be posting much this summer. Health issues and summer days will keep me from doing much with the markets. Be careful out there.
cheers,
john
GE Hurst Cycles Analysis
Here's a look GE, one of the "Generals" of the DOW stocks. It is always a good idea to follow this stock and see what it is doing for clues on the overall market.
I'll start with GE's long term view on a monthly basis. The first chart is Sentient on its own (no expert model, no commonality):
This next chart is Sentient running with my $SPX expert model as reference. The two outputs agree and I like the "look" as well.
If this phasing analysis is correct, GE is likely to retest its 2009 lows as we head into the next nest of lows due for the 9 year cycle (4.5 year, 18 month etc.). This means that a bearish trend is likely to develop very soon. There is probably Hurst Cycle based evidence that this may be happening now.
I am satisfied with the ST output using the $SPX expert model, so let me continue with it from here.
Here is a look at the weekly:
This analysis suggests that the last 40 week low arrived in March 2011 (Japanese Earthquake/Tsunami). If this is true, then there is already evidence that GE has entered a bearish trend.
This view shows how an important nest of lows is due for the stock either late this year or into 2012.
Here is a look at the daily:
The 40 week FLD has already been crossed to the downside, which is very early in this 40 week cycle. The 40 wk FLD has generated a target of ~$17. Price has yet to achieve this level.
Here is a closer look at the daily.
Note that price has broken below the 40 week low level of March, which is a bearish sign from a cycle point of view. Price has also broken below that last 10 week cycle low which was likely in late May. These two failures help to confirm that a bearish trend has developed for GE. The next 20 week low is due late July or early August. GE could trend down into a low until that timeframe, and then rally once more before making another top before another decline into the major nest of lows due later this year or into 2012. The difficult thing to judge here will be the time translation that might occur this summer for the market in general and GE.
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
GE Hurst Cycles Analysis
Here's a look GE, one of the "Generals" of the DOW stocks. It is always a good idea to follow this stock and see what it is doing for clues on the overall market.
I'll start with GE's long term view on a monthly basis. The first chart is Sentient on its own (no expert model, no commonality):
This next chart is Sentient running with my $SPX expert model as reference. The two outputs agree and I like the "look" as well.
If this phasing analysis is correct, GE is likely to retest its 2009 lows as we head into the next nest of lows due for the 9 year cycle (4.5 year, 18 month etc.). This means that a bearish trend is likely to develop very soon. There is probably Hurst Cycle based evidence that this may be happening now.
I am satisfied with the ST output using the $SPX expert model, so let me continue with it from here.
Here is a look at the weekly:
This analysis suggests that the last 40 week low arrived in March 2011 (Japanese Earthquake/Tsunami). If this is true, then there is already evidence that GE has entered a bearish trend.
This view shows how an important nest of lows is due for the stock either late this year or into 2012.
Here is a look at the daily:
The 40 week FLD has already been crossed to the downside, which is very early in this 40 week cycle. The 40 wk FLD has generated a target of ~$17. Price has yet to achieve this level.
Here is a closer look at the daily.
Note that price has broken below the 40 week low level of March, which is a bearish sign from a cycle point of view. Price has also broken below that last 10 week cycle low which was likely in late May. These two failures help to confirm that a bearish trend has developed for GE. The next 20 week low is due late July or early August. GE could trend down into a low until that timeframe, and then rally once more before making another top before another decline into the major nest of lows due later this year or into 2012. The difficult thing to judge here will be the time translation that might occur this summer for the market in general and GE.
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
hi Doc,
I'm looking for the next 20 week low sometime in late July or early August. What we see short term and into that time frame could be ugly. I'm done trading the long side and won't be picky any lows until later in the summer. The reversal last week pretty much confirmed the bear setup cycle wise (ie decline into larger cycle lows being due). I assume we saw a 10 week low last week that failed.
Here is the expert model I am currently running (phasing set back to 1994). The charts that follow are with Sentient running the expert model as reference and a nominal Hurst setting.
Let me know when you sign up to give ST a test run. :0)
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
Wow, what a nutmeg from a cycles point (eg. $SPX) of view ...
hi Doc,
Like any method, it's all about interpretation. As a Hurst technician, I know what I am looking for, and I know what tends to look right and what does not. For me, running Sentient as a Hurst tool is like having your own novice Hurst student in your employ. It is a very modern thinking student that knows the Hurst course inside and out, and uses a spectral analysis each time a set of data is studied. Have you run a spectral analysis lately on any particular market? Until I came across Sentient, finding dominant cycles was all eyeball and the use of various Hurst techniques.
The Hurst rules set for Sentient are tight (but can be adjusted somewhat) and the software applies the Hurst method in every way possible. An example of this is airedale's long standing phasings for the $SPX. Sentient is having a lot of trouble this year when using it as a reference model and I have not gotten very good results with it set up this way. That was the third chart I posted.
But the real power of Sentient is the ability to cover multiple markets in real time to make good timely judgements and forecasts. Who out there is posting online and covering all these markets I listed below? Can you imagine the work it would take to apply the correct phasings manually, plot all the FLDs, sort out the VTLs etc. for each of the markets below.
Thanks for your thoughts. GLGT.
cheers,
john
These are a few of many markets I follow weekly, some daily ...
$SPX
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59384815
USD Index
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=63752242
HUI
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=63251557
India Sensex
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=60515706
30 Year US Treasuries
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=59117397
USD Index Hurst Cycles
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=63752242
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
USD Index Hurst Cycles
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
Long update.
Here's an update from this past winter. As posted at the iHub forum:
hi Doc,
Gold Peaks Analysis
hey Scott,
I'll stick with gold as silver is too tricky.
All I see in the precious metal side is lots of risk to the downside. Based on peaks analysis for gold (counting months peak to peak), there are basically two cycles two follow in the big picture. There is the 61 (+/-2) month cycle peak to peak marked by the orange triangles at the top of the chart, and there is the 20 month (+/-2) indicated by the yellow triangles. Whenever we see the 20 month peak, we get some very smart corrections. When the 60 month peaks, we get a crapola market for gold and gold stocks that lasts for many months. The last such peak was back in 2006. For long term investors in mining stocks, the PM market did nothing but cause pain for 3 years after that May 2006 top.
So my read is that we are very late in the cycle and there is always the chance that gold could make one more run. But I don't see it and I am more focused on what the USD is about to do.
Hope that gives you some perspective.
cheers,
john
A status of the various peak cycles is listed below per Sentient Trader:
$SPX 5 week low due this week. Looking for swing low buy here for longs into June.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=63509002
cheers,
john
hi slinky,
I'm going with some longs midday and will accumulate through this week. We should see a post Memorial Day rally into June.
I'm still unsure where to place the 40 week cycle low, as Sentient Trader is still eyeing the April low.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com/
hi guys,
Well if the 10 week low is in, this is a relative weak response for a rally out of such a low this week. It's time to start paying very close attention to a top being formed for the current 80 week cycle ( $SPX). I still expect June 11th to be a major turning point for a number of reasons.
I think I'll leave it to day trades and short term stuff and not get carried away. There will be an excellent short opportunity in September I predict, but lots of chop up and down until distribtuion is exhausted.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
hi slinky,
I'm with you. I'm looking for swing long entries Monday onwards. We could be wrong and the cycle low is in already though.
Looking at the cycle periods of late, this would make the most sense. Also, if we rollover today into the coming cycle low, this would be the spot IMO.
cheers,
john
HUI Hurst Cycles
Long update. Gold has likely topped for the year, but there is always the possibility of one more blow higher. What I am more focused on is the USD as an important 18 month cycle low is imminent. However, the USD may not rally in earnest until after June. Thus there is still time for some distribution to occur for stocks etc.
As for the HUI we can say the following. The 14 month VTL was broken to the downside recently. This presents one of two possibilities. Either the 14 month low is forming right now, or, the HUI has already entered into a bearish phase for the current 14 month cycle. Price is currently resting on the 14 month FLD (yellow line). So if the 14 month cycle low did not come in Jan., there is downside risk as this low is formed. However, if Jan. was the 14 month cycle low, then price is likely to play around with the 14 month FLD and bounce higher until later this summer before a downward break is made into the 4 year cycle low later this year or in 2012.
Look at how the top in 2008 was formed. Price played with the 14 month FLD for 3 months before finally breaking lower. Once price breaks decisively below the 14 month FLD, the HUI is on its way into the coming 4 year low due late 2011 or in 2012.
We are likely to form a 14 week cycle low for the HUI this week. Price should be supported by the 14 month FLD just below (yellow line). A weak rally with unknown potential is likely into June some time. The 14 month FLD will be rising and provide a stop for long term holders.
The best buy lies ahead for gold and gold stocks, either late this year or into 2012. The 4.5 year low due at the end of this 14 month cycle should see lots of volatility. There will be commonality here with stocks in general as the 4.5 and 9 year low is due for stocks (eg. $SPX) and many world indices late this year into 2012. Thus, I'd look for a strong USD rally in the second half of 2011 to cause a fair bit of market angst.
GLGT.
cheers,
john
www.sentienttrader.com
P.S. I have run Sentient Trader using ICM (Initial Cyclic Model) settings, not Hurst's Nominal model. Thus ST is using a spectral analysis to identify the dominant cycles. I have always worked with 14 week, 14 month and 4-4.5 year cycles and on this ST agrees.
Below is a Summary of Sentient's Analysis:
Price is currently in the SECOND 3 day cycle, of the SECOND 6 day cycle, of the SECOND 12 day cycle, of the SECOND 24 day cycle, of the SECOND 46 day cycle, of the FIRST 88 day cycle, of the FIRST 29 week cycle, of the THIRD 13 month cycle, of the FIRST 46 month cycle, of the 0 year cycle,.
Updated FPA reveals that the dominant cycle has a wavelength of 13.9M, or 456 bars. This is assumed to be the 18m nominal wave, which implies that all waves will be (-16%) shorter than nominal.This cycle is RISING fast. The underlying trend to this cycle is currently slightly UP. Recent fulfilled projections however would seem to indicate that the underlying trend is STRONGLY DOWN. The future FLD indicates that this cycle will influence prices to peak soon, and then fall.
The sub-dominant cycle (next wave down from the dominant cycle) has a wavelength of 29.4w, or 206 bars. This is assumed to be the 40w nominal wave. This cycle is just beginning to FALL. This is probably the FIRST of 3 sub-waves. The underlying trend to this cycle is currently strongly UP. Recent fulfilled projections however indicate that the underlying trend is FLAT, probably turning UP. The future FLD indicates that this cycle will influence prices to fall for a short time, and then form a trough.
The pre-dominant cycle (next wave up from the dominant cycle) has a wavelength of 46.0M, or 1399 bars. This is assumed to be the 54m nominal wave. This cycle is FALLING fast. The underlying trend to this cycle is currently strongly UP. Recent fulfilled projections however would seem to indicate that the underlying trend is SLIGHTLY DOWN, but indicate that it is accelerating (speeding up). The future FLD indicates that this cycle will influence prices very little because despite near-term volatility the FLD becomes range-bound.
S L is currently STRONGLY UP (strength: 2 cycles)
The 46.0M CYCLE component of S L is currently FLAT, likely TURNING DOWN.
The 13.9M CYCLE component of S L is currently UP (strength: 1)
The 29.4w CYCLE component of S L is currently FLAT, likely TURNING DOWN.
The 88.5d CYCLE component of S L is currently FLAT, likely TURNING DOWN.
The 46.0d CYCLE component of S L is currently DOWN (strength: 1)
The 24.5d CYCLE component of S L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -5 cycles), and accelerating.
The 12.4d CYCLE component of S L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -5 cycles), and accelerating.
The 6.4d CYCLE component of S L is currently FLAT, likely TURNING UP.
The 3.2d CYCLE component of S L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -4 cycles), and accelerating.
The 12.4d cycle is the ideal trading cycle, with an average potential of 12.1% per half-cycle. This equates to 24.2% because of leverage settings.
As you have chosen a longer cycle than this to trade, the 24.5d cycle will be used as the trading cycle. Change the Trading Settings by using the Tools|Trade Settings|Edit menu.
CURRENT FLD PATTERN PROJECTION:
Price has risen over the past 4 bars (last close 523.44) in a generally RANGE-BOUND price movement, with the FLD pattern indicating an impending UPWARD move, because: It is possible that the first sequence of the FLD pattern has already been fulfilled, by the low of 507.98 on 13/05/2011 which would indicate that the second, UPWARD sequence of the pattern is now in progress.
The first FLD pattern sequence (ref #0) projects a price movement DOWN to a target of 492.04 by about 14/05/2011.
The second FLD pattern sequence (ref #1) projects a price movement UP to a target of 570.57 by about 21/05/2011. This move would imply a 2-tier cascade of price crosses over the 12 day to 24 day FLDs (est: 18/05/2011 & level: 528.35)
Sentient Trader
If Hurst were mainstream, Sentient Trader would have won this award hands down IMO.
Leading edge stuff IMO.
cheers,
john
$SPX 5 week low due May 20 - 23
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=63119956
hi slinky,
One more rally to start by opex? I have a 5 week Hurst cycle low due Friday or Monday (May 20-23). Sentient is undecided where to place the 40 week Hurst low (ie. low in April vs. mid-March). Since the cycle periods are likely lengthening as we progress into this 80 week cycle (and second 80 week cycle period off the March 2009), April could well turn out to be the actual 40 week low. If so, don't underestimate the potential for an $SPX rally to new highs into June. Sale by date is no later than June 11th (ie. have an important turn on my Gann charts then).
As for health, as you say, when you don't have it you appreciate it the most.
GLGT Doc.
cheers,
john
http://www.sentienttrader.com
OT - hi DowDeva,
My goal is to stay out of hospitals this year. That could be prove to be challenging. I'm still on a good dose of prednisone and everytime I back it off the same symptoms reappear. TWT.
But there are worse fates. Good health is golden. It also gives you great perspective when you are grasping for it.
I wish you the best.
cheers,
john
P.S. Have you given up on Hurst? Or do you find it redundant to keep the course material. I don't think I will ever part with my copy.
$SPX Hurst
Today was likely a 2.5 week low for the $SPX (count 12-14 trading days from last low). A 10 week low is due later in May. While the larger 20 and 40 week cycles are pointing up, the 18 month cycle is now pointing down. So I would expect a choppy market as the market slowly tops out here in the coming weeks. Commodities (oil, copper, gold, silver) are leading as are emerging markets. The Toronto market is not healthy either.
Silver reversal
I was ready for it too. Very nice
India Hurst Cycles
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=62765854
hi slinky,
I'm done with longs from here for a while. I don't like the look of many other markets while the $SPX has traded to new highs. A 5 and 10 week nest of lows is due later in May (although Sentient is not so sure right now). I may just go golfing for the next few months and shut off the computer. I expect very choppy trading as the markets work towards the next 18 month cycle lows due late this year.
Also it will be interesting to see if we form a high to the 40 week cycle right here so near the 40 week low. That would be bearish once the print low of the recent 40 week cycle is taken out to the downside.
cheers,
john
India Hurst Cycles
hi Lee,
I'm glad for you that you are considering the Hurst Cycles course and Sentient Trader. As slinky mentioned in his comment, learning the Hurst Cycle Course is the way to go. It will give you a true feel for the way cyclic price action works.
As for the cycles for the Sensex, it is starting to clear up here. We did see a bounce out of a 40 week low, but this new 40 week cycle started in Feb./March has likely peaked or will peak soon. The current phasing still shows a decline into an 18 month, 4.5 and 9 year nest of lows is due late this year.
Once the 18 month FLD (yellow line) is crossed to the downside, a target of approximately 15000 ish is possible into this low. The Sensex has been leading the U.S. markets, so it should be watched.
The view formed back in early March still holds.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=60515706
Hope that helps.
cheers,
john