Sunday, August 14, 2011 11:26:44 PM
India Hurst Cycles
The Hurst view has not changed from the last post in early May.
The Sensex is in the last 40 week cycle that should lead into an important nest of lows for the 9 year cycle on down. This analysis uses an expert model for the Sensex (first chart), although I have run past analyses with the $SPX as the reference expert model (forcing the principle of commonality onto Sentient Trader). The left edge for this run is 1/07/1997 (yahoo finance data).
The Sensex also likely made a 20 week low this past week although it is not obvious as of yet. The target into the coming major low is nominally 15000 as mentioned in May. But a lower target is likely given the large cycles coming into play.
I expect the Sensex to bottom early, before the $SPX and many other world markets make their respective 9 year lows. I also expect a higher low versus the late 2008 lows.
Hope that helps.
cheers,
john
The Hurst view has not changed from the last post in early May.
The Sensex is in the last 40 week cycle that should lead into an important nest of lows for the 9 year cycle on down. This analysis uses an expert model for the Sensex (first chart), although I have run past analyses with the $SPX as the reference expert model (forcing the principle of commonality onto Sentient Trader). The left edge for this run is 1/07/1997 (yahoo finance data).
The Sensex also likely made a 20 week low this past week although it is not obvious as of yet. The target into the coming major low is nominally 15000 as mentioned in May. But a lower target is likely given the large cycles coming into play.
I expect the Sensex to bottom early, before the $SPX and many other world markets make their respective 9 year lows. I also expect a higher low versus the late 2008 lows.
Hope that helps.
cheers,
john
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