Short Term Trading Member Forum

[SilentOne]

hi Doc,

Not sure why ST favors the April low. Does ST offer reasons why April is a better choice?

Sentient Trader is an automated software with fairly tight Hurst rules set as parameters. I can guide ST by choosing a left edge (which includes a major low - creates some bias), or I can choose to input an expert model which ST will use as reference. But I cannot fix any particular lows (eg. 18 month lows). ST runs its spectral analysis and then assigns a phasing that it likes best. No explanations are given, but as a Hurst technician, one should try to interpret and understand the process and some of the pitfalls that can be encountered.

Here are some ST views, some with March as a 40 week low, and some not. These are all variations of $SPX analyses of the same data but with manipulation as described below. I hope this illustrates what I am saying.

One thing that is striking though is the right translation of the previous 18 month cycle. Then consider the same right translation we are seeing for the coming drop into what should be a 4.5 and 9 year low. This should give Hurst technicians some pause.

cheers,

john

$SPX ST with no expert model, 1990 left edge (ie. data starts in 1990) current view:



Note the placement of the 9 year low on March 2009.


$SPX ST with no expert model, 2009 left edge (ie. data starts in 2009):



$SPX ST with airedale expert model, 1990 left edge (ie. data starts in 1990) - ST has struggled with this phasing in recent months:



Note the placement of the 9 year low due late 2011 (even into 2012).