Here's an update from this past winter. As posted at the iHub forum:
First the long view monthly back to 1995. ST still agrees with the airedale phasing discussed above.
Here's the weekly for this 18 month cycle. Note the nest of lows due in May to early to mid June. Given we are in the first 18 month cycle for the USD index off the last 4.5 year low, I would expect cycle periods to be slightly shorter or near typical averages. Thus the early May is a strong candidate for the actual 18 month low as gold and silver blew off into into important tops.
Here are the Sentient views using an expert model as reference.
Sentient agrees with this and is projecting a pullback but then a renewed rally to start in the coming days. FLDs for the 2.5 week through 40 week are aligned in a downward cascade position and projections for higher targets have been given based on the 10 week FLD. But we'd need to see the 20 week FLD crossed to the upside for confirmation.
So from a phasing viewpoint, and from what we would expect in terms of cycle periods to run to average lengths at this time, a nest of lows for the 80 week cycle look likely, and if not with the early May low, then very imminent.
On a daily view, we see the potential for a nest of lows very clearly. We may see a double bottom for the USD index, or simply a pullback into a 5 week low before a rally resumes. The 10 week FLD should provide support.
Here's a closer look at the FLDs:
And finally ST shows the FLD pattern and possible price path needed to reached the targets triggered. Also note that new lows for the USD index would disrupt the cascade pattern that is setup now and put into question the bullish USD outlook for the next 6 months.
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