Chart Ideas

[SilentOne]

Gold Peaks Analysis

hey Scott,

I'll stick with gold as silver is too tricky.

All I see in the precious metal side is lots of risk to the downside. Based on peaks analysis for gold (counting months peak to peak), there are basically two cycles two follow in the big picture. There is the 61 (+/-2) month cycle peak to peak marked by the orange triangles at the top of the chart, and there is the 20 month (+/-2) indicated by the yellow triangles. Whenever we see the 20 month peak, we get some very smart corrections. When the 60 month peaks, we get a crapola market for gold and gold stocks that lasts for many months. The last such peak was back in 2006. For long term investors in mining stocks, the PM market did nothing but cause pain for 3 years after that May 2006 top.

So my read is that we are very late in the cycle and there is always the chance that gold could make one more run. But I don't see it and I am more focused on what the USD is about to do.

Hope that gives you some perspective.

cheers,

john

A status of the various peak cycles is listed below per Sentient Trader:

S L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -2 cycles)
The 20.5M CYCLE component of S L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -3 cycles), and accelerating.
The 47.4w CYCLE component of S L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -2 cycles)
The 23.4w CYCLE component of S L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -3 cycles), but decelerating.
The 92.3d CYCLE component of S L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -2 cycles)
The 47.3d CYCLE component of S L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -2 cycles)
The 22.5d CYCLE component of S L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -4 cycles), and accelerating.
The 11.1d CYCLE component of S L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -4 cycles), and accelerating.
The 5.5d CYCLE component of S L is currently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -5 cycles), and accelerating.
A shorter cycle than that selected would have been the ideal cycle to trade, however because of the weakness (low amplitude) of that cycle, I would recommend trading a longer cycle.
The pre-dominant cycle is the ideal trading cycle, with an average potential of 38.4% per half-cycle. This equates to 76.8% because of leverage settings.
As you have chosen a shorter cycle than this to trade, I would recommend that you change the trading cycle, or change the leverage in the Trading Settings by using the Tools|Trade Settings|Edit menu. To allow the trading cycle to be changed automatically in circumstances like this, change the "Allow Sentient Trader to adjust trading cycle" option

CURRENT FLD PATTERN PROJECTION:
Price is currently moving UP (last close 1527.8), in an active FLD pattern cascading UPWARDS. It is possible that the first sequence of the FLD pattern has already been fulfilled, by the high of 1533.7 on 25/05/2011 which would indicate that the second, DOWNWARD sequence of the pattern is now in progress.
The first FLD pattern sequence (ref #0) projects a price movement UP to a target of 1657.24 by about 31/05/2011. and might still if in fact this sequence was not fulfilled (it was 3.6% short)
The second FLD pattern sequence (ref #1) projects a price movement DOWN to a target of 1369.07 by about 06/07/2011. This move would imply a 4-tier cascade of price crosses below the 5 day to 47 day FLDs (est: 28/05/2011 & level: 1527.15) . This price move breaks below the 92 day, and the 47 day, and the 22 day, and the 11 day, and the 5 day, and the 47 week VTL implying that the peak yet to be formed, or possibly the peak on 02/05/2011 is the expected peak of the 20 month cycle.

Sentient Trader

The long view - monthly





3 year view - weekly