Chart Ideas

[SilentOne]

GE Hurst Cycles Analysis

Here's a look GE, one of the "Generals" of the DOW stocks. It is always a good idea to follow this stock and see what it is doing for clues on the overall market.

I'll start with GE's long term view on a monthly basis. The first chart is Sentient on its own (no expert model, no commonality):



This next chart is Sentient running with my $SPX expert model as reference. The two outputs agree and I like the "look" as well.



If this phasing analysis is correct, GE is likely to retest its 2009 lows as we head into the next nest of lows due for the 9 year cycle (4.5 year, 18 month etc.). This means that a bearish trend is likely to develop very soon. There is probably Hurst Cycle based evidence that this may be happening now.

I am satisfied with the ST output using the $SPX expert model, so let me continue with it from here.

Here is a look at the weekly:



This analysis suggests that the last 40 week low arrived in March 2011 (Japanese Earthquake/Tsunami). If this is true, then there is already evidence that GE has entered a bearish trend.

This view shows how an important nest of lows is due for the stock either late this year or into 2012.

Here is a look at the daily:



The 40 week FLD has already been crossed to the downside, which is very early in this 40 week cycle. The 40 wk FLD has generated a target of ~$17. Price has yet to achieve this level.

Here is a closer look at the daily.



Note that price has broken below the 40 week low level of March, which is a bearish sign from a cycle point of view. Price has also broken below that last 10 week cycle low which was likely in late May. These two failures help to confirm that a bearish trend has developed for GE. The next 20 week low is due late July or early August. GE could trend down into a low until that timeframe, and then rally once more before making another top before another decline into the major nest of lows due later this year or into 2012. The difficult thing to judge here will be the time translation that might occur this summer for the market in general and GE.

cheers,

john

http://www.sentienttrader.com/