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jglider,
Congrats on stepping up as the new moderator. I'll hold on as assistant unless any one else is willing to come forward and take the number two spot.
cheers,
john
New Moderator is Needed!
Hi All,
This board is in need of a new moderator. I have been facing a severe health issue in the last month and I am withdrawing from posting occasionally at various public forums.
However I will be dedicating my time and effort to the Hurst Cycles Forum created by David Hickson of Sentient Trader. You will know where to find me and I will look out for anyone interested in taking over this board. My name is John Oestreich and the avatar used at this new forum is joestreich.
http://forum.hurstcycles.com/c/analysis
There is a lot of history here and I credit Bob Chonski (airedale 88), Echo and others for helping me get on my Hurst Cycles journey.
Best wishes to all,
john
Gold Hurst Cycles Webinar
Hurst Cycles Analysis of Natgas
Posted today.
http://hurstcycles.com/natural-gas-ng-and-qg/
cheers,
john
Some $SPX Hurst thoughts shared ...
http://hurstcycles.com/7-year-cycle-update/#tc-comment-title
cheers,
john
Hi Oddlot,
An important cycle low arrived for US markets in Q1 (nested 4.5 and 9 year Hurst cycle low). I have to be bullish and optimistic there and buy pullbacks. Market breadth and internals have confirmed an important low for stocks. Now we need to see price advance into next year.
The USD is likely to be strong and actually supportive in my view, enhancing money flows to US equities, as has been the case since 2013. I had speculated early last year that any correction in US equities had to come with a weakening dollar. That did occur as the USD has made a sideways move and so has the major US indices.
And I think a firm USD will likely keep commodities in check and gold is likely to be the odd man out for now. There will be tradeable rallies in the PM space. Hope that offers enough clarity.
cheers,
john
USD Index Long Term Cycles
One of the reasons why I am skeptical that gold has started a new bull market (ie. multi-year) is the USD and its status ...
cheers,
john
http://hurstcycles.com/usd-index-long-term-cycles-2/#sthash.HEHQI2fq.dpbs
hi POKERSAM,
Someone over at TT pointed out this post. Great analysis. I see the same long term conundrum with cycles.
cheers,
john
The $TSX is up 11.5% off last weeks lows ...
Hurst Analysis of the $SPX, $TSX, EWC, EWG, $WTIC, CDNUSD
David and I recorded this session (see link below) early yesterday discussing various markets. We start with the $SPX and work our way to the $TSX, EWC, EWG, $WTIC, CDNUSD, and back to the $SPX. Hurst cycles is a very powerful method of analyzing markets and I have been tracking the progression here that started in late 2014. GLGT.
cheers,
john
The recording of Monday's Hurst Trading Room Live webinar is now available here:
I've been looking for a 22 month cycle low for oil. It is a big cycle. Last one was January 2014. It is very long in the tooth. If crude can catch a bid here, markets are going up for weeks. If crude can't get over $30 and stay over that level. It will be bearish elsewhere.
cheers,
john
Crude oil is going to crash??
Gulp. I finally see what could be coming. Crude oil is going to crash (which will finally crash everything else). First to ~18 (the 2002 low), then lower still later this year to the 1999 low (~11???). There’s no sign of a bottom here as we approach a 20 month cycle low. The $20 level will likely happen in the not to distant future? Does this seem even possible? If crude can’t rise above $30 here on the March contract next month, there’s no where to go but down.
cheers,
john
PS There is no fundamental reason for it to go up right here. Not one ...
$SPX long term analysis
If you've got the time, here is a look at the long term analysis of the $SPX. David's discussion of my analysis starts about 31.30 min. David gives a good commentary and his view from a Hurst point of view. If you have a serious interest in Hurst cycles, this should be worth your while. If not, move along. :)
cheers,
john
Hi tech,
I looked at your posts before Christmas. Interesting work. Was away so did not get to reply. I see your 3 and 7 year cycles, per Hurst and Sentient Trader, more like 42ish months and 7 years. Both cycles are heading to a bottom here in the coming weeks.
I'll try to get to an update soon. Don't be in a rush just yet, but a buy is coming. Repeat of 2008? not likely. But it will be interesting to see where this ends.
cheers,
john
Link to recorded session ...
Hurst Cycles Analysis - Gold and Silver Miners
David Hickson, creator of Sentient Trader, and I will be discussing the Hurst cycles analysis of the precious metal miners. The webinar starts at 8:00am ET. If its a bit early in your timezone, have no fear it will be recorded.
Link to register below.
[url="https://hurstcycles.clickwebinar.com/hurst-trading-room-5-10-2015/register"]https://hurstcycles.clickwebinar.com/hurst-...0-2015/register[/url]
cheers,
john
Thanks. I had wondered how the US markets were going to mark a turn when the $TSX obviously had done that last year. As for the $SPX it is desperately trying to hang onto 1875 (/ES) for support, which was the open of the biggest volume bar last Oct. (15th). Because we went down this week on even bigger volume on Monday, it is unlikely to hold as support. The next level down is 1846 (short term) on the /ES which is the close on Oct. 15th, and then the October lows. I will update my cyclic phasing soon. For the moment however, I don't see the next 20 week cycle bottoming until the mid-October timeframe. The major low for the 4.5 and 9 year Hurst cycles (bear in mind that they run much shorter in time these days) is likely Jan. 2016 with possible retests in the spring. Too early to say with certainty. Lets see how we head into October.
cheers,
john
re: $TSX Hurst Cycles Analysis
I posted an analysis on the $TSX with various signposts worth watching in February this year. It seems various markets ($TSX index, TSX financials, TSX energy etc. making new lows) have confirmed the true cyclic picture and now we wait for a conclusion for larger cycles to complete their lows (Hurst 4.5 and 9 year, actual more like 42 months and 7ish yrs).
http://hurstcycles.com/tsx-toronto-stock-exchange-2/#sthash.ew8ebEjE.dpbs
Most noteworthy is the break lower in EWG ...
cheers,
john
A Rare Technical Pattern ...
:)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/02/a-rare-technical-analysis-pattern/
$TSX Hurst Cycles Analysis
http://hurstcycles.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=9460&action=edit&message=1
cheers,
john
PS Doing well. Thanks Lisa.
Dowdeva,
This is not a very bullish looking 20 week cycle (from the Oct. lows) which is even more apparent today. And this is the start of an 18 month cycle.
As I mentioned to someone last night, this is not going to be an easy year by any means. GLGT.
cheers,
john
$USB US 30 YR Treasury Bonds
Spent a lot of time mulling this over recently.
cheers,
john
http://hurstcycles.com/us-30-year-bonds/#sthash.v7VgiBJD.4Divjr1V.dpbs
Oddlot, Yes current rally = Oct 2007 high once it ends ... We should go down into a Dec low from there.
Hi Oddlot,
Thanks for your post. I've not had time to update for $SPX. However, I suspect the $SPX is actually making a 9 year top as soon as next week. TWT.
cheers,
john
Hi rab120,
That is not my precise outlook, as in my view we can top out at anytime here. The $SPX has by many measures reached its 9 year cyclic target (9 yr FLD). I posted in the comments section a revised target that has already been met using shorter cycle periods.
http://hurstcycles.com/spx-9-year-fld-target-of-2150/#sthash.HPLpAb4E.dpbs
As for buying here, I can't do it. I am just waiting for a top to transpire.
Hope that helps.
cheers,
john
The Next 18 Month Hurst Cycle
http://hurstcycles.com/the-next-18-month-hurst-cycle/#sthash.djiZMVeH.dpbs
cheers,
john
$SPX Hurst Update 9 Year FLD Target
http://hurstcycles.com/spx-9-year-fld-target-of-2150/#sthash.TTJSYbxG.dpbs
cheers,
john
ES 1846.5 is the level. Need closes above this to see the possibility of a good low, possibly a 10 week low for a bounce. I base this on yesterday's large volume trade which is the highest day trade since August 2011. Yesterday closed at ES 1846.5. We could trade here lower and test 1800 until a low forms or not ...
Same deal for the Russel 2000. The level to watch is 1065 ...
I'll have to look at my Hurst $SPX charts today for an update.
cheers,
john
No doubt we are very oversold here on some indices like the TSX. The bounce and reversal will be sharp. I note that the Bradley has a sharp turn due tomorrow ... (-/+ 3 days?).
cheers,
john
Hi D,
There is an 10 week low due shortly but with a failed 40 week low (likely occurred early August), this current move is expanding its scope. I can't tell timing wise where we might see a bounce, but I am hesitant to make many bets in October.
The TSX looks really worrisome as they are selling the oil sector relentlessly. It looks and feels like a major top for energy as the move down is similar to what happened in 2008.
cheers,
john
4 Year Year Cycle High
http://hurstcycles.com/4-year-cyclical-high/#sthash.TjOldYbF.dpbs
Good to see you Lisa. Hope you are keeping well. See my volume thoughts in the comments section here.
http://hurstcycles.com/the-g-category-interaction/#comment-6565
cheers,
john
Hi Dowdeva,
$TSX Hurst Cycles Analysis
It has been some time since I posted on the $TSX Hurst cycles. I think my last $TSX post here was back in 2011 just about when my health hit the skids. Things are much better today. TG.
If you look at the last post I linked here, it seems to me that the $TSX major cycles (4.5 year) will follow the Kitchin cycle referenced here. With that in mind read my latest Hurst blog post here:
http://hurstcycles.com/tsx-toronto-stock-exchange/#sthash.wpSt3A1t.dpbs
cheers,
john
$SPX Hurst comment
See comments section here:
http://hurstcycles.com/spx-hurst-coming-40-week-low/#sthash.VC5XAvwT.dpbs
Hope you have a great Labour Day weekend.
cheers,
john
$SPX Hurst Update
So much for that sell signal.
Short update. Be back in a few weeks.
http://hurstcycles.com/spx-hurst-coming-40-week-low/#sthash.ePLqgaC8.dpbs
cheers,
john
Hi Peter,
I think David Hickson provides some very good analysis here. My preference is his first option and that the late March low was a 10 week low (which has failed).
http://hurstcycles.com/looking-ahead-4-april-2014/#sthash.m9GP29R8.dpbs
A 5 week low is due late next week and then from there we see how we head into a 20 week low due late May. I misread the significance of the early Feb. low (it likely involved a cycle larger than the 20 week cycle) and thus why markets have held up so well. But the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are giving you the tell that we will see cyclic failures ahead.
cheers,
john
No just watch it among many things. I'm a swing trader and play ETFs and options mostly.
cheers,
john
Tuesday's low ES 1831 when it breaks there will be a torrent of selling. Not sure if it will be today. Nasdaq, Russell and Biotech are leading ...