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VTLE and EGY are both getting a little warmer today
And your thesis on timing the crude rebound is holding up pretty strongly
Cautious and nimble is my current position
spec
Yep, high GTC sell orders is one way to skin a cat (or obstruct the short selling)
For a minute there in yesterday’s trading, I wasn’t sure if .007 was going to flip into a .0069 or slap that .008 ASK
Slap the ASK and set the shorts on FIRE!
Just smoldering is a lot better than sinking so that’s what I’m seeing
Like watching molasses flow uphill
Tick tock
WTI climbs to $79 and Nat gas to $2.85 on a generally positive market day
I have faith in good people and there are some good and brilliant people at work around the globe to better our world
Cheers
spec
VTLE finally getting some respect
As energy in general is too
Overall my general view is to be heavily weighted towards cash and very selective in everything else
At least until mid year or Q3 is my best guess for a current plan
spec
Someone is soaking up shares smartly and deliberately (patiently)
Still GSPE lifts generally higher
Considering how “risk-off” the current situation is in micro cap world, no volume available for sale at these levels
JMO
Cheers
spec
Thank you WG, another great playlist and I really feel the vibe “diamonds taking shape”
Oil and gas trends are upward on China economic headlines (do we really trust the accuracy there?)
Mixed metrics here so volatility is the watchword
GulfSlope is still in a great position for investments into domestic oil & gas exploration
Isn’t this the M&A season?
If GSPE is going to bid on leases, I think they will almost certainly hit a disclosure threshold for an 8-K definitive agreement before the auction
Tick tock (the sound, not the malware app)
Cheers
spec
VTLE is a puzzling trade like I am missing something
And EGY manipulation is evident in the morning beat downs
Wall Street works like Bruno the physical therapist, push and smash everything to the maximum range one direction
Wait 2 seconds to give the illusion of calm
Then yank everything back the other direction as far as it will go
Your money clip falls out of your pocket, Bruno pockets the bills and hands it back to you
spec
WTI drifts higher ~$77 Nat gas continues to rise from the extreme lows
GSPE gets just a few more ticks on the clock. bid-whacking a tiny amount just gets soaked up
Float appears locked up tightly and rational views on energy issues are being spoken
Enough with words
Drill Tau2
Cheers
spec
Runup to the lease sale?
March 29
BOEM GOM lease sale #259
WTI remarkably flat mid $70’s
Nat Gas bouncing off record lows Henry Hub currently $2.60 ish
Geopolitics smoking hot and less than cordial, watch your 6 at any critical infrastructure (just my take on current trends on risks)
spec
Dollar volume is low for sure, but those bigger blocks today were all slaps on the ASK
The bid has been mildly bullish trending for a few weeks and the cheapest shares have been soaked up
Somewhere there is an appetite that isn’t satisfied
Cheech and Chong munchies?
Or Whales feeding?
It’s nothing yet, except that it’s the preferred direction
Insiders are loaded from early on and don’t need to be front running material news and risking the legal consequences
Just meetings or discussions can spur interested people who have no idea WHAT was discussed
Grab a few mil on a good vibe or a smile when they left the lobby? they’re cheap, no foul
If it’s more, hang on!
Have a great weekend!
spec
GSPE up 50% to just short of a penny
An emerald in the Red Sea
Billowing smoke, sure looks like there’s a fire hidden somewhere
Penny candy anyone?
spec
8’s are gone, .006 x .009 is the spread
and as fast as I tapped this message …
there appears a tiny 10k ASK at .008
Sooo tempted
spec
Hmmmmm, a slap on that lovely ASK sends it to crazy 8 land
Wasn’t me
spec
Mixed metrics are all the rage and expectations are overpowering the current “deep dive” data points
Cherry picking the data can paint a colorful image of the robust American National GDP and consumption projections
The optimistic me says to see beyond the short term and grasp the incentive to navigate through these near field challenges (most notably the war on fossil fuel sentiment)
In the GSPE market space a notable event with the CENAQ SPAC from a while back - now trading as Verde VGAS
Somewhere, someone bungled an algorithm and the tape was gonzo, trading temporarily froze when L2 went off the rails
Take a look, it was crazy for a while and nothing except the expected ticker change a few days ago to explain the swings
It triggered a few alerts and one small sell for me
I have similar set of alerts on GulfSlope
One will trigger my favorite playlist
Living for that day
spec
It sure feels like everything has gone risk off for a little while now
Fund managers selling everything down to where it can’t hurt ya if things turn nasty?
I’m with that vibe, but have confidence in the ones that I know and love
Love is for humans though, so stocks are objectively untrustworthy and unpredictable
I’m batting a pretty good average for both, mostly due to incredible luck
The Fed dancing on black ice is center stage
How many times can Powell say “pain” before we believe him?
spec
LNG posted impressive numbers today but imagine how much berrer off everyone (including shareholders) would be if the crazy gyrations of geopolitics would just step aside
My only hesitation in LNG is the fragility of the midstream infrastructure in a world that has seen a dramatic uptick in targeting of energy infrastructure
You mention the "damage done" in delaying Freeport and it is a very valid point
The damage done across the country by bone-headed, partisan, power-grabbers, is unforgivable
Impeach whoever is writing Joe's script
Then we can start moving toward prosperity again
spec
Good call on VTLE strong results and cash flow
I think their emphasis on the oily end of their opportunities is making a big difference and will be rewarded in share price
As you noted, their low cost of production is a firm foundation to work from
Cheers,
spec
A push to the right and no noise on a selloff in the broader market … could be a lot worse
The bid finally developed a glimmer of light but for most of the day a nearly 50% spread with no significant numbers showing at the ASK
WTI sideways mid $70’s and Nat Gas record lows ~$2.10
For the moment, vinyl chloride is getting more hate than oil and gas
Hedgehog mode until some uncertainty is resolved is my status
Well, that and a few dreams
GLTA
spec
Kudos to Kraken Robotics- top honors in the TSX Venture 50 for 2023
https://www.tsx.com/news?id=944&year=2023
Kraken takes the highest ranking in the technology category of the list
Two things will make this company’s share price rock 2023
1- the military contracts begin to hit the top line in a big way
Defense spending is the most recession-proof revenue stream ever
2- Dilution ends as capital needs and founder greeds fade
Clearly there is a selling pressure from early investors and founders bleeding shares into a thin market for the stock
High valuations on early-stage companies are extremely vulnerable to this kind of negativity
The first is in good shape, defense contracts are locked in and future revenues are increasing
The second is going to be the determining factor to determine whether Kraken does well in 2023, or whether it has a remarkable run
spec
Another positive development for subsea survey buisiness
https://www.science.org/content/article/u-s-proposal-would-make-oil-companies-look-shipwrecks-they-drill
spec
HOD close, .007 nice
Bond is back!
Ain’t gonna complain about that at all
“grumble …grumble…. no dang volume … grumble”
If it was just static noise, there would be something bigger than that very thin ASK
Enjoy your long weekend
Cheers
spec
I guess it’s not just me in the camp of “so many screwed up disasters, swamp fires, and market manipulations to juggle into a market analysis”
Just mentioned by a very credentialed economist, “It’s amazing to me right now that so many really smart analysts, and I talk with many, just shake their heads and admit they have no idea where this leads, it’s the most difficult market fundamentals mix to navigate”
The droopy oil valuations seem crazy shortsighted to me but maybe I assign too much premium to geopolitical unrest (nice word for multiple hot wars across the globe)
It feels like something is going to break
I just don’t know what breaks first
Whoever is writing the words for Joe’s teleprompter is playing with fire and everyone in the world who hasn’t been reprogrammed is nervous and/or pissed off
The same folks who were saying “transitory inflation” are now saying “soft landing” and “pivot on rates later this year”
I guess this weekend is a perfect opportunity to celebrate our Presidents who have been great leaders for America
I will be looking forward to having one again
I’m ready for the Tuesday start for the next leg up in the downtrodden energy sector
spec
A tiny sliver of bright green against a backdrop of the Red Sea
GSPE up 27% on 10K shares total for the day so far
An oasis?
Or a mirage?
Thirsty?
Yes!
007 in the house on the ASK (just a tiny amount showing)
Fossil fuels still under attack, now directors are being sued by climate activist organizations
spec
(Question- is anyone else having issues with ihub latency for months now? Seems like every click takes 15 seconds to load)
I have been using the mobile app for TDAmeritrade and thinkorswim
Desktop thinkorswim gives a better view
But yeah, it’s looking poised to launch
No shares shaking loose
spec
PS -WTI dipping into the $75’s and gas down to $2.30’s currently
If we get some volume, it’ll get loud really quickly
As I look at that sentence again, it makes total sense
But seriously, L2 has my attention on that super thin ASK
Everything is in place and just needs a tangible nugget of progress to light the fuse for GulfSlope
Cheers
spec
Apparently, a few months notice of a ticker change is insufficient warning for TDA/Schwab
The various platforms, apps, gadgets, wizmo-gizmo’s didn’t cope well with the transition
It’s going to get sorted out but it’s annoying to miss out on a 30% pop because your trading tools are haywire
spec
Good morning, I wanted to get a chance to chew on a few bits
But my read on it is - the three bids still active
Market seems to be showing a firm bottom
spec
Super quiet with just a few small trades
No GSPE chatter detected elsewhere
The ASK is still super thin so no significant quantity of shares are getting shaken loose
WTI holding $79
Nat gas still in the mid 2’s at $2.60
Tick tock
spec
It feels like the overall market is flowing cash out of equities for a couple months now (a few talking heads have been trumpeting it too)
Getting defensive to weather.whatever recession we will tumble through in the next 12-18 months
I’m onboard and prepared for that shift too but I haven’t been scaling back on energy because I think oil, in particular, will outperform again this year
It would take a series of improbable events tho align in order for there to be a situation where WTI would be under $75-80 for long
Much more likely that demand growth will proceed at a somewhat slower pace and prices will hinge on production and midstream dynamics
Stalling our domestic energy sector was a stupid move by the swamp creatures and permanently damaged our nation’s economy
We will recover, but the loss cannot be restored
And we don’t start a real recovery for domestic energy until the house can make tangible progress on drilling, pipelines, and refineries
So many disastrous policies, not enough ducks to stamp out the fires
An injury has me sidelined a bit
I’ll call it a skiing accident because it doesn’t sound as stupid as the real story
And my rotator cuff doesn’t know the difference anyway
I am anxious to see your short theory play out, you’re most likely correct
spec
A one-pinky slap took out the .005 ASK
Super thin ASK
Half-penny is the bid now
Volume is only a whisper
WTI - $80 again but Nat gas still $2.50
spec
EGY - where do you think the divi will be?
If it’s anything like the rate they talked about, it’ll get some new shareholders onboard
spec
Thoughts on Thursday - Energy Supercycle Averted?
Snooze alert, long-winded market perspective ahead
There's a crackling fire in the woodstove, rain pattering on the roof, the ice is too thin for fishing, and I have 1 bar of cellular signal .....
Is the energy supercycle a myth?
was it side-lined? .... is it finished?? Is that all there was?
Has Covid changed the fundamental nature of mankind so much that past records can no longer be relied upon to project trends at all?
Nope, the changes recently sweeping throughout the globe are transformative, but Covid is just a small (and recent) chunk of the crap-tide
The 800-pound gorilla that nobody wants to look directly in the eye ....
... the inflamed boil, a pustule that's only going to get worse ....
... and will eventually either burst (in the most repulsive way possible) or cause the demise of the host ...
... is the weaponization of climate science and various additional societal fears (insert EVERY campaign topic here)
... all for political power which has become the slush fund for career politicians (and everyone in their orbit)
We're "three legs deep" in a proxy war (actually several, but one dominates the checkbook and headlines) and cornpop has nukes
.... just things to keep an eye on ...
Time to chop some wood and hope that our society can lance this boil in every affected country
We can steer a path that empowers everyone to live a better, more secure life
Defund the swamp, decentralize power, Drill Tau2
Cheers
spec
A bit of a lift for crude and nat gas today
… must be a sudden discovery that the supply side has far more instability as compared with the inevitable demand growth globally
Well, that’s my idle attempt at sarcasm
Cruise, snooze, or booze till there’s news
spec
COP got kneecapped on their Willow project
A change in late-stage project permitting injects additional costs and reduces the breadth of potential targets
So, the effect is - “sure, you have an approval just as long as you only drill a portion of the locations”….
…. “and those are still pending our final review of these new additional carbon/climate calculations that you must provide”
These actions are impeding the upstream investment that is so desperately needed …
By our entire nation
GulfSlope is in a perfect location to be the channel of investment to that goal
Currently though, the tide is slack
spec
Took profits today at $195 on a smallish position that was picked up during the tax loss selling of Dec ‘22
$125 to $195 or about a 55% gain in about 6 weeks, not bad
I wish I had bought more but Elon was getting a load of flak and I know that isn’t finished yet
GL to current TSLA longs, I do think $300 is in the cards for 2023
Cheers
spec
An analyst just took a flamethrower to the share price with his verbal assault game during the CC Q&A (first question)
The intonation and snarkiness was only partly covered in a veil of fake sincerity
So, you cherry pick one metric and feign a dramatic shock of disappointment just to drive the price down in order to cover your short (or to pick up an initial position)
Is that the game now dude??
I wonder how much of a short position he was tasked with defending
Make no mistake, the management of CLFD is top notch and Clearfield continues to perform remarkably
Cheri's guidance is ALWAYS on the modest/realistic end of the curve
Pretty absurd to have a selloff of this magnitude after an earnings beat and growth curve that was just laid down
Smart money buy time
spec
Recap the past several days -
The bid began to falter on Friday and hasn’t been strong enough since then to maintain momentum
Without volume there is no solid direction …
…just filling the tax sale divot
Market is jittery, especially the energy sector
One solid ground truth to fact-check the market manipulators - -
-the juggernaut of global oil demand WILL NOT BE TAMED by more government intervention
spec
Indeed, this will be our year
ASKs will get slapped and shorts will get burned
No worries, I know first aid
Thanks for the great playlist
hoping to see this rumble turn into a bigger push higher as markets digest the performance projected for the fossil fuel sector
For many, plays like GSPE are "spillover" plays when you've got the energy sector generally covered but you're looking for a bit of high risk/reward exposure
If GOM exploration gets some easing of permitting (in actions, not words) we could get really crazy, really fast
WTI $79
Nat Gas falls further to $2.60
OPEC+ leaves quotas unchanged
Cheers,
spec
Big market slide into the red today
WTI slides under $78
Nat gas in the gutter $2.70
GSPE hasn’t shaken loose many shares considering the recent upward push
ASK is still extremely thin but I only was able to glance a few times
I’ve got a custom alert set for GSPE with volume and price settings
If it triggers, an audio alarm goes off …
…it’s the sound of a fishing reel screaming “hooked up!”
Hoping to hear that sound soon
Cheers
spec
Kraken SAS on a REMUS AUV (Dec 2022 release)
Kraken Awarded $50+ Million Navy Contract for Royal Canadian Navy Minehunting Program https://t.co/PMj0mOFnB3 pic.twitter.com/S08I3E4zPV
— Kraken Robotics (@KrakenRobotics) December 7, 2022