The pivot that Harold Hamm is suggesting is inevitable
The only question is …(or “uestion” if you don’t believe in Q)
If you consider that GulfSlope might simply be an “access vehicle” for private equity to enter the upstream fossil energy sector…
… and with a legit pool of experience and knowledge of the art of exploratory drilling ..
I think the possibility that there is a deal that can be inked in a very “responsive” tempo ..
.. is worthy of consideration
WTI hanging on at ~
Another great playlist from WG, thank you
Hi optimist pirate,
Your big project will turn out terrific my vibe is Gulfslope will too! The rest of my stay will be among underwater gardens and BFFs. Our gams move faster than a cidomo well at least mine does I’m exactly where I’m supposed to be. Here’s to more fulfilled and purposeful lives.
Thank you, but I haven’t really been dialed in on realtime trading for a little while now
I’ve just barely been keeping tabs on GulfSlope, L2 patterns, and the general market conditions for the upstream sector
I agree that crude is likely going higher in the near term (with a bumpy chart and “rowing”) and it brings inflation and economic slowdown with it
Of course, my crude price predictions have been pretty uneven so far
I’ll be online and posting even less for few months due to a big project that I am currently working on … but I have alerts set if the volume or price get sparky
I think it’ll all work out amazingly if GulfSlope can hook up with the right merger and a good team. Time will tell.
An optimistic pirate at heart
Cheers and GLTA
Thank you for keeping on top of things. Always interesting when reading your posts.
Yes, the tide is out but our GSPE boat is safely in the channel.
I feel that it is very likely WTI will hit $100 before EOY. Hopefully it will not stay there that long, because of the potential for an economic slowdown.
In the meantime, crude prices say being in the oil game is where the money is.
Yep, it trades like there’s a very small number of sellers, possibly only one or two in recent days
Sets of offers through several MMs, then a blank day or two
Could be a broker assist trade, forced liquidation, or I could be mistaken (rare but it happens)
In any case, the tide is way out
The Fed is draining M2, SPR drained, gasoline strategic reserves drained, and WTI continues to march higher, currently >$91
The market environment for upstream M&A continues to improve (except for the softness in commercial credit availability, the sucking sound of M2 shrinkage)
The low, low tide ….
Sitting on the dock of the bay ….
I know the sky will be a brilliant blue
And the tide will rise
Keep the bilges dry
WTI seems content for the moment at upper $80’s
Based on recent history I expect a cycle back to low $80 within a week or two based on some sort of “shocking” headline
Oil platform retaken by Ukraine military, more Iranian crude shipments seized, more domestic oil leases cancelled
Outside of the oil sector many metrics are far from normal
Consumer debt levels, commercial credit availability, housing affordability, violent crime etc ….
Gabonese people decided their last election was a sham and the military took control of the country. I don’t see any lawsuits filed there.
It’s a turbulent world and I am just trying to keep my caboose on the track
Financing for exploration is probably scarce at this time but a deal that includes producing assets would position well for the inevitable uptick in GOM upstream
Still mostly off grid
After sorting through the mumbo jumbo that is the EIA’s Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) for WTI, I am left with the following observations which may be of particular interest to energy investors.
Firstly, the increases are neither too high nor occurring too quickly to have serious negative repercussions on our economy. And an upward trend like this is almost always positive news. So, this is support and stability in the right direction.
The September EIA forecast for WTI ‘average’ price per barrel in 2023 and 2024 is $79.65 and $83.22, respectively. This is an increase from the prior month of 2.4% in 2023 and 1.14% in 2024.
Next, as the number one economy in the world, the US will continue to support WTI pricing due to the increasing demand for gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, electrical power generation (domestic use and global exports), etc.
In fact, the September EIA STEO forecasts World and Domestic consumption in 2024 to increase by 1.4% and 1%, respectively.
Additionally, the Congressional Budget Office’s July update to their Economic Outlook through 2025, forecasts consumer spending to “strengthen in late 2024 as interest rates decline and in 2025 as both interest rates and unemployment decline.” In the agency’s projections, real consumer spending increases by 1.1 percent in 2024, and by 2.0 percent in 2025.
And recall that OPEC will continue it’s production cuts through the end of 2023.
All in all, not bad forecasts. So perhaps prospective partners may begin to feel more confident in future energy investments.
Did WTI just hit a one year high?
This may be of interest since, with limited SPR for Joe to throw into the oil markets again, there is the likelihood that prices will fail to moderate.
Perhaps this will cause potential partners to make a deal to purchase production sooner rather than later.
With the increasing demands for fossil fuels on the horizon, and WTI prices above $87, pressures will mount for producers and investors alike to get deals done. I think this is where we should concentrate our crystal ball gazing for the best pay out.
Once we have more stable activity developing for Gulfslope Energy, the charts will become more reliable forecasting tools for GSPE shares.
While this path may not be quick, effortless, or risk free, it is my belief that this is the opportunity seasoned and successful traders seek. And there are several of those among the readers here.
As always, follow the fundamentals, manage the risk, and do not be distracted from the prize.
Pencil me in for optimistic I’ll run those numbers
Some of my GSPE playlist
WTI up >$86 as demand grows and production cuts begin to pressure prices
Whispers of government shutdown begin to echo in the hallways
I’ll just make a blanket statement on leadership, priorities, and spending - domestically, it’s more unstable than I have ever seen
All the talk of easing regulatory strangulation of the fossil fuel sector appears to be merely lip service
False allegations vs multiple smoking guns divide “we the people”
If GulfSlope can get a deal inked we’ll all be harmonizing our big American muscle car engines with peace and love
sigh, it might be sideways until then
Still determined and optimistic
The only ones working harder to make a deal than the management team are the oil producers who are trading WTI for over $85 a barrel, and the shorts that still need to cover.
Find the critical distinction between these perspectives. Those providing the cash to keep the company going have seen the evidence and found it to be compelling. They have spoken their support with large sums of money. Compare this action to those who drive the share price lower. Nothing is offered for support of them. Shareholders take all risks and all losses. And at the right price, detractors will still buy your shares.
Which way offers the best path forward? Those saying “nothing here folks” or those providing large sums of money to move ahead? Those plotting for the end, or those offering the wealth of discovery? I find it an easy choice.
Without news, the charts often document the effectiveness of the onslaught of rhetoric used by detractors to undermine the stock for their personal benefit.
But news will always trump rhetoric. My vote is to Trump.
A few light slaps on the ASK yesterday and WTI still above $81
I’ve just now recovered from last weekend (spec “weekend” is traditionally Friday morning until sometime Tuesday) so a drift higher for GSPE is a welcome sight
I see that there was a “shocking drop” in crude stockpiles :-0
Who could have seen that coming?
On top of that “surprise”, a Cat 3-4 plows through northern Florida in an area that hasn’t seen the landfall of a major hurricane in years
M&A in domestic oil & gas remains active even as rig counts fall, “capital discipline” is the buzzword in operations planning
The current population of the world is DEPENDENT on fossil fuels for the bulk of our current energy needs
Like a freight train, that’s a reality that won’t be possible to stop (or turn) abruptly
The turn of seasons, sands through the hourglass ….
Light the fuse GulfSlope
A little jiggly action
I’m skeptical but optimistic at the same time
Many hot potatoes in geopolitical terms are keeping crude markets edgy, WTI holding @$80 after a short dip lower in the past few days
Speaking of time …
It’s time to launch the weekend!
Don’t be easily manipulated and led on a divisive path in life
Chart your own way through the journey
Yep, crazy stuff going on with crude smuggling and seizures
I don’t think there’s any real smuggling in the GOM, just the transfer at sea of the seized oil as you noted
When I first read it, I thought- there’s no way to smuggle Iranian crude into the US …
…. not with the Coast Guard and DEA swarming around in their spiffy chase boats
Nope, crude not getting in
….. unless it votes D
Spec, I was checking for oil news during lunch and guess what is occurring in the GOM right now off the coast of Galveston, Tx?
Evidently a tanker carrying Iranian crude was spotted off the coast of Singapore in February 2022. The U.S. seized the embargoed cargo and transported it to Galveston, Tx in May 2023.
The crude is currently in the process of ship to ship transfer. The transfer had been delayed this long due to the U.S. Navy sending assets to the Persian Gulf after threats of retaliation from Iran.
The ship transporting the confiscated crude is owned by a company in Los Angeles. The 800,000 barrel cargo is reportedly worth $56M.
I only point this out because of your recent post referring to black market crude smuggling operations, which I assumed occurred in the GOM. Looks to be more widespread than I believed. I suppose they get away with it more often than not.
At this point WTI is holding about $81 (better than $69) and I do not expect it to ‘tank’.
Lmao…. That’s good stuff. Still a waiting game indeed. Not enough T6 fills or volume in general to try to flip the spread. Which also means it’s not being diluted at the moment. If T6 ends up bottom how will one get size? Patience will probably run out soon for those on bid
Just a matter of time imo. Let’s see.
Spec thanks for weighing in I appreciate your insight.
Very much feelin’ some of your GSPE energy. Mahalo for the heads up.
GSPE encore vibe
I don’t want to veer off into a rabbit hole of “dark pool trades”, “market maker manipulation” and “naked shorts” but I will throw this out there
To the question of - who would want a worse outcome (or claim that the sky has fallen)?
A- someone who is making money on the swing in prices (either down or on the rebound)
Yes, penny stocks get shorted
Derivatives off the tape are a way of hedging against a squeeze, writing covered calls, rolling them, etc…
Note 10 in the filing is the type of clue that can indicate the churn
Short sell, knowing you have options to cover if things go wrong
Cover on the bid as others and algorithms stumble down
A holder of a big block purchased directly (either in the beginning or recently) can drive the price down on the intention of picking up a bigger block on whatever financing is ahead on the cap raise/acquisition
Just doesn’t trade like it would if a bunch of the main holders were giving up
Nor would I think the people who are lending cash to keep the lights on, would keep doing so if they didn’t have confidence that their operations will get the required arrangements and financing for their intended deal
Gotta fly, but if any of that makes sense maybe someone can expand on it or say it in a more technical manner
Thanks Smith I enjoy reading your insight here as well as some others.
For now the team is working 14 hour days (and more) to get a critical report ready on time, so I really have not had the opportunity to get back to you with a prompt reply. But I wanted to give a response, and this is it, brief as it must be.
So, some would hope the 10-Q was worse if they were the owners of a portion of the millions of shares that were recently shorted. More shares owned that were short, more the hope for a worse 10-Q.
Perhaps one-third of all recent trades consisted of short activity. So maybe 10M shares per week? Up until the 10-Q. I lack the time to delve into this and get a firm, accurate number. Be my guest.
In my opinion, the real risk to shorts is the next time we hear from the management team, we could be getting news that will set the shares off and up.
No, I do not know when. Could be anytime though. And prices could move way up from here.
Probably about time for shorts to bite the bullet and buy shares to cover. Even if needing to pay more than desired, as looks like the case. And shares for sale are not plentiful in the volumes needed. Better get them when you can.
My advice is to stay focused on the target. Look for changes in fundamentals. And do not be easily swayed by the rhetoric of those wanting to change the perception to support their desired outcome.
Just sit tight. The near term should work out for longs.
This was not an educational post, nor was it intended as a tutorial on shorting stocks either. This was only a basic explanation of the meaning behind ‘some wanted the 10-Q to be worse’.
Good luck to you all.
Feel free to correct me where I am going wrong.
Back at it for me.
Smith why would someone hope the 10-Q was worse? Educate me.
Both you and Smith appear to be correct. It was okay with me that the lights are still on. I'm here for the long haul. There is no upside for me selling at this price not even during tax season..
I agree @smith199. I am happy to see there is still activity and effort towards making a deal happen. Also, the selloff stopping is significant to me. Perhaps the sellers realize that this fat lady hasn’t started singing yet…and this show is not quite over.
To me, it appeared that some hoped for worse. I am satisfied with how it ended up. For now anyway.
Oh wow I’ve never used this app for any of this. Thank you @smith199!
From the Investorhub site go to GSPE, News, choose Gulfslope News (10-Q).
Or go to GSPE’s Intro Box on Investorhub, scroll down to “Useful links” and choose 3rd option “Gulfslope SEC Filings”.
Either way should do it.
I have had a hard time finding the 10-Q. Etrade doesn’t send it to me anymore for some reason. Searched the internet and haven’t been able to pull it up?
They created a Nu Breed in the last couple years. A lot of sheep alerted to the scams. It’s multiplying….. they are to arrogant to stop threatening good people….
So we do what we do!!!!
Just watch what I am telling you. It’s happened for almost two years straight. It is why I started pointing out the scams they run.
I see all the buy volume was on the ask today in TOS…typically positive.
A playlist for my GSPE ohana
It will get cock blocked now that I posted semi positive about it…. Just watch
Saw .0009 on the ask this am for a second and I got excited even though the bid was .0006. Been a while since I’ve seen the ask 50% higher than the bid…then again I don’t typically trade penny stocks like this.