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None of the geopolitical tensions have eased off, on the contrary, it seems that nearly every week there’s another tick hotter
The big stuff seems to happen mostly on weekends so fingers are crossed that we don’t spiral into a giant conflagration
Domestic energy is the second biggest agenda item for the Republican platform and ending the unconstitutional war on fossil fuels will be swift
I expect the financial atmosphere for investment in energy will shift gradually until the next administration is decided ….
… then things will change at the speed of light
I hope we can keep the wheels on the bus until then
Cheers
spec
Hump day status update for energy market related geopolitical events from the last few weeks …..
… in less than 5000 words
….
Yeah, sure
It’s getting crazier and crazier
The tide has turned and the skyrocketing cost of living a joful life has begun to alarm the core families of our productive workforce
Elon Musk has boldly stepped up to declare his total rejection of intimidation …. AGAIN!
I expect that the threats and regulatory abuse will continue to escalate for all of his commercial interests
Who’s going to break the news to Joe that he has stepped out of the 2024 race?
Maybe we could just chill, put up an AI generated hologram of Brandon mumbling something incoherent, and pretend everything is fine ….
JUST FINE!!!
Sharp as ever …. (The term “sack of hammers” applies here)
WTI @$78 as global demand worries overshadowed the draw on inventories
I stated earlier that we won’t know the Democrat nominee until the last possible moment … and Kamala isn’t etched in stone yet
The several hot wars ongoing are a huge concern due to their overall trends and the historical tendency for patterns like this to escalate rapidly towards a terminal stage
Being on the cusp of another rogue nation achieving nuclear weapons capability certainly amplifies the gravity of our predicament
Pivotal times for modern society and we need competent leadership with integrity to lead our great republic
USA!
spec
Crude markets don’t seem to be trending, simply bobbing along with WTI slightly above $80
US and China demand projections cycle back and forth with traders in tow
On the market sentiment overall, it appears to be brighter
I’m sensing great determination from “we the people” to rectify what is obviously broken in our public sector, especially the upper layers
It’s bound to be slow through the summer months and I personally think the rekindling of GulfSlope’s fire won’t happen before the election is determined
Under normal circumstances, I would expect ….
…
…
Well, scrap that idea .. normal circumstances was a while back …
Uncharted territory … so I plan to exercise good judgment while living the best life possible
Hoping this stretch of road won’t be too hazardous with geopolitical issues simmering in the summer heat
I would prefer lemonade in the shade
Cheers
spec
Buyers ruled the day on today’s tape, verrry bullish movement lately
Market sentiment continues to warm up for Kraken Robotics
Cheers
spec
Market sector related -
Assassination attempt on Trump as the accelerating train wreck of the cardboard cutout administration hits new lows
I’m praying that we bounce soon and each day is more believable than the previous day
More civilized
More unified
More respectful of each other
THAT is what will make our country the proud, strong, prosperous, leader of the free world again
spec
Big move continues with volume, nice!
This company has been displaying winner quality for quite a while and the performance numbers match my high expectations
I don’t really follow any YouTube trader advice but this guy (video link below) lays out some good points about recent numbers and events
Good to go
Stand on
spec
Hump day situational awareness PSA
The biggest items related to GSPE’s market space future
Chaos exploded in domestic politics after the debate debacle
Subsequent events/interviews/statements have not resolved the problematic issues, only amplified them
Multiple nations are falling into a gravity well and everyone is wondering what flavor of reality awaits us at the other side of the wormhole
The Chevron decision is a crucial message that our Constitution recognizes the liberties of individuals and correctly asserts that the power resides in the Citizens, not dictators or presidents
The only powers of the government are those limited and defined authorities that are properly delegated to our elected officials
Yes, I believe we’re in a transitional period and hopefully it will result in a reset of our collective desires to be free of tyranny and to be allowed our pursuit of happiness
True and steadfast
spec
PS The Roman Senate was foolishly debating the gender of angels ….
…. as the Roman Empire was collapsing
First off, it’s only chatter/rumors/musing ….
But, does anyone think Anduril is a potential M&A entity??
Throwing out a hypothetical- Andril purchase/merge tiny Kraken (with all of its golden tentacles, SAS, power, RAAS ….)
To throw some color on that wild possibility-
What if Anduril acquired Kraken at a valuation about double where she’s at right now
Then make that payment to current Kraken shareholders as. 50/50 cash/stock tender offer
They would acquire the existing ticker KRKNF (if they want it, currently I don’t think Anduril shares are listed anywhere)
Kraken already has shareholder approval for the split so the shares could end up anywhere they need to put it for the transaction
So shareholders would get a cash divi at the current market valuation of their KRKNF position AND an equivalent dollar value of “new shares” of XYZ at a valuation appropriate for the ending combined entity
They have many times the financial mass to make that happen
Just an example of a hypothetical
So, does anyone else think that there is a possibility of some type of big $$ transaction featuring Anduril (with their HUGE new military contracts) at least for the battery/subsea power division ????
I never want to get so old and grumpy that I can’t hope and dream of the most perfect future
Cheers
spec
USA!
The force is strong with this one
Blazing hot at the core and has so much future
Cheers
spec
Excellent post and I agree that the Chevron ruling is a huge pivotal moment in our republic
It’s going to be a wobbly road to unwind decades of unconstitutional regulatory overreach in nearly every sector
No doubt that domestic energy will have priority status under the next administration and that bodes well for GulfSlope and other E&P companies
My biggest concern with the developments of this past week, including the debate, is that our country’s weaknesses have been laid bare to the whole world
Anyone who was still in denial of the state of our leadership and the ongoing charade of pretending we are led by elected representatives, has been presented with undeniable evidence that the commander in chief is incapacitated
The absurd notion that this is shocking news to the entire Democrat party and nearly every news organization is extremely disturbing
Equally troubling is the impotence of congress to act swiftly on behalf of our nation to preserve our constitutional republic in this continuing crisis
I do retain my core confidence and optimism but I do believe that the road to the upcoming election will be marred by desperate, destructive, evil deeds from those who fear losing power (or fear being held accountable for their actions)
Laws don’t matter to criminals and we’re far from “out of the woods” on a number of critical issues
If we can get through a fair and legal election, I am confident in a huge surge of national pride and productivity
The entirety of the free world is cheering for us
To a great future, cheers!
To the hard recovery ahead, count me in!
spec
Quite a while back I stated that I thought we were in the early stages of a commodities super cycle unlike anything in my lifetime
I’m amazed at how myopic that seemingly grandiose prediction appears to me now
- this is relevant to the future of GulfSlope as it directly affects the financial markets in their sector
Now I see that in a bigger picture, both geographically and spanning centuries, that the underlying dynamics are much stronger fundamental forces of civilization itself
“WW3” as a term for a global conflict has numbed our sense of disdain for combat and destruction
Yet here we are with every major world power engaged either militarily or through trade/sanction warfare
Bigger than the USA
Bigger than geopolitical differences
It appears to me that the underlying conflict has been brewing for decades
Democracy is not at stake
Civilization is at stake for future generations
I am confident that I am as prepared as I can be and that I am pushing forward in the right direction
Cheers to a grand future
spec
Kraken’s SP stalling at this level appears to be speaking more to Canada’s economic concerns than to any concerns about Kraken’s value going forward
Pushing past the break even point while still investing heavily in talent and scaling production, is certainly a testament to the growth trajectory
They’ve publicly stated that the military and asset protection sub sectors are taking off “like someone lit a match to it”
And they produce the order flow to match their bullish stance
Without question, our global shipping and energy markets are at greater risk of being targeted by rogue state asymmetric warfare than ever before
Subsea drones will flourish just as airborne drones have become prominent features of the battle space
KRKNF is in exactly the right place at exactly the right time
spec
That’s a good question and I was wondering if anyone here had made any buy or sell transactions after the grace period ended
There have been a few ticks on the tape but nothing significant
If anyone has made a transaction, please chime in
And bossi, if you are able to get a buy, please let us know how it went
WTI finished just over $80 without any conviction on the short trend
A fine Strawberry Moon and Summer Solstice to all and hoping everyone is able to acquire their favorite tan pattern at this stage of the year
I have accomplished a great “boat bum” tan
Just a Hawaiian shirt, shorts, and shades
Everything else is a uniform tan with sun-bleached hair
No flip flop or wristwatch tan lines (that would be a Key West tan)
Gotta have priorities, like staying hydrated
Cheers
spec
Hmmmmmm, I missed this article
V-ger must have been offline
— Published April 2024 —
https://www.hgs.org/conversation-hgs-legend-john-seitz
A Conversation with HGS Legend John Seitz
John Seitz was named to the inaugural class of “HGS Legends in Wildcatting” in 2000, along with George Mitchell, Joe Foster, Marlan Downey and Gene Van Dyke. At that time, Seitz was nearly 25 years into his career and in senior leadership roles with Anadarko Petroleum, where he led successful exploration campaigns in Algeria and Nigeria, among others.
Seitz hasn’t slowed down in the twenty-four years since being named a Legend. He rose to the role of President and CEO of Anadarko before departing in 2003. Seitz then co-founded North Sea New Ventures that became Endeavor International, where he led key discoveries in the North Sea. In 2014, he co-founded GulfSlope Energy, where he is currently the President, CEO and COO.
Over his nearly 50-year career Seitz has learned key lessons about being a successful geologist: learning from mistakes, valuing commercial skills, and staying close to the technical work. These lessons, along with a passion for exploration, keep him going even when the commercial landscape for exploration is challenging.
Be willing to learn from mistakes
Seitz says one of the core lessons he learned at Anadarko was to make data-driven decisions and be willing to learn from mistakes. He describes that it is critical to document the basis for a decision and then to “thoroughly post-appraise” the outcome of the decision. Seitz stresses that the post-appraisal process is not intended to find a guilty party, but instead to understand whether decision-makers took unnecessary risk.
Good technical decisions are based good data. “You have to invest in science—the data, the people and tools. Not to invest is a mistake,” Seitz says. Once the data is gathered, the next step is to build a portfolio of opportunities. The third step is to balance the portfolio with a mix of risk v. reward probabilities. “Balance your gut feel with confidence from data,” he says. Seitz explains that with each success at Anadarko he was given more room “to run faster, run harder.”
Commercial skills are as essential as technical skills
“Early in my career, I was frustrated that my prospects weren’t getting funded,” says Seitz. He entered an MBA program at University of Houston in 1976 where he learned foundational economic and commercial skills. Although he didn’t complete the program, he says the skills he learned allowed him to view opportunities differently and bring forward prospects that had both technical and commercial potential. “The ability to speak the language of returns helped me to get into management,” he says.
In the past two decades, Seitz has been trying to get prospects funded by capital markets or private equity. He says the ability to raise risked capital is just as important has having good technical opportunities, but the skill sets are very different. Seitz notes that engineers have an advantage because they typically are involved more than geologists on economic evaluations.
Raising capital has a been challenge. “You earn your stripes well to well,” he says. While at Endeavor, Seitz had a 61% success rate of exploration and appraisal wells. Endeavor’s discoveries and appraisals included the 30 MBO Rochelle field. Another Endeavor appraisal well confirmed that the Cygnus discovery was one of the largest North Sea discoveries in recent history (AMEX_END_2008.pdf (annualreports.com). These successes, however, were not enough to keep investors motivated through the development phase and the company was closed in 2014.
When Seitz co-founded GulfSlope, he intended to raise capital for drilling prospects. However, GulfSlope’s launch was coincident with the 2014-15 shale boom and subsequent industry downturn. Seitz laments that today’s investors want to put their capital towards unconventionals or Energy Transition projects rather than exploration. “Sometimes it feels like butting my head against the wall,” says Seitz, “But we are still going.”
Stay close to the technical work
Seitz says that his last role at Anadarko was too far away from the people conducting the technical work. Similarly, he finds board roles weren’t sufficiently satisfying because he was too far removed from technical decisions. Seitz jokes that he prefers to be no more than “three offices away” from the landman and the geologist because it allows for efficient decision-making. “It’s all about the people, their creativity, and the small role I can play of having my ideas contribute to the process,” he says.
Similarly, it is critical to have a strong technical team whose skills complement one another. The days of the “sole contributor” are over, says Seitz. Specialized skills are needed to understand each aspect of the risk profile to make good decisions. While it is easier to learn those skills at a big company, it’s most important to work for a company that values learning, he says.
Going forward
Reflecting on the current push for renewables, Seitz says that the Energy Transition is not likely to happen quickly, and hydrocarbons will continue to play an important role going forward. He also reflects on the positive impact of hydrocarbons to economies around the world. “Oil means jobs and jobs mean stability,” explains Seitz.
Throughout his nearly fifty years in the Oil and Gas business, Seitz says he has learned to “stick to your guns.” Although he is currently looking for the right producing property to acquire, he plans to continue working to convince investors in the value of exploration and production and to seek like minded partners.
Some recent info on the stonewalling to cripple domestic energy production
https://naturalresources.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=416075
Just barely back on the grid, what a week that was!
Doing it in style
spec
Roth MKM puts a price target of $8 on $EGY
Someone here agrees
spec
Exactly, they have the data and samples to know what they found at the point where the drilling fluids were no longer controlled as planned
If it had been unfavorable data, there wouldn’t have been any talk of redrilling
Nor would GulfSlope have kept up payments to retain the lease (and other financial obligations for abandonment)
I’m pretty certain that they have a good chance of getting the resources to conduct another drilling operation when political obstruction is removed
Lots of unknowns with Delek due to the ongoing war but history shows that fossil fuels will play an important part of global GDP for decades ahead
Delek has clearly demonstrated success in E&P as well as their interests in diversifying their operations geographically
No better place than the GOM at this time (imminent shift in policy) for Delek to pursue another big stated goal, IMO
No better place than the Big Rock for me today and Starlink mobile version is awesome
We’re not on the leader board yet but fishing is hot and we’re having a blast
Break time over, gotta get back to “work”, LOL
Cheers
spec
WTI climbing back toward $80, currently $79
Any day now ….
spec
Interesting info, thanks
I get the general drift of most of it and subsalt is a highly technical task
Not for the weak hearted bean counters, victory is just not in their genes
If GulfSlope gets a chance at bat again, the prize is still there
A change in policy is all that is needed to make GOM E&P bloom like desert flowers when a long drought ening shower arrives
Public perception (and market sentiment on energy issues) is bending in a favorable direction
Cheers
spec
WTI sideways generally ~ $75
Gas at the pump -refreshingly low prices for the early summer driving season
The Big Rock Blue Marlin Tournament kicks off tomorrow so I will be personally responsible for some diesel consumption this week
Thank you
And thank me for calling this a terrible speculation for sooo many months
Waiting to drill Tau2 is easy for Delek, they’re besieged on all sides by hostile fire, both figuratively and literally
GOM E&P is secondary to more pressing management issues for them
A fresh round of attacks on oil majors is making headlines with house representatives accusing “Big Oil” of price gouging and the UN Secretary General’s call for a windfall profit tax on oil companies
So on one hand, Big Oil is criticized for high prices while others are planning to levy additional taxes (which inevitably pass through as higher cost to consumers)
So much diversity …..
Rocket scientists are in their glory years while world leaders fail basic economics and arithmetic
WTI back to mid $70s as faltering economies portend softening demand
GulfSlope has been in detailed discussions related to purchasing producing properties and Delek most likely has too
Thursday throwback - can you even remember what life was like before Covid?
Cheers
spec
$EGY Vaalco presentation today 11AM Eastern, check website for registration details on upcoming live event (with replay available later)
EGY belongs north of $8 yet it’s hovering at $6 currently
Cheers
spec
Thank you, I do have more than a fair share of luck, hopefully that continues unabated
And my use of “yacht” as a label is an old habit and a considerable deviation from the classic definition
My definition is a tongue in cheek nod to any vessel primarily for pleasure use
My current “yacht” is a simple center console (with a few excellent details)
So there’s military, workboats, yachts, and everything else that floats
The first three live on fossil fuels (as does most of the last group) and I need a few more decades of stable oil prices to fully enjoy my planned retirement activities
So I am counting on small independent E&P companies (like GulfSlope) be part of the surge to meet the projected demands
Confident in my vision and my luck
Confidence in DC? Not so much … (at this time)
WTI swoops below $75 and too many other global instabilities to even try to summarize, just hang on tight, turbulence expected!
I have the specs covered (no surprise) but always accepting lessons on redfish
Cheers
spec
Just another week of instability across the globe
I would bet large that there isn’t a single leader of a country who ..
…. has had a face to face conversation longer than 5 minutes with the current president and still thinks he’s capable of making any decisions on his own regarding any major topic
It’s beyond humiliating to Americans
It is most likely terrifying to our allies
Our IRS and DOJ were weaponized more than a decade ago
Now our justice system has devolved from the recent 2-tier system, it’s not even a shell of what used to be the single most essential defining feature of the nation that defended the freedoms of its people
I’m plenty pissed off about it too
The bogus conviction last night of the leading candidate for the presidential election is certainly a shining example of absurdity
The investment climate in the fossil fuel sector is still dismal but just as the pendulum has swung very far to one said, it will swing back with great force
The waiting is the hard part now
If there’s a deal in the works in draft form, it’ll get jumping quickly if our next election swings to the right
Yeah, it could be a big letdown too if no partner steps up
I think it will be a crazy road to 2025 but it’ll be great if it goes as I expect it to
WTI slips a little bit to high $70’s
China wraps its “loving arms” around Taiwan, is it a prelude to aggression (yeah, most likely, dang!)
Cheers
spec
WTI pushes upward to $80
No relief from the global chaos, 2 hot wars, skyrocketing debts undermining geopolitics, several recent “political” assassinations
“But the market still rises to record highs” they say
It’s all relative
Currently, there are far better opportunities and conditions for investment in the US and US based companies than in most other countries
Not just my opinion, it’s being put forth by several analysts
So, global market sentiment is bringing capital into the US markets and keeping the bubble inflated
Sentiment is a fickle thing, it can go bad very quickly
Stay safe and diversified
Well refreshed from several days on my yacht and the scent of coconut oil still lingers in my olfactory bulb
I hope everyone has been mindful of the fallen soldiers who have defended our liberty from the earliest days of the United States to present day
We can’t imagine the pain and suffering that will come if we let those liberties be taken away
Not on my watch
GLTA
spec
The tape was 90% buys till the last 30 minutes and still was 65% buys at the close
Higher than normal volume so it’s a significant shift as more shareholders lean in
About time
spec
I think I have a solution for a big part of the problem
I nominate smith199 to be the next Secretary of Energy
Seriously, she’s got 10X the brain power of the current cabinet combined
Good post Mrs Smith
spec
CLNE resumes the slide toward the drain
Are any board readers trading/scalping these bumps?
It’s a real slick trick move with a ticker that’s been over-hyped and still bleeding cash profusely
Watch yourself, don’t step on your trick
Cheers
spec
Monday mayhem SITREP
Crude markets fairly stable with WTI at $80 despite the continued hot wars
One notable individual event over the weekend was the death on the Iranian president and several high level officials in a helicopter crash
Rumors immediately following the crash had fingers pointed at various conspiracy theories regarding it being a possible assassination
Understandable, considering the rash of assassinations in several countries over the last couple years
Probably just an accident in fog
One more late filing notification was filed recently by GulfSlope
Again, there is no reason to file anything unless the path forward is positive and includes the public trading of GSPE shares
I think it is very likely that GulfSlope will be reignited in conjunction with the policy changes anticipated in the next administration
Israel (the home country of GSPE’s partner Delek), is continuing the assault on its enemies Hamas and Hezbollah with determination
Yes, I am an optimistic person and I’m good with holding onto my shares pending the likely shift toward favorable domestic energy production policies
For now, I will wait for the next chance to slap that ASK hard
Cheers
spec
Play it again Sam
Another NT for GSPE (no new info)
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341726/000199937124006150/gspe_nt10q-033124.htm
spec
More interference in the fossil fuel sector and tariffs on China on several fronts
Schumer weaponized the FTC again with pressure to reject the Chevron/Hess merger by falsely claiming it would increase gas prices
More lip service to the leftist wing
Similarly, new tariffs on aluminum, steel, EVs, etc from China are just pandering to the base
Worse than just a mistake, it’s another attack on the middle class on both counts
If only there was a discernible pattern to these blunders…..
The debates between Biden an Trump have been set and if Joe can make it that far it’s going to be cringe for libs
WTI still sideways in the high $70’s
I agree that the info brought forward by Mrs Smith is sobering
It’s cause for genuine concern
… but I don’t think it’s the kind of sobering that will get me out of a DUI
spec
Excellent info, and spot on!
Well, except for giving Joe credit for failing so completely that it’s becoming clear how bone-headed some of these political games are
The limit of his capabilities is midway between mumbling and stumbling
He’s the figurehead of course and projecting the criticism on him is justified
We know it’s the whole wing of the Democrat party who’s the orchestra of this tragedy
Nobody carries a baton so it’s not clear who’s in charge
It’s the global humiliation of western civilization and honestly, I think it’s a bit terrifying to intelligent people worldwide
I do share the optimism
America regaining its strength will be a great lift to mankind
Cheers
spec
WTI still high 70’s on mixed headlines/data
Well, here’s a new variable in the mix
Severe geomagnetic storms from solar flares and CMEs starting now through the weekend
Kp8 and level 4 geomagnetic storms predicted
Plays havoc with everything from power grids to electronics and computer systems
Crude holds just shy of the $80 mark and the trend was sideways for the week
The potato can’t be seriously considered a candidate but nobody’s going to reveal who the DNC will nominate until the very last minute
Have a safe weekend and be careful with your UVB and gamma dosages
Cheers
spec
Kraken Robotics is an exhibitor at the Offshore Technology Conference this week (today is the last day) so there might have been some added opportunities for finalizing contracts
Don’t know if it might have triggered the 2 most recent contract announcements but it’s possible
In any case, there’s ample evidence of a long runway and a rapidly expanding market opportunity
Makin’ hay
spec
Alerts can be set to inform you when SEC filings are posted
I suggest that anyone that owns stocks to set an alert for every ticker in their port and any that they are considering
Bad news is typically much more valuable to catch ASAP
don’t be the last to know
This latest 8-K on the $9M received is good news and should give the SP a lift
OMEX certainly has changed over the years
I’m still appalled that OMEX was torpedoed by (you know who) on the Mercedes
I owned some back then so I was once again robbed by crooked politicians
Ocean minerals and mining will be growing, but in spurts, IMO
On watch
spec
I don’t think you’re very far from the sentiment of the OTC attendees on the energy policies currently in place
Needs big changes to eliminate the political “gaming” for votes
More and more, people are seeing right through it
Basically, if you’re not appalled at the conditions and regulations that are applied purely for personal or political gain, you’ve been played, IMO
Market interference by weaponized regulatory control, picking winners and losers through control of government contracts/subsidies, and cabinet-level incompetence across many sectors besides energy
An ignorant, volunteer infantry of (insert various protest group names) is their shield
What will they chant today?
I can’t wait for this clown show to be over so that real Americans can lead our return to prosperity through excellence in personal performance
I think there’s probably a lot more foreign support and hopes for a strong and prosperous USA than what is visible today to most people
The fourth estate has collapsed into a steaming pile
The fifth estate is under attack
All eyes open for the truth, it’s out there
Cheers
spec
The Offshore Technology Conference is underway today through Thursday at the NRG park in Houston
If anyone is attending, it might be interesting to keep an eye out for shelf drilling info/activity/tempo and other general GOM buzz
It’s usually a stimulus for some big contracts and M&A announcements
If I’m able, I’ll scan through the lineup and any online presentation info to see if there’s anything that might shed some light
Cheers
spec
You have an eye for quality
She’s a beauty
spec
There seems to be a real market valuation disconnect here
$160M USD market cap
Projected revenue ~$160M for fiscal ‘24
Total assets >$70M
Solid margins and profitability
Best in Class products
CRADA
Multiple nations purchased large orders including spares and training support
VERY strong ramp in government/military pursuit of subsea equipment and services
Currently trading at 1.5X fiscal 2024 revenue
Not yet getting the market sentiment that it deserves
Not sure what will change that, but it will change
Cheers
spec