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China has shown strong gas imports in 2024...
https://lngprime.com/asia/china-boosts-gas-imports-in-may/114212/
so we watch...LJ
VTLE CEO has some explaining to do If
they only increase production about
4 mboe/day in 4th quarter after spending
over 1.1 billion on latest acquisitions...
page 24 for 3rd quarter production...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=17030559&guid=NsJ-kKqjA3cmB3h
page 13 for latest guidance...
https://investor.vitalenergy.com/static-files/57d5e9bc-3e09-467a-98c6-3c712de00f2c
Numbers are hinting at some new
leader changes needed...
A billion dollars is still supposed to
buy a lot even with inflation...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE $837 million market cap, over $1,700,000,000 revenue
on four times recent quarterly revenue...
$435 million quarterly revenue x two quarters
= $870 million and higher than current
market cap...TWO quarters of revenue...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/VTLE/security
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=17030559&guid=bK5-kaH2vzTCaBh
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vital-energy-reports-third-quarter-202500879.html
This compares apples to apples of history...
*Thou shall not compare new, higher share
count without also having the new revenue
from much higher production post acquisitions...
This is real and not scy-fy...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE below $80/share with $77/bbl. WTI shows
there is a pricing problem by the
MMs in the oil sector...
VTLE won't be losing that projected
money on hedging in the 4th quarter on
over 40,000 bbls/day of oil production at
around $76/bbl hedge prices if oil stays down...
https://investor.vitalenergy.com/static-files/1412b460-5bad-4d3e-b2af-be059e0f9f89
Managers made those hedging contracts
to back up their biz plan...
Market pricing now on VTLE is saying
that those Managers have no idea what
they are doing...
Doesn't look to me like the market pricers
know what they are doing...
So we watch...LJ
'the proof of the pudding is in
the eating'...
Did Forge light up production?...
Should be known soon enough...
So we watch...LJ
Will VTLE be adding 2nd quarter,2024 natural
gas hedges now at better prices?...
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/NGU23/futures-prices
To help reduce downside potential
like happened in 2nd quarter, 2023?...
Will VTLE have all operations winterized
on both new acquisitions before December?...
CC misses some good questions...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE, about 14% increase in quarterly oil production
in 2nd quarter, 2023 over the 1st
quarter, 2023 production guided...
It didn't look priced in at around
$70/bbl. oil price...now it's $80/bbl...
44,000 bbls/day over 38,500 bbls/day...
about 5,500 bbls/day increase quarterly...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vital-energy-provides-select-preliminary-205000697.html
Hard to see any credit yet for the
quarterly oil production growth...
Need to see that some before...
Latest acquisition boosts oil production
again in 3rd quarter handsomely,
which is forward looking thingy...
Share price seems to have room to
grow to catch up with production growth...
Folks looking back at financials for 2022
with Sky High receipt prices seem to be
missing the current growth story...
Handsome is nice looking growth...
Peon opinion, of course...
So we watch...LJ
NOG and VTLE completed Forge acquisition...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nog-announces-closing-forge-delaware-200500216.html
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=16767348&guid=U_D-keDrQVj4B3h
short and sweet...
So we watch...LJ
When the demand curve heats back up we’ll start to see the push higher in crude, IMO
China is slacking but it’s inevitable that they’ll burn through the inventory as their consumption gets back to the longer term trend
VTLE isn’t getting any love yet but that was a great acquisition
spec
U.S. Commercial Oil Inventory is 2% below
the five year average for this
time of year...
Gasoline inventories 8% lower than
five year average this time of year...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
Going into summer...
May SSTs in 2023 were much warmer
in Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean
than in past four years...
Caribbean is south of Gulf of Mexico...
Buyers may be on Tropical vacations...
So we watch...LJ
06/01/21, VTLE $65+ /share, WTI $73+ /bbl...
06/01/23, VTLE $43 /share,
06/01/23 WTI $70+ /bbl...
'What we have here, is a lack of
appreciation'...
https://hfir.substack.com/p/the-saudi-put?r=f2v8q&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
So we watch...LJ
VTLE is going west young man, to
pursue increasing production...
https://investor.vitalenergy.com/static-files/02ceb567-66db-49a0-952c-f53d4a93ccb7
Did you hear a creaking sound
this evening...
It may be the recliners of a completion
crew moving back to horizontal...
A better oil price could see them put
back to work again...
Peon guessing on that...
Can you imagine oil production approaching
50,000 bbls/day, without increased
share count, if the oil price starts
stumbling up in 3rd quarter?...
So we watch...LJ
Slick willy name change didn't get any
retail voting support...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=16685001&guid=Mqu-kFsYtmI-B3h
Out of touch with shareholders
shows in share price too...
No idea what this means, if anything...
So we watch...LJ
U.S drilling rig count drops sharply to
start May, 2023...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Gas-Drilling-Activity-In-US-Sees-Largest-Single-Week-Drop-Since-Mid-2020.html
U.S. oil production showed a peak
of 12.4 million barrels per day in
April of 2023...
Any fly on the wall might now expect
the U.S. oil production declines to
continue as unconventional wells rushed
to be drilled in 2022 start entering their
natural decline stages,,,without more
drilling going on than is currently...
Flies also swarm to sweet deals that
come along with product price drops...
Has VTLE been watching fly videos
on U-Tube?...
They appeared to swarm quick...
So we watch...LJ
unVital Energy needs a page on website
that lists weekly share buybacks
made for each week...
To help make shareowners feel better
every month when price gets dropped...
And if the company isn't buying back
ultra cheap shares by the bucketfulls,
then shareowners can reassess,,,
if any remember the pump when the
buyback program was announced...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE share price is about equal to operating
cash flow per share if you use
the 4th quarter, 2022 numbers
that were at lower sale prices...
https://investor.vitalenergy.com/static-files/29ef5b4a-0804-4fc4-b738-7373a687cf09
If VTLE didn't do any Capex then
that operating revenue would be
more like net profit...of course that
won't happen...
But there should be an extra frac crew
getting released now that isn't forcast
to be used for rest of 2023 that reduces
budgets in quarters not used...
Just me, but I'm believing that those
crews might get called back in by
August or September if oil price moves
up like possible...LNG prices are mostly
headed up as well...
Current share price is now about 12%
lower or about $6/share lower than
around $48/share that was used for
the 01/01/23 deal done due for final
closing in April,2023...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vital-energy-announces-midland-basin-220800231.html
Now that has been a surprise...
Share price has stayed at a deal
for longer than most short drops...
1st,quarter, 2023 results will be the
first year with mostly pure results,
without bad hits from hedges, since
I started watching the company, and
should be refreshing to see...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE is priced like on a struggling, emerging
market listing where valuation
doesn't help share price...
Very un-American look to it now
in the share price...
So we watch...LJ
Less than stellar 4th quarter earnings have
been known for many months...
Those nasty, low ball, Oil hedges
fell off at end of 2022...
VTLE is very mispriced to downside...
Calender offers odd setup ahead
which could add to a prospect for
pre-earnings rebound...
Monday is a market holiday and
Tuesday is earnings day...
Guidance on Tuesday could bury shorts
that hold thru Friday close...
Highly speculative, of course...
So we watch...LJ
It feels like the overall market is flowing cash out of equities for a couple months now (a few talking heads have been trumpeting it too)
Getting defensive to weather.whatever recession we will tumble through in the next 12-18 months
I’m onboard and prepared for that shift too but I haven’t been scaling back on energy because I think oil, in particular, will outperform again this year
It would take a series of improbable events tho align in order for there to be a situation where WTI would be under $75-80 for long
Much more likely that demand growth will proceed at a somewhat slower pace and prices will hinge on production and midstream dynamics
Stalling our domestic energy sector was a stupid move by the swamp creatures and permanently damaged our nation’s economy
We will recover, but the loss cannot be restored
And we don’t start a real recovery for domestic energy until the house can make tangible progress on drilling, pipelines, and refineries
So many disastrous policies, not enough ducks to stamp out the fires
An injury has me sidelined a bit
I’ll call it a skiing accident because it doesn’t sound as stupid as the real story
And my rotator cuff doesn’t know the difference anyway
I am anxious to see your short theory play out, you’re most likely correct
spec
sector sentiment has improved recently...
so we watch...LJ
BlackRock likes your choices too
16% holder of VTLE
I hope they didn’t get burned too much on the Brinkman FTC scam
spec
VTLE - a pretty dramatic improvement in the de-leveraging and it shows on the balance sheet
It'll pay off in share price as momentum builds and the money flow into the energy sector big names begins to trickle over into tickers like VTLE
The chart is showing some conviction, IMO
spec
VTLE overmanipulated down at 1 p/e
price when cvx and xom are trading
at 9 to 10 p/e multiples...
Could be a take over artist working
in the trading churn...
Nothing else to explain it...
So we watch...LJ
VTLE looking good after the ticker change mayhem
That was a pretty significant short interest going into the rebranding, interested to see how those stats resolve in time
spec
You might find gold in the tailings...
So we watch...LJ
Picked up some VTLE average mid $46 and it is curious how it trades on the latest info
The ticker change is clunky, but sheesh!
I’m stuck on a phone size screen a lot more in recent days but some office time coming soon to drill down deeper
Strong production and we should be looking at almost certain increases in crude prices for 2023
spec
VTLE $48, LPI at about $59/share book value
at 3rd, quarter, 2022 end...
About $100 million of debt repurchased
and reduced in 4th quarter, 2022 per
latest Investor Presentation...
Could add about $6/share more book value...
https://investor.vitalenergy.com/static-files/da3f9dbf-cd2c-4ca2-bb42-edfdb1964b64
year end 2022 annual adjustments for
oil/gas pricing will adjust book value...
$20 per share net earnings were reported
for 3rd quarter, 2022...reducing derivative
changes would convert to about $14/share...
hard to guess where derivative changes move...
$14/share quarterly earnings on annual
basis yields about $56/share projected earnings
without derivatives,,,
or 1 p/e at $56/share for $56/share earnings...
Minimal earnings were recorded in 3rd, quarter,
2022 for the asset sale reported...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/filing/html?id=16175536&guid=_Xs-kqrcf5u4MVh
$337 million more of net earnings for 4th
quarter of 2022 would be nice to see like
came in 3rd quarter, 2022, but the share
price reflects much lower expectations...
Could be some foggy mirror thingies causing
those low expectations though...
Should still be plenty of money in the coffers
to fund buying back cheap shares now too...
Investor Presentation...
#WAHA gas prices reported for 4th quarter
of 2022 were a relief to see after the Port
shut in on the coast had energy sector
holders fretting over that item, hopefully
similar prices were averaged by others...
So we watch...LJ
Could former LPI shorts get squeezed?...
LPI has been buying back shares and
there could be lower shares out than
last stated...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LPI/key-statistics?p=LPI
Institutions and Funds report owning
about 12 million of the shares out...
rough estimate only...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LPI/holders?p=LPI
If the unshorted float is around 2 million
or less shares it makes ya wonder?...
Could a change to VTLE start a squeeze
event on those brave shorts?...
Or do low float, net profit making listed
companies just make easy shorts?...
So we watch and wonder...LJ
LPI to VTLE - looks good for a run from here
Good to have you back littlejohn
spec
VTLE , around 55 is needed for my green fields
to sprout new growth after this
bitter, winter cold snap...
https://www.okenergytoday.com/2022/12/laredo-to-be-rebranded-vital-energy/
One of these days the sun will be
out and birds singing again...
So we watch...LJ
Nice swing trade potential for $60-$80
Seems to be trending sideways with some bounce off a solid bottom ~$60 with enough energy and liquidity to keep things interesting
spec
odd move, lowers production and sale of
Howard County assets is a head
scratcher after Leech drilling left
LPI tucking tails in 2nd quarter...
Howard County has been the driver
to increase oil percentage production...
Decent for a short term pump item
but looks odd to me...
so we watch...LJ
@LPI getting some boost on the divestment
spec
LPI needs more disclosure in 10Q reporting
on Capex spending...
$135 million spent in 2nd quarter
should be detailed for shareholders...
Well drilling activity detailed in a
10Q filing seems like common sense...
And when the big monkeys take down
a share price, the shareholders would
have more detailed info on a course
for their own actions...
So we watch...LJ
Why did LPI pay most on lowest rate
note and farthest out in 2nd quarter?...
Debt reduction strategy should focus
cash flow on highest rate debt first...
That gives best return to shareholders
by reducing interest cost...
1st quarter presentation...
http://www.laredopetro.com/media/385946/june-2022-investor-presentation.pdf
2nd quarter presentation...
http://www.laredopetro.com/media/387852/q2-2022-earnings-presentation.pdf
OUCH...$172 million of shareholder
cash paid out for hedging losses in
2nd quarter set up by management...
Maybe the starter question is a waste
of time...
It was up from $125 million of shareholder
cash paid out in 1st quarter for losses
on hedges...
No one can say this management can't
grow anything...
So we watch...LJ
Where are the buyback pumpers for LPI today?...
so we watch...LJ
Last one out, turn out the lights...
so we watch...LJ
LPI reports bigger losses on hedging natural gas
and oil the higher the prices
go up...
Need prices to drop before
jumping for joy a lot...
Wait for those 2nd quarter earning's
release blues to buy cheaper...
At least dilution rose on Tuesday...
https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/LPI/disclosure
If they can get that 10% interest
debt and 8% interest debt payed
off, then they should be able to
justify share buy backs...
So we watch...LJ