Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
The market won’t make Anavex 2-73.
Shape ain’t right for toxicity.
Two perspectives: Before or after an FDA decision.
Of course...
No, it’s the stock message board effect.
It’s not just my defense.
The lack of evidence of unsafety or inefficacy.
Again, the profound blarcamesine safety factor.
The turning point to come.
Like the trends.
Well, I purchased a few hundred AVXLs this morning, at $18.52. It’s my first purchase in several years; had a few discretionary dollars to put to work (well, bet on increasing value of AVXL). At the end of the trading day, very satisfied.
I then listened to the segments of the online conference call that weren’t silent. Everything I heard confirmed my expectations; all positive. When the transcript gets posted, I’ll scrutinize everything and re-evaluate. But with Rett results out in the second half of the year, Christmas may be rather joyous. Those data points will substantiate in humans the blarcamesine mechanism of action (MOA), activating the sigma-1 receptor protein, with all of the consequent good things in neurons. The murine (lab rodent) data are revolutionary, but discounted because mice aren’t men (or girls with Rett syndrome).
When the Rett and Alzheimer’s trials data are released, late this year and into next, postings on the Anavex Ihub board (this one) will be different. Gonna be hard to tell how bad Missling is, and how blarcamesine is a failure.
From the start of my interest (and equity investment) in Anavex Life Sciences Corp a number of years ago I’ve always looked to 2023 to be the year of the company’s operating success. It will then be selling blarcamesine across much of the globe, for a diversity of indications. Right now, my composite AVXL cost basis price is $2.33. In a few years, should I be liquidating any of my position (have no intention of doing so), I’d have some substantial capital gains taxes. Instead, I intend to hold my position, reap eventual dividends, but pass the position on to my estate beneficiaries, my wife and children.
Everything trending as anticipated; slowly but deliberately.
Blarcamesine can replace Aricept, immediately.
No competition; nothing else can work.
The Ponce de León Effect.
But, what’s at stake?
Well, blarcamesine is bad, regardless.
Extremely powerful, at minute dosages.
They know, as do we.
Our postings; and Dr. Hagerman’s.
No MOA competition.
Stuck in the past.
Read a new article in Science today, the weekly journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS): Treatments for Alzheimer’s disease emerge.
And, of course, the words “Anavex,” “blarcamesine,” or “sigma-1 receptor” did not appear. Focus was solely on beta-amyloids and tau tangles.
Some verbiage on immunological approaches (Biogen’s Aduhelm, etc.).
Of course, the author is an “expert,” at Ann Romney Center for Neurologic Diseases, Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.
Cherries and watermelons.
Nothing changes until sales approval happens.
Results of the Alzheimer’s prophylaxis trial.
No effects whatsoever.
Important correction.
I just got a private message from a frequent, very helpful board member. I appreciate his message to me. VERY important (and accurate).
He notes that I made this claim: "As noted previously, blarcamesine, against Alzheimer’s, is effective in about 80% of those with the disease."
But here’s the correction:
Product advancement.
Contract likely to be signed.
The potential of Anavex 3-71
First, for myself and many others, I want to commend georgejjl for his always-informative and detailed posts; information buried in the dozens of papers and studies on Anavex molecules. George, you so helpfully pull out and post the most information needed to understand the deep science of Anavex. Your postings continue to highlight and validate the science that will make Anavex Life Sciences Corp a major pharmaceutical in a few years. Our thanks.
For example, your new post included this:
But a love of what sort?
Pretty deep, but phenomenally significant.
Good question.
Very different.
Are the institutional owners of AVXLs ignorant?
So what. How do they compare?
Obfuscation, clearly.
No, 2022, next year.
SAVA and ANVS. Why?
This, of course, is the iHub AVXL message board. The best online compendium of Anavex information, just in front of Anavex’s recent update presentation: http://www.anavex.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Anavex-Presentation-July-2021.pdf
To be pondered are the frequent postings laying out (to a minor degree) information on ANVS, SAVA, and a few other equities. Why are those so frequently mentioned on this board? Please tell: are the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) or the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) constrained to approve only a single drug for the CNS (central nervous system) diseases in the Anavex pipeline; Rett syndrome, Parkinson’s disease dementia, or Alzheimer’s disease? How, in any way, does the consideration for drug use of the products of other pharmaceuticals affect or disqualify in any way a future application of blarcamesine by Anavex Life Sciences Corp?
Fact is, the FDA will approve blarcamesine based solely on its clinical results which, based upon all of the pre- and early clinical data, and efficacious MOA, mechanism of action, will be exceptionally good. When they get Anavex’s New Drug Application (FDA), there will be no information presented or considered on any other new drug owned by SAVA, ANVS, or any other company. To get a new drug approved it must either equal or exceed the efficacies of any existing drugs. For Alzheimer’s, there are but a few; all of which provide only the slightest therapeutic efficacy. Blarcamesine has no competition; its therapeutic outcomes for all three targeted CNS diseases will greatly exceed both the existing and in-trial drugs of any other company.
So, why the awkwardly imposing discussions of matters SAVA, etc. on this board? They are utterly irrelevant. They belong on their own message boards. Usefully, I simply skip or delete any such postings I’m burdened with on this otherwise information-dense message board. The Delete key on my keyboard functions wonderfully.
Of course, some are interested in the pharmaceuticals mentioned on this board solely for short-term trading purposes. Who’s going to make a buck this week on any of the several pharmas that appear here? For those readers, my best wishes. Utterly irrelevant to my goals; to make a very profitable long-term investment (not a trading vehicle). I’ll measure my success at the end of 2023—then continue to retain my AVXL position. I don’t anticipate taking any of my profits (share sales) for many years, if ever. I’m looking for two things from my AVXL position: eventually, rewarding dividends, and, then, dispersal of my position to my estate benefactors upon my demise. That’s all “long term.” I disregard the short-term, day-trading stuff; of no use for me. I’m an investor, not a trader.
Best wishes for all.
Where was this (the Anavex PDF) presented?
Online, for any and all to read.
Number of potential blarcamesine users.
For some future Anavex revenues calculations some numbers have to be used. One of the first ones is the total number of potential individuals who will be taking blarcamesine.
In today’s Anavex presentation it was claimed that in the Americas, in 2015, 9.4 million people were living with dementia; in Europe 10.5 million. To be conservative, I’ll presume there will be 6 million Americans and 6 million Europeans taking blarcamesine in, say, 2024; 12 million in the developed world.
Do your own revenue estimations. You will need to also presume some daily cost of blarcamesine. I’ll presume a day’s dose will cost the patient (well, his insurance company or government) $10. For each patient that would be a yearly cost of $3650. For Anavex that would be gross annual revenues of $3650 x 12 million: $43,800,000,000 ($43.8 billion).
I’ll presume that when that happens there will be one hundred million outstanding AVXL shares. The $43.8 billion of annual gross revenues divided up among those shares would be $438 per share.
Take it from there; estimate the value of a share of AVXL a few years out.
But personally I anticipate that blarcamesine (or Anavex 3-71) will eventually be rather universally prescribed in late middle age (45?) as a general geriatric disease prophylactic, taken by hundreds of millions (at say, $5/day). Count the multitude of zeros in those calculations.
Anavex Headed for Greatness
http://www.anavex.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Anavex-Presentation-July-2021.pdf
Postings have been made about the virtual silence of both Anavex Life Sciences Corp and its CEO, Dr. Christopher Missling. That silence has ended with today’s new presentation. Nothing will be heard from it; it has to be closely read and understood. Missling and company have put together their most important, most definitive presentation ever.
There is not a shadow of doubt concerning the profoundly positive results that all of the three on-going clinical trials will generate. First, the girls with Rett syndrome will gain significant symptomatic relief. Then, in the Parkinson’s disease dementia study cognition will be at least maintained, or in most cases even recovered to some degree. Finally, Alzheimer’s will be very successfully treated with blarcamesine (and probably prevented).
How can these claims of clinical success be confidently made? Simple. There has never been a clinical failure of blarcamesine, either in the many pre-clinical murine (lab rodent) tests, nor in any early-stage human trial. In every case there have been significant, positive outcomes; absent any adverse events (side effects) of any consideration. Unlike virtually all other drugs working on difficult central nervous system (CNS) diseases, blarcamesine is utterly safe.
Then, there are the statistical analyses in all of the trials. All very positive, with strong, accepted statistical significance. Positive clinical results produced by blarcamesine are in no way merely random happenstance. Blarcamesine really does produce very safe and favorable clinical outcomes. Nothing random about them at all.
Then, there is the issue of how this one particular drug might be able to so effectively and safely produce favorable therapeutic outcomes in such a diversity of CNS diseases. How the drug could work in both Parkinson’s disease dementia and Alzheimer’s seems plausible; they have similar debilitations of cognition. But Rett is wholly different, as are most of the other target diseases in the blarcamesine pipeline. Five to eight years ago all of this was still a mystery. No longer. The unique and multiple mechanisms of action (MOAs) of blarcamesine are now known and understood; as depicted and described in the presentation.
Consider; the information presented in the new Anavex presentation shows that blarcamesine beats, by a long margin, any and all other drugs now used to treat the listed CNS diseases. Blarcamesine has no competition. The few other drugs treating CNS diseases work against “downstream” disease processes and outcomes; and not very well. Blarcamesine, by itself, is in a whole new CNS drug category, where by its profound activation of the sigma-1 receptor protein, “upstream” in neuropathology reaction pathways, a diversity of downstream pathologies are “fixed,” obviated. No other drug like it.
The presentation tells in some detail the actual molecular science of blarcamesine. It is not intended to affect or shape the behaviors of stock investors working to make and take trading profits. The presentation will be useful only to those who take a long-term view of Anavex Life Sciences Corp, showing the details of the science of blarcamesine that will make Anavex a major global pharmaceutical. No doubts.