Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

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Nothing changes until sales approval happens.

Perhaps if the trial is large enough they too can add in Covid vaccinated patients and unvaccinated patients and track the progression or lack there of for infection.

No, how the Alzheimer’s prophylaxis trial results will be “understood” is very clear. Yes, Alzheimer’s will be significantly prevented or its onset delayed. Alone, that will be game-changing.

At the same time (during the trial) it will be noted, perhaps only “anecdotally,” that trial participants had other good health benefits. Problem is, those won’t be sufficiently detected or assessed; the trial will focus solely on the appearance of Alzheimer’s. All the other good stuff will be anecdotal, simply reported verbally by participants. “Yep, the Alzheimer’s my mother got, for which I, too, was destined, simply didn’t appear. That’s great. But, not only that, I slept better than any time in my life. I woke up refreshed and could work harder the whole day through. And, I never got a cold or the flue. My blood pressure even went down.”

But nothing beyond the appearance or occurrence of Alzheimer’s will be accepted as “evidence.”

From the start of the Anavex sigma-1 receptor agonist story, one overriding, controlling perspective has been imposed; just as with today’s sell off of AVXLs after the news of the Alzheimer’s prophylaxis trial being planned. It’s this. Everything about the science of the Anavex molecules pushes hard against what is known and believed. It simply can’t be true. If it is (if blarcamesine actually works in humans as it does in lab rodents), the majority of professionals in both medicine and biotech financial advisory positions will be shown to be utterly and tragically wrong. They are the real experts. They have MD and MBA degrees. They KNOW THEIR STUFF, and the stuff of Anavex just can’t be true.

Treating Alzheimer’s with a daily pill taken with a glass of water? Get real. Neurons can’t be fixed that way. Then, even weirder is the notion that that that pill would actually prevent the onset of Alzheimer’s. Just can’t be so.

And that will be the case until real people actually take blarcamesine for a time and hard data show the real benefits of blarcamesine. That probably won’t be until some time in 2023. Then, silence. The Anavex naysayers, in both the medical and investment communities, won’t be heard from again.

Medical professionals since the middle ages have almost universally rejected new information that negated what they learned and believed. It took about three generations (75 yrs?) for the crazy “germ theory” to be finally accepted and applied in both medicine and public health. The experts knew better.

Invisible “germs” causing diseases was a hard thing to accept. Didn’t fit in any way with what was clearly known and believed. With Anavex’s sigma-1 receptor activators, it’s the same situation. Back in med school nobody ever talked about sigma-1 receptor agonists, or any involved pathologies. For Alzheimer’s, “everyone knows” that it’s caused by accumulations of beta-amyloids and tau tangles.

Of course, the only “experts” that count are those in the drug approval positions at the FDA (or the Australian Therapeutic Goods Administration). When, in their ultimate wisdom they approve the sale and therapeutic use of blarcamesine, some general reality of blarcamesine efficacy will begin to prevail. But not until then. Until sales approval of blarcamesine, blarcamesine in particular, and Anavex in general, will continue to be nay-sayed. The experts “know.”